- 1 Racing 92 vs Aviron Bayonnais: the two leakiest defences in the Top 14 go head to head
- 2 Racing 92: the worst points difference in the league, but a statement win
- 3 Aviron Bayonnais: 101 points scored, 120 conceded, rugby played the right way
- 4 Rugby Prediction Racing 92 vs Aviron Bayonnais
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Racing 92 vs Aviron Bayonnais: the two leakiest defences in the Top 14 go head to head 
122 points shipped by Racing 92, 120 by Aviron Bayonnais: the two softest defences in the Top 14 meet on the same afternoon. Between them, they have coughed up 242 points in six matches.
The clash is set for Saturday 26 September at 16h35 at Stade Dominique-Duvauchelle in Creteil, where Racing are playing this season. It’s 12th against sixth in the table.
The trajectories are still very different, though. Bayonne have 9 points from 2 wins and 1 bonus point, while Racing sit on 4 points with just one win and no bonus.
The gap is even clearer when you look at the scoring output: 101 points for the Basques, only 56 for the Paris side. Bayonne have almost doubled them.
Round 3 sent mixed signals. Racing went to La Rochelle and won 20-10 in a tight, ugly scrap, while Bayonne blew away Clermont 46-24 and picked up the bonus point.
So the question is simple: which version wins out, the suffocating arm wrestle Racing just pulled off, or the full-throttle attack Bayonne have been rolling out for three straight weeks.
Racing sit level on 4 points with Stade Francais, who are 11th. Five points separate them from Saturday’s opponents.
There are also six places between the two clubs in the overall standings. Bayonne are defending a play-off spot, while Racing are still hunting win number two.
Racing 92: the worst points difference in the league, but a statement win 
At -66, Racing 92 have the worst points difference in the Top 14. No other club in the elite can come close to that sort of hole after three rounds.
The numbers tell the story. 56 points scored, 122 conceded. Racing have the 12th best attack and the worst defence in the league.
That leaves them 12th with 4 points and no bonus. Two defeats started the season before the response in round three.
And that response matters. Racing went to Stade Rochelais and came away with a 20-10 win, conceding just ten points on the road.
It was a sharp break from the first two outings, when they leaked more than 100 points combined. The defence showed it can stand up when the game plan is followed.
The key now is repetition. Racing are at Creteil, in a smaller ground, and need to prove the La Rochelle performance was not a one-off.
The Paris club still have no bonus point after three rounds. Along with Stade Francais, Castres, Stade Rochelais and Vannes, they are one of five teams in that boat.
Those 122 points conceded work out at more than 40 a game. That is the worst defensive return in the league, two points worse than Bayonne.
Over three rounds, Racing have followed two defeats with one win. Their only victory of the campaign came away from home.
Try it for $0.99.
Aviron Bayonnais: 101 points scored, 120 conceded, rugby played the right way 
Bayonne have scored 101 points in three rounds, which puts Aviron fifth in the Top 14 attack charts. Only LOU, Pau, UBB and Stade Toulousain have done better.
The flip side is sitting in the other column: 120 points conceded, the 13th-worst total in the league. The difference is still negative at -19 despite two wins.
That profile has delivered 9 points and sixth place, with a bonus point on the board. Bayonne are the best team in the league with a negative points difference.
Round 3 summed them up nicely: 46-24 against Clermont, bonus point banked, 46 points scored against a top-10 side. Aviron are not built to shut games down.
Patrice Lagisquet has also spoken to Rugbyrama about what he calls the counter-attack DNA, using the Spring brothers as the example. The movement game is theirs, embraced and worked on.
The deciding factor sits in that identity. Against the league’s worst defence, Bayonne will get chances, but their own back line will hand out the same sort of gifts in return.
Aviron are sixth, the last play-off place at this stage of the season. They are just one point ahead of Castres and Stade Rochelais.
Aviron have picked up 9 points from the 15 theoretically available across three rounds. That is the best return in the league for a team with a negative points difference.
Probable Racing 92 team: Not available at the time of publication.
Probable Aviron Bayonnais team: Not available at the time of publication.
Rugby Prediction Racing 92 vs Aviron Bayonnais
Our prediction: Over 57.5 points in the match
The teams with the 13th and 14th-ranked defences in the Top 14 are meeting, with 242 points conceded between them in six matches. That works out at more than 40 points given up per side, per game.
Bayonne matches have averaged close to 74 points this season, while Racing games have averaged more than 59. Even if you go with the lower end of the scale, the 57.5 line looks well within reach, and Aviron just scored 46 on their own against Clermont.
The only real counter-case is a repeat of Racing’s 20-10 win at La Rochelle, which would require the Paris side to back up a defensive display they have only managed once in three rounds. We are taking over 57.5 points.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
First, a word on our free predictions
- What we publish on mathodds is analysis, nothing more. It is an opinion, a read on the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport is what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a goal from nowhere… and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when something looks obvious, it never really is. And yes, that means you can lose. In fact, you will at some point.
- The best approach is to stay sensible. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Do not touch money you need to live on. And above all: do not chase losses, because that rarely ends well.
- A bet should stay a game, not a job or a source of income. If you feel it is taking up too much space in your life, irritating you or putting you under pressure, take a break. And if needed, speak to a specialist support organisation. That is what it is there for.
- In the end, the responsibility is yours. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and never goes away, even with the best analysis in the world.
- Important reminder: betting is not allowed for minors and must follow the law in your country. Gambling can spiral quickly (money losses, family tension, addiction). Need Help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In the UK? Visit https://www.gambleaware.org/https://www.gambleaware.org/.
No commitment from us
Our predictions are not a contract. They have no legal force. In plain English: you cannot use them to demand anything if a bet loses.
Information can change
A prediction is always based on what we know when it is written. But in the meantime, a team sheet changes (like Racing 92’s, for example), a player gets injured, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly go stale. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your role
Before betting, simply check that betting is legal where you are. If it is not, that is your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling first
We cannot say it often enough: gamble in moderation. If you are struggling to stay in control, do not wait to get help. We cannot be responsible for compulsive or excessive use of the information published on the site.
Legal age
mathodds content is for adults only. By using this site, you confirm that you are old enough to bet under the law.
About the images…
The Racing 92 and Aviron Bayonnais images and logos on mathodds, including those linked to the Top 14, are only there to illustrate our articles. They do not mean we have an official link with any federation or sports organisation, and we make no claim to any rights over them.
Those rights belong to the original creators. If, despite our best efforts, an image causes a problem, contact us: it will be removed without delay.
Our only aim with these images is to make the reading experience better. Nothing more. No commercial gain, no taking credit for someone else’s work.
Leave a Reply