Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators – Free NHL Prediction – Nov 14

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators: 14 points from 18 games against Stutzle’s 23

Pittsburgh have 14 points from 18 games. The Penguins are 6-10-2, they’ve lost four of their last five, and the only win in that run came 5-2 in Los Angeles, the night before a 5-2 defeat in Anaheim.

The record matters for Saturday 14 November at PPG Paints Arena, puck drop 7:00pm ET, because Pittsburgh’s season has split cleanly by venue. The Penguins are 4-3-1 at home and 2-7-1 on the road, so this is one of the nights where their numbers look closest to respectable.

Ottawa come in at 11-6-1, and they’ve done it without the player who used to define them. Brady Tkachuk went to Florida on 21 June in exchange for the ninth and 25th picks in the 2026 draft, a conditional 2029 first-round pick and a 2027 second-rounder. The Senators’ attack now runs through Tim Stutzle.

The Senators’ recent results have swung between extremes. They lost 6-5 in Los Angeles, won 5-1 in San Jose, lost 6-3 in Anaheim, then won 2-1 in Buffalo and 4-2 at home to Utah. Two straight wins with two goals or fewer conceded is the more recent trend, and it’s the one I’d weigh more heavily.

This is the first of three meetings this season, with the others on 31 December in Ottawa and 10 March back in Pittsburgh. There’s no head-to-head from this campaign to lean on yet, so the season numbers have to carry the argument.

Pittsburgh Penguins: 3.56 goals against per game and a goaltending pair under .880

Pittsburgh can score. They average 3.17 goals per game, slightly more than Ottawa’s 3.11, and Erik Karlsson leads them with 15 assists and 18 points from the blue line. Tommy Novak has a team-high 7 goals.

The trouble starts at the other end. The Penguins allow 3.56 goals per game on only 27.3 shots against, which points straight at the crease. Arturs Silovs is 5-6-1 with a 3.35 goals-against average and an .873 save percentage, and Sergei Murashov is 1-4-1 with a 3.52 and an .880.

Neither goaltender has given Pittsburgh a run of saves to build on. The home defeats to Vegas, 3-2, and Boston, 6-2, came in the same week, with eight goals conceded across the two games.

The injury list is long. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury and isn’t expected back before early December, Ryan Graves is out with a knee injury until late November, and Elmer Soderblom and Trevor van Riemsdyk are also on IR. Ville Koivunen is day to day.

Rust’s absence comes on top of a power play that converts 20.4%, the one area where Pittsburgh hold a clear edge over Ottawa’s 13.2%.

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Ottawa Senators: Stutzle’s 23 points and the Ullmark question

Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa in goals with 9, assists with 14 and points with 23. Without Tkachuk, he’s been the centre of almost everything the Senators create, and Ottawa’s 3.11 goals per game are almost identical to Pittsburgh’s.

The bigger difference is in net. Linus Ullmark is 7-1-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage in eight games. Samuel Ersson has nine appearances and is 3-3-1 with a 3.14 goals-against average and an .890.

Ullmark isn’t listed on Ottawa’s current injury report, but he has only eight appearances in Ottawa’s 18 games, and the Senators play Colorado at home on Thursday before this trip. Which goaltender starts on Saturday is the biggest single variable in the game.

Ottawa have their own absences. Andre Burakovsky and Warren Foegele are on injured reserve until late November, and William Eklund is out with an ankle injury until January. That’s three forwards missing from the depth chart.

The power play is a weakness at 13.2%, well below Pittsburgh’s 20.4%, and the penalty kill sits at 74.6%. Ottawa have won without special teams helping them, and that won’t change in one night.

Probable lineup Pittsburgh Penguins: Not announced at time of publication (Arturs Silovs has made 12 of 18 starts)
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication (Linus Ullmark or Samuel Ersson)

Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators

Our prediction: Ottawa Senators to win

Ottawa are 11-6-1 and Pittsburgh are 6-10-2, and the gap between them comes down to one place: the Penguins concede 3.56 goals a game because neither Silovs nor Murashov is saving .880. That’s a figure Ottawa can exploit even with a weak power play.

Pittsburgh’s home record of 4-3-1 is the honest case against the pick, and Karlsson gives them a creative source the Senators will have to respect. But the Penguins lost both home games in the week before their western trip, and they’ll be without Rust.

The pick gets stronger if Ullmark starts. Even with Ersson in net, Ottawa have the better goals-against average, 3.00 to 3.56, and they’ve won two straight while giving up three goals combined.

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