Pittsburgh Pirates – St. Louis Cardinals : Do the pitchers have the edge in this Central matchup? 
The Pennsylvania club is back in front of its own fans after a bitter Sunday in Milwaukee. Even so, the bigger picture still looks pretty good for the home side: before that 0-5 stumble, they had rattled off two strong wins against the Brewers. The St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile, arrive carrying a heavy load of misery. Theyve just been swept by Seattle and are stuck in a nasty four-game losing streak. If youre looking for a low-scoring fight, start with the Cardinals current form, then add in the head-to-head record, which so often settles around seven or eight runs.
Pittsburgh steady, if not exactly explosive 
At 16 wins and 12 losses, including 8-5 at home, the Bucs are handling their business just fine. Sure, Sundays blanking at 0-5 leaves a mark, but they had already done the hard part earlier in the series, not least in that thriller they took in 10 innings, 6-3.
Right now, the home mood is a lot calmer than the one around the St. Louis Cardinals. But Pittsburghs bats dont pile on the pressure for long stretches. That matters a lot when youre trying to forecast a tight scoreline: unlike the Cardinals, the home side would rather lean on the rotation, keep the lid on things and strike at the right moment than get dragged into a home-run shootout.
The St. Louis Cardinals are edging toward meltdown 
On the other side, fatigue and frustration are plain to see for the Cardinals after their nightmare trip to the West Coast. They lost their last series full stop (2-3, 9-11, then another 2-3). Last Sunday, Michael McGreevys tidy outing still wasnt enough to save them, thanks to a Cardinals bullpen that leaked again at the worst possible time.
With four straight defeats in the bag, St. Louis doesnt look remotely ready to flip the script in a hurry. More often than not, the Cardinals are involved in razor-close games and end up relying far too much on the odd big hit to get them out of trouble.
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MLB prediction Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Under 8.5 runs in the game
This matchup has too much history of low-scoring games to be swayed by a couple of recent outliers. In the last 10 meetings, the Under has landed seven times. At the moment, neither the Pirates nor the Cardinals look like a run-scoring machine.
Pittsburgh just came off a scoreless outing, while the Cardinals, in the middle of a skid, tend to get dragged into tight, ugly contests. Even if you factor in Mays occasionally risky ERA, this doesnt need a flawless night from the pitchers. A familiar 4-3, 5-2 or even 5-3 sort of result is enough to clear the line. Follow the history and back under 8.5 tonight, with St. Louis in the field.
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