- 1 Portugal vs Wales: two titles in four editions against a newcomer, and the numbers tell the story
- 2 Portugal: an intact squad, four new faces and a 41-year-old captain
- 3 Wales: a battered back line and three months without a game
- 4 Football Prediction Portugal vs Wales
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Portugal vs Wales: two titles in four editions against a newcomer, and the numbers tell the story 
Portugal have won two of the four Nations League editions played so far. No other side can match that record, and it frames the start for the reigning champions.
Their first crown came in 2019, with a 1-0 final win over the Netherlands at the Estadio do Dragao, thanks to a Goncalo Guedes goal on 60 minutes. The second arrived in 2025, sealed on penalties against Spain.
Across the pitch are Wales, stepping into League A for the first time. Craig Bellamy took his side up after an unbeaten League B campaign, finishing one point clear of Turkiye.
The game kicks off on Thursday 24 September at 20:45 Paris time at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon. The Sporting ground holds around 52,000 fans, including about 2,500 Wales supporters.
League A Group 4 also features Denmark and Norway. In other words, four matches in 11 days for Wales, who go straight from Lisbon to Copenhagen on 27 September.
The two nations have not met since the summer of 2016. Their Euro semi-final in Lyon ended in a 2-0 Portugal win, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani on target, before Portugal went on to lift the trophy against France.
The overall record points firmly one way. Portugal have won three of the four meetings, with Wales’ only victory a 2-1 friendly in Cardiff in 1951.
Portugal’s backdrop has changed a lot this summer, though. Roberto Martinez left after the round-of-16 World Cup exit, and Jorge Jesus is taking charge of his first official match as head coach.
So this is Portugal’s stacked squad, under new management, against a well-drilled Wales side that is far less gifted individually. The real question is not who wins, but by how much.
Portugal: an intact squad, four new faces and a 41-year-old captain 
Jorge Jesus has named 25 players for this Portugal camp. Only four of them were not part of the 2026 World Cup finals squad, which says plenty about the continuity despite the change in the dugout.
The new boys are Samuel Soares, the Benfica goalkeeper, Nuno Tavares, the Lazio full-back, Joao Palhinha, the Benfica midfielder, and Fabio Silva, the Borussia Dortmund striker. Jose Sa, Nelson Semedo, Matheus Nunes, Samu Costa and Goncalo Guedes are out compared with the World Cup group.
Cristiano Ronaldo remains captain at 41. He has 233 caps and 146 goals since his international debut on 20 August 2003, and this summer he became the first male player to score at six different World Cups.
Portugal’s summer run, though, deserves a closer look. The group stage produced a 1-1 draw with DR Congo and a 0-0 draw with Colombia, before a ruthless 5-0 win over Uzbekistan.
The knockout rounds only sharpened the sense of inconsistency. A 2-1 win over Croatia in the last 16 was followed by a 1-0 defeat to Spain, who went on to become world champions.
That is this team in a nutshell: capable of blowing sides away when the space is there, and capable of bogging down when it is not. Even so, the midfield trio of Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and Joao Neves gives Portugal a level of control few teams can live with.
The biggest edge is the setting. First match under a new coach, at home, against an opponent who have not played since June: Portugal have every reason to come out swinging.
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Wales: a battered back line and three months without a game 
Bellamy has called up 28 players for this away double-header. Lisbon comes first, then three days later another brutal trip to Copenhagen.
The defence is where the bad news stacks up. Joe Rodon is out with a hamstring injury, Dylan Lawlor misses out with a knee issue, and Ronan Kpakio is also absent.
Ben Davies stays in the squad, which was not a given. The captain had not played since a serious ankle injury suffered with Tottenham in January, and has not worn the Wales shirt since October 2025 and his 100th cap.
Cian Ashford has earned his first call-up. The Cardiff City forward joins the group as Wales move back up to the top tier of European football.
Match sharpness is another issue. Wales have not played since June, when they lost 2-1 in a friendly in Romania, having drawn 1-1 with Ghana before that.
The coaching staff has also grown over the summer, with Ashley Williams arriving alongside Alan Sheehan in the senior set-up. The former captain, capped 86 times, is stepping into his first role in the professional game.
Wales do have one card to play: they can score in bursts. The 7-1 demolition of North Macedonia in Cardiff last November and the 4-1 win over Iceland, with a Liam Cullen brace plus goals from Brennan Johnson and Harry Wilson, showed this side can catch fire.
Probable Portugal lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Probable Wales lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Football Prediction Portugal vs Wales
Our prediction: Portugal win with a -1.5 goal handicap
The key point is Wales’ defence. Losing Rodon, Lawlor and Kpakio in the same camp forces Bellamy to rebuild his entire central spine against one of the deepest attacks in Europe.
The schedule only tilts it further. Wales have not played since June, while Portugal can call on a squad in which 21 of the 25 players came through a World Cup finals campaign.
Portugal’s clearest recent template is the 5-0 win over Uzbekistan this summer, delivered in exactly the kind of setup they face here: a packed defence, space to unlock and an opening match to take control of. The head-to-head record points the same way, with three Portugal wins in four.
The call is straightforward. Portugal to win in Lisbon by at least two goals.
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