- 1 Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs: 3-0 against 3-0 in the AFC West
- 2 Las Vegas Raiders Analysis
- 3 Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs: 3-0 against 3-0 in the AFC West 
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday 4 October at Allegiant Stadium, in Week 4 of the NFL season. Kick-off is set for 22h25 Paris time (4:25 p.m. ET).
Both teams arrive unbeaten at 3-0. For the Raiders, this divisional game is the first genuine test of a strong start under head coach Klint Kubiak.
Las Vegas have beaten Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans, scoring 35 points at the Superdome last week. Kansas City have beaten Denver 31-10, Indianapolis 33-30 and Miami 24-10 on the road.
The betting line has moved in an interesting way. Kansas City opened as 5.5-point favourites and drew as much as 95% of the early money, yet the spread dropped to Chiefs -4.5 on 28 September and has stayed there.
The total went the other way, climbing from 45.5 to 47.5 with the public money entirely on the over. On the moneyline, Kansas City are around 65% favourites in the prediction markets.
The rivalry has also been closer than its reputation. Over the last eight meetings, the Raiders are 5-3 against the spread with two outright upsets, and the teams split their two games last season.
That context makes the spread, rather than the winner, the real analytical question. Four and a half points is the margin we need to assess.
The rise in the total also runs against recent history. Four of the last five meetings between these teams finished under the total, which suggests the public money on the over is not built on the head-to-head.
Las Vegas Raiders Analysis 
The Raiders’ 3-0 record rests largely on Kirk Cousins. At 38, the quarterback has provided a steady hand, and Las Vegas have thrown nine touchdown passes over the first three weeks.
The defence has also generated turnovers, with 10 forced fumbles. That ability to win the ball back has helped Kubiak’s team manage games despite an inconsistent offence.
The weakness is on the ground. Las Vegas rank 25th in EPA per rush attempt and 28th in rushing success rate, and second-year running back Ashton Jeanty has not given the offence much support.
The matchup history does not help. Kansas City held Jeanty to 108 yards on 32 carries last season, just 3.38 yards per carry, with no touchdowns across two games.
The receiving corps has also lost an option. Jack Bech suffered a broken arm in the win over the Saints and will be placed on injured reserve.
Without a functioning run game and with one fewer target, Cousins will have to carry the offence against a defence that knows what is coming. That is a heavy load for a quarterback whose team has not yet faced an opponent of this level.
The schedule has also been kind so far. Wins over Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans are a different proposition from an unbeaten Kansas City side coming to town.
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Kansas City Chiefs Analysis 
Patrick Mahomes is playing efficient football. In last week’s win in Miami, he completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns.
That game was still 14-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but Kansas City controlled it for most of the afternoon. The Chiefs did not need to light up the scoreboard to keep the Dolphins at a distance.
The offensive line has produced one of the surprises of the season. Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson, who never played left tackle in college, has held the position while starter Josh Simmons missed the first three games.
The defence is also performing. Kansas City have limited opposing quarterbacks to a 71.9 passer rating over the first three weeks.
The divisional context removes any risk of complacency. Facing an unbeaten Raiders team, Andy Reid’s staff has every reason to prepare this game with full attention.
The Chiefs’ profile, balanced and patient, fits a game where the opponent cannot run the ball. That is exactly the scenario they found in Miami, and it ended in a 14-point win.
The public has followed the Chiefs all week. At the latest update, Kansas City still held 73% of the money and 57% of the tickets on the spread.
Probable lineup Las Vegas Raiders: Not announced at time of publication (QB Kirk Cousins, RB Ashton Jeanty; WR Jack Bech on IR)
Probable lineup Kansas City Chiefs: Not announced at time of publication (QB Patrick Mahomes, LT Kahlil Benson)
Free NFL Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Our prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (handicap) @ 1.89
The line drop from -5.5 to -4.5 gives a better entry price than the opener, while the matchup clearly favours Kansas City. The Raiders cannot run the ball, were already bottled up by this defence last season and have just lost a receiver to injured reserve.
Two independent previews reach the same conclusion on the spread, with one projecting a 26-17 Chiefs win. Mahomes is playing at a high level behind a line that has held up, and Kansas City have won by at least 14 points in two of their three games.
The Raiders’ recent ATS record in this series deserves respect, but this version of Las Vegas is more one-dimensional than the scoreline of its start suggests. Chiefs -4.5 at 1.89 is our selection.
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