Six points, not sixty
Paris Saint-Germain won Ligue 1 again last season. They also had to work for it. Six points separated them from Lens by the end, and Pierre Sage’s side pushed them for most of the campaign. The Opta supercomputer noticed.
Paris come out on top in 68.1% of its 10,000 pre-season simulations. Twelve months ago that figure sat at 78.7%. Same champions, less certainty around them.
Lens then beat them 1-0 in the Trophee des Champions at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis last weekend, which will not have softened the model’s view of the gap.
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The numbers still point one way
Luis Enrique’s team averaged 68.9% possession last season, the highest figure in Europe’s top five leagues. They scored 74 goals, eight more than anyone else in France. They took 602 shots, 43 more than the next team, and put 227 on target against Marseille’s 194. In the opposition box they logged 1,215 touches; Lens, second, managed 1,045.
The defence held up too. Twenty-nine goals conceded from a league-low 31.9 expected goals against, and the only side in Ligue 1 to face fewer than 300 shots across the season.
Bradley Barcola’s future is unresolved. It barely dents the picture. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele stay, Maghnes Akliouche has already arrived, and Ferran Torres could follow. PSG were relegated in none of the 10,000 runs. Their lowest projected finish is 13th, at 0.1%.
Who chases them
Lens lost Sage to Crystal Palace and midfielder Mamadou Sangare, the league’s leading tackler with 52 won, to Brentford. Thorgan Hazard headlines the replacements under new coach Dino Toppmoller. The model still makes them the likeliest runners-up at 19.4%, with a 9.7% title chance and 44.8% odds on Champions League football.
Lille sit at 11.4% for another third place and 4.5% for the title, with Davide Ancelotti now in charge and Manchester City circling Ayyoub Bouaddi. Lyon (3.8%), Monaco (3.4%), Marseille (2.9%) and Rennes (2.8%) follow. Strasbourg, at 1.6%, are the last club above one percent.
Trouble at the other end
Angers finish last in 20.7% of runs and go down automatically in 35.9%, a harsh verdict on a side that placed 13th. Le Mans, promoted alongside Troyes, are relegated in 29.2%. Le Havre sit at 22.0%, Nice at 17.7% a year after scraping through the play-off against Saint-Etienne.
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