- 1 Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Jackson’s ankle sets the line for an AFC North game with first place in reach
- 2 Baltimore Ravens: 151.5 rushing yards a game, and 10 points in Cleveland without their quarterback
- 3 Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow has 11 touchdowns in five games, and a defense that’s climbed 11 spots
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Jackson’s ankle sets the line for an AFC North game with first place in reach 
Lamar Jackson hasn’t taken a snap since the first half of Week 4. The ankle injury he picked up against Tennessee has kept him out of two straight games, he didn’t practice at all last week, and head coach Jesse Minter still lists him as day-to-day ahead of Sunday’s AFC North game against Cincinnati.
Kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium is 1pm ET on CBS. Baltimore Ravens is 4-2 and sits in a three-way tie for first in the division; Cincinnati is 3-2, half a game back, and arrives off a 31-24 win in Miami.
The spread has moved with every update on Jackson. The opener was Ravens -3 on Sunday night, it dipped to -2.5 on Tuesday with Baltimore Ravens around 1.68 on the moneyline, and it was back to -3 at about 1.98 by Wednesday morning. Roughly 69% of moneyline tickets so far are on the Bengals. The total sits between 50.5 and 51.5.
Last season’s two meetings ended in a split, with each team winning in the other’s stadium. That history and the quarterback uncertainty are why this line hasn’t settled.
We think the Bengals are the better side to hold at +3. Baltimore’s offense without Jackson produced 235 total yards and 10 points in Cleveland last week, and even if he plays, he’ll do it after two weeks without practice.
Both teams play slowly, which matters for the number. Cincinnati ranks 22nd in seconds per play and the Ravens are among the four slowest teams in the league, so fewer possessions keep a three-point spread tighter in real terms.
Baltimore Ravens: 151.5 rushing yards a game, and 10 points in Cleveland without their quarterback 
Jackson’s numbers before the injury explain the line movement. Through four games he completed 70.8% of his passes for 967 yards, six touchdowns and one interception, and he led the NFL in yards per attempt, yards per completion and passer rating. He added 144 rushing yards and a score on 19 carries.
Tyler Huntley has started in his place. Baltimore Ravens beat Atlanta in Week 5, then lost 13-10 in Cleveland in Week 6, a game in which the Ravens led 10-0 after the first quarter and didn’t score again. Huntley threw for 165 yards and a touchdown, and Tyler Loop missed a 49-yard field goal that would have made it 13-3 in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens are 3-1 in Huntley’s last four starts, but 7-12 all-time in games Jackson misses. The running game is what keeps them competitive without him: Baltimore Ravens ranks third in rushing at 151.5 yards per game, and Derrick Henry has 534 yards, fourth in the league, with seven touchdowns.
The defense is solid rather than dominant. Baltimore Ravens allow 310.8 yards per game, 12th in the NFL, and 22 points per game. The offense averages 26 points, a figure built mostly with Jackson on the field.
The betting record is middling. Baltimore is 2-4 against the spread this season, and it has been held scoreless over the final three quarters of its last game.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow has 11 touchdowns in five games, and a defense that’s climbed 11 spots 
Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes to four different receivers in Miami last week, on only 190 passing yards. Through five games he has 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Ja’Marr Chase caught six passes for 77 yards and a score in that win, and Samaje Perine led the team with 68 rushing yards. Cincinnati led by 14 at halftime before holding on late.
The bigger change is on the other side of the ball. The Bengals ranked second-worst in total defense last season. This year they allow 344.2 yards and 21.8 points per game, an 11-place climb in the yardage rankings, and their red-zone defense ranks fourth in touchdown rate.
The offense sits in the middle of the league at 342.8 yards and 25.6 points per game, but it ranks sixth in series conversion rate. Its red-zone touchdown rate is 20th, the one area where drives have stalled.
Cincinnati has been comfortable away from home, going 2-1 on the road and allowing about 20 points per road game. It’s 2-3 against the spread overall and has missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Probable lineup Baltimore Ravens: Not announced at time of publication (Lamar Jackson day-to-day, ankle; Tyler Huntley started the last two games)
Probable lineup Cincinnati Bengals: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Our prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +3
If Jackson plays and looks like the quarterback who led the league in passer rating, Baltimore can win this by more than a field goal. We’d concede that’s the main risk to the pick, and it’s why the line keeps returning to -3.
The evidence we can measure favors Cincinnati. Burrow is healthy and producing, the Bengals’ defense has improved enough to rank fourth in red-zone touchdown rate, and Baltimore scored 10 points in its only full game without Jackson against a division rival. Even a returning Jackson would be playing after two weeks without practice.
Both offenses play slowly, the teams split last season’s meetings on the road, and three points is a meaningful cushion in a game with fewer possessions than usual. We’re taking the Bengals with the points.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply