- 1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons: two defenses set the tone from Week 1
- 2 Pittsburgh Steelers: Rodgers backed by Atlanta absences
- 3 Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson has to carry a limited passing plan
- 4 NFL prediction Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
- 5 First, a quick note on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons: two defenses set the tone from Week 1 
Acrisure Stadium hosts the game on Sunday, 13 September at 1:00pm local time in Pennsylvania. The forecast calls for warm conditions, with no real wind and little chance of rain.
Aaron Rodgers begins what he has called his final NFL season. And he gets a reunion with Mike McCarthy, the coach who oversaw most of his Green Bay years.
Atlanta comes in with a quarterback who was never the original plan for the summer. Kevin Stefanski has named Tua Tagovailoa the starter, with Michael Penix Jr. still working back from a torn ACL.
The Steelers went 5-3 at home with Rodgers at the controls last season.
Atlanta, though, opens this one without a full-strength defensive line. Two of its best pass rushers are out from the start in Pittsburgh.
So it comes down to a simple question: who makes the fewest costly mistakes. Sacks, turnovers and red-zone efficiency should matter more than raw yardage.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rodgers backed by Atlanta absences 
The 5-3 home record at Acrisure last season gives Pittsburgh a solid edge on its own turf. Rodgers showed he can manage a game there without forcing the issue.
He is not as mobile as he once was, and that is exactly why Atlanta’s absences matter. A quarterback who no longer escapes pressure needs that pressure not to arrive in the first place.
But Atlanta turns up without Jalon Walker, out for the season after an ACL tear, and without James Pearce Jr., suspended for the first eight games. The Falcons had to bring back Za’Darius Smith out of retirement just to steady the edge group.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, still has T.J. Watt, the anchor of the front seven. When the home pass rush gets to tee off on obvious passing downs, the Steelers’ defense looks a different beast.
The main concern for the home side is up front on offense. Troy Fautanu has a major role at left tackle, and the right side has been shaky enough to make the edge matchups worth watching.
McCarthy has two clear ways to help Rodgers: lean on the run on first down and keep the passes short. The idea is to stop Rodgers from holding the ball while routes develop.
The quarterback-and-coach reunion also cuts down on the early-season learning curve. The language is shared, which should limit the rough edges on opening day.
Pittsburgh’s plan is simple enough: run the ball on first down, stay out of long-yardage situations and keep Rodgers in a pocket he can trust. He does not need a perfect pocket anymore. He needs a predictable one.
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Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson has to carry a limited passing plan 
Tua Tagovailoa finished last season 26th in the league in EPA per play. That puts him among the least productive starters in football.
That profile sets the terms. Get the ball out on rhythm, use pre-snap movement to read the coverage, and avoid long improvisation. Against Pittsburgh’s front, that is not a choice. It is a requirement.
Bijan Robinson is Atlanta’s best offensive answer. His use all over the field, on short routes as well as on the ground, keeps the Steelers from living in full-time pass-rush mode.
Cooper Rush is the backup, which tells you Atlanta does not expect to change quarterbacks unless something goes wrong. This game plan will be built entirely around Tua’s skill set.
Atlanta’s defensive line still has size in the middle and enough bodies to handle the run. The issue is out wide, where both starters are missing.
If the interior rush cannot speed up Rodgers’ mental clock, Atlanta will be left defending long drives and losing the possession battle.
Even so, the line moving to -3.5 gives the Falcons some cover. A three-point loss, the league’s most common margin, still gets the bet home on Atlanta.
The key battle is Robinson against Pittsburgh’s second level. If he can force the linebackers to widen, passing lanes will open between the numbers.
Quarterback announced Pittsburgh Steelers : Aaron Rodgers
Quarterback announced Atlanta Falcons : Tua Tagovailoa
NFL prediction Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
Our pick: Under 42.5 points in Pittsburgh
Both quarterbacks bring limited upside and limited risk. Tua finished 26th in EPA per play and Rodgers no longer has the legs to turn broken plays into a steady stream of deep shots.
Neither offense has much reason to open things up. Atlanta needs Robinson and quick throws to protect its starter, while Pittsburgh has no reason to expose Rodgers behind a reshuffled line.
Warm, calm weather will not be enough to force a shootout. This looks like a tight, controlled game, with Pittsburgh coming out on top.
in your pocket.
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