- 1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins: the Atlantic leaders against a Penguins team leaking 3.38 a night
- 2 Pittsburgh Penguins: Karlsson and Malkin carrying a lineup with five players hurt
- 3 Boston Bruins: 19 points from Pastrnak and a .912 from Swayman
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins: the Atlantic leaders against a Penguins team leaking 3.38 a night 
Pittsburgh scored four goals in Montreal on Saturday night and still lost 5-4. Two nights earlier, Utah beat the Penguins 4-3 in overtime, and the team that opened the season with a 7-0 win in Philadelphia now sits at 5-7-2.
Boston comes to Pittsburgh on Thursday 5 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET, with a 10-4-1 record and 21 points. The Bruins went into Saturday’s 5-4 overtime win over Chicago in first place in the Atlantic Division.
The gap between the two teams shows up most clearly in the goals column. Boston scores 3.67 a game and allows 2.40. Pittsburgh scores 3.31 and allows 3.38, so the Penguins’ offense is fine while the goals against keep piling up.
The schedule helps Boston too. The Bruins host Vegas on Monday and then have Tuesday and Wednesday off. Pittsburgh also plays Vegas, at home on Tuesday, so neither team is on a back-to-back, but Boston gets the extra day.
Last season’s three meetings were tight. Boston won 1-0 on 11 January and 2-1 on 3 March, both at home, and Pittsburgh took the third 5-4 in overtime on 8 March.
This is the first meeting of the 2026-27 season, and the Penguins will go into it without Rust, who is on injured reserve until early December.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Karlsson and Malkin carrying a lineup with five players hurt 
Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh in scoring with 13 points, two goals and 11 assists. Evgeni Malkin has six goals and 11 points, and Sidney Crosby has three goals and seven points through 14 games.
The injury list is long. Rust (lower body) isn’t expected back until around 5 December, Graves is on injured reserve until late November, and Soderblom and Brazeau were both still out at the end of October. Van Riemsdyk’s estimated return date is 5 November itself, so he’s a question mark for this game.
Special teams have held up under coach Dan Muse. The power play runs at 20.0%, seven goals from 35 chances, and the penalty kill sits at 84.38%, better than Boston’s.
The goaltending hasn’t. Arturs Silovs is 5-3-1 with a 2.98 goals-against average and an .889 save percentage, and Murashov is 0-3-1 at 3.50 and .883. Both numbers are below what Pittsburgh needs to stay in tight games.
The two clean wins of the last fortnight came at home, 4-0 over Florida on 22 October and 3-2 in overtime against Nashville two days later. Since then it’s been a 4-3 overtime loss to Utah and the 5-4 defeat in Montreal.
Shot volume is level, 28.2 for and 28.1 against per game. Pittsburgh isn’t being outplayed at even strength so much as beaten by the save percentage in its own net.
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Boston Bruins: 19 points from Pastrnak and a .912 from Swayman 
David Pastrnak has eight goals and 11 assists, 19 points in 15 games. Elias Lindholm adds 12, Peterka and Hagens have 11 each, and Geekie and Minten are on 10, so Boston’s scoring doesn’t rely on one line.
Jeremy Swayman is 7-3-1 with a 2.35 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage. DiPietro has been even better in his four starts, 3-1-0 with a .929, which gives Marco Sturm a reliable second option.
Boston scored 55 goals in its first 15 games and conceded 36. Big wins over Nashville (6-0 on 22 October) and San Jose (6-4 on 24 October) inflate that, but the Bruins also beat the Rangers 3-0 and Philadelphia 5-1 earlier in the month.
The penalty kill is the soft spot at 76.92%. Pittsburgh’s power play converts at 20.0%, so the Penguins’ best route back into this game is on the man advantage.
Boston did drop two in a row last week, 2-1 at Carolina on 27 October and 4-1 at St. Louis two days later. The 5-4 overtime win over Chicago on Saturday stopped that.
No Bruins injuries were listed at the end of October. That’s a full lineup against a Pittsburgh team with five players on its injury list.
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Penguins: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Boston Bruins: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins
Our prediction: Boston Bruins to win
I’m taking Boston on the moneyline. The Bruins allow nearly a goal a game fewer than Pittsburgh, 2.40 against 3.38, and they have the better goaltender on current form by more than 20 points of save percentage.
Pittsburgh’s penalty kill and Boston’s own soft PK are the reasons this could be closer than the standings suggest. Last season’s three meetings were all one-goal games. But the Penguins are missing Rust, Graves and three more players, and they’ve lost two straight with Silovs in net.
Boston also gets two days off after Monday’s game against Vegas, while Pittsburgh plays the same opponent on Tuesday. No odds had been posted at the time of writing, so check the Bruins price nearer puck drop.
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