- 1 Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley: Kone’s four goals in two games against a side with one league win
- 2 Queens Park Rangers: 2.60 goals a game at Loftus Road, 0.60 on the road
- 3 Burnley: one league win, a new manager and the worst expected numbers on the road
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley: Kone’s four goals in two games against a side with one league win 
Richard Kone scored four times across QPR’s last two Championship matches: a hat-trick in the 5-0 home win over Swansea City, then a goal in Saturday’s 4-1 defeat at Southampton. Those two results sum up where Julien Stephan’s side are right now, because they’ve scored 10 goals in their last four league games and conceded eight.
Burnley arrive at Loftus Road on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time, sitting 22nd and inside the bottom three. They’ve won one league match all season, and it came away from home, 4-0 at Watford.
The visitors have also changed manager within the last week. Nicky Hayen’s final game was a 4-1 defeat at Lincoln City, and Fabio Celestini’s first was Saturday’s 0-0 draw at home to Portsmouth, which he called a first step but not enough.
QPR are ninth and two points off the play-off places. Burnley, for their part, can climb out of the bottom three with a win on Tuesday if Watford lose at home to Lincoln on the same night, so both sides have something concrete riding on the result.
The long-run head-to-head leans towards Burnley, who have won seven of the last 14 meetings to QPR’s two. Their last visit to Loftus Road, in April 2025, ended 5-0. That result belongs to another season, and I’d give this season’s numbers far more weight.
Bookmakers make QPR favourites at around 1.94, with the draw at 3.65 and Burnley at 3.60.
Queens Park Rangers: 2.60 goals a game at Loftus Road, 0.60 on the road 
The split between QPR’s home and away numbers explains most of their season. Over their last ten matches in all competitions they’ve averaged 2.60 goals per game at home and 0.60 away, and they’ve won 60% of those home games while failing to win any of the away ones.
The Swansea game showed what happens when Stephan’s side get on top at Loftus Road. Kone scored three of the five, and that followed a 4-1 home win over Derby County. Before that, the home game against Preston finished 2-2.
The away results are what keep them outside the top six. A 3-0 defeat at Birmingham City, a 1-1 draw at West Ham and Saturday’s 4-1 loss at St Mary’s all came on the road, and the Southampton game was the heaviest of those defeats.
Defensively the home record holds up better than the away one. QPR have conceded 1.00 a game at home across that ten-match sample, compared with 1.80 away, and their expected goals against at home is 1.44 per match, so the home results aren’t simply a run of good fortune.
The probable eleven keeps a two-striker shape, with Smyth alongside Kone and Poku, Varane, Kamara and Vale across midfield. Burnley have kept two clean sheets in their last six league games, at Watford and against Portsmouth on Saturday, so Kone’s movement in behind should get some joy.
QPR have failed to score in only 20% of their recent home games, against 40% away. Both teams have scored in 60% of their last ten matches, which fits a side that creates plenty at home but rarely shuts games down: their two clean sheets in that run make up 20% of the sample.
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Burnley: one league win, a new manager and the worst expected numbers on the road 
Burnley’s only league win of the season came at Vicarage Road, 4-0 against Watford. Their other recent results read 1-1 against Derby, 2-2 against Charlton Athletic, 1-2 against Wolves, 1-4 at Lincoln and 0-0 against Portsmouth.
That run cost Hayen his job after the defeat at Lincoln, and Celestini took charge for Saturday’s game. A goalless draw at home stopped the bleeding without changing much, and the new manager praised his side’s spirit while admitting it wasn’t enough.
Away from home Burnley have actually been more productive in front of goal. Across their last ten matches they’ve averaged 1.75 goals scored on the road against 1.00 at home, and both teams have scored in 75% of those away games.
They’ve also conceded 2.00 a game away in that sample. Their expected goals against on the road sits at 1.79 per match, the worst figure of either side in this fixture, a figure Celestini has had a single home game to address.
Goals haven’t been the issue in the same way. Burnley failed to score in just one of their last ten matches and found the net in every away game in that sample. Those away fixtures averaged 3.75 goals between the two sides.
Jamie Vardy leads the line in the probable side and has one goal in six appearances this season. Edwards, Laurent and Ramazani are expected behind him, with Hatate and Hountondji in midfield and Coudert in goal.
Probable lineup Queens Park Rangers: Charles; Adamson, Edwards, Dunne, Kemper; Poku, Varane, Kamara, Vale; Smyth, Kone
Probable lineup Burnley: Coudert; Walker, Ekdal, Julio, Pires; Hatate, Hountondji; Edwards, Laurent, Ramazani; Vardy
Free Football Prediction: Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley
Our prediction: Queens Park Rangers to win (1.94)
QPR’s home numbers decide this for me. Three wins from their last five at Loftus Road, 2.60 goals a game in that run and a striker with four goals in two matches give them a clear edge over a side that has won once in the league all season.
The case against is Burnley’s away scoring and the 4-1 at Southampton, which showed QPR can be opened up. Burnley will probably score, given that both teams have found the net in 75% of their recent away games, but conceding 2.00 a game on the road means they’d likely need two or three goals of their own to take anything back to Lancashire.
Celestini has had four days since his first game, and that game produced a 0-0 at home against Portsmouth rather than a performance that pointed to a quick turnaround. QPR to win at 1.94 is the pick.
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