- 1 Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers: a minor premiership decided by a single point difference
- 2 Penrith put their big guns back in place before the finals
- 3 The Wests Tigers finish a season with 15 defeats
- 4 NRL Prediction Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers: a minor premiership decided by a single point difference 
Penrith and the New Zealand Warriors are both on 40 points after 23 rounds. Just one points-difference point separates the two clubs, +309 for Auckland against +308 for Penrith.
That tiny bit of bookkeeping decides the minor premiership, and it goes down on Sunday, 6 September at 16:05 local time at CommBank Stadium in Sydney.
The Panthers host 14th-placed Wests Tigers, who have 22 points and a -226 differential.
The gap between the two sides is the widest in this final round: 645 points scored for Penrith compared with 435 for the Tigers.
And yet this west Sydney derby still carries plenty of bite, with several former Penrith players now turning out for the Tigers.
Jarome Luai is the clearest example, having lost all three meetings with his old club since leaving.
One last stat matters at this stage of the season: Penrith have won 14 of their last 15 games played in September or October.
Penrith are coming off three wins in five matches, a pace good enough to keep up with Auckland.
The Wests Tigers, meanwhile, have won just one of their last five outings.
So it is the competition’s best defence up against one of its least productive attacks.
Penrith’s 337 points conceded is the best defensive total in the NRL this season.
No other club has stayed below 340 points conceded across 23 rounds.
Penrith put their big guns back in place before the finals 
Seventeen wins, six losses and only 337 points conceded: Penrith own the best defence in the competition.
That steel is the reason they have been locked in a season-long race with the Warriors right to the final round.
They head into this one with a squad that is coming back together at exactly the right time.
Mitch Kenny returns to hooker after a leg injury, which sends Freddy Lussick back to the bench.
Captain Isaah Yeo is among the reserves and is closing in on a comeback after the pec injury he picked up in round 23 against the Warriors.
Luke Garner starts in the centres to cover for the injured Izack Tago, who is sidelined with a knee problem.
Luron Patea joins the bench and will wear No. 23 in tribute to John Farragher OAM, with the club wearing a special jersey for the occasion.
Thomas Jenkins comes into this one in red-hot form, with six tries in his last three games against the Tigers.
Home or away, Penrith have eight wins and four losses, one of the strongest records in the competition.
Nathan Cleary and Dylan Edwards are the spine of a side built for this time of year.
Kenny’s return at hooker on the eve of the finals gives the pack back its usual shape.
Moses Leota and Liam Henry start up front, with Lindsay Smith at lock.
That defensive discipline is why the Panthers have kept pace with the Warriors all the way to the final weekend.
A single point separates the two clubs now, which makes every try feel huge on Sunday.
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The Wests Tigers finish a season with 15 defeats 
Eight wins, 15 losses, 661 points conceded: the Tigers’ season is summed up by those three numbers.
Their away record, three wins and eight defeats, offers little hope of causing an upset at the second-placed side.
Still, they have shown they can land a punch.
In round 25, the Tigers stunned the Roosters 25-24, one of the biggest shocks of the season.
Last week in Townsville, though, they went down to the Cowboys and could not repeat the trick.
Latu Fainu returns to the squad on the bench for his first appearance since round 20 after a hamstring injury.
Sione Fainu comes into the starting 15 in place of Tony Sukkar, who has been ruled out with delayed concussion symptoms.
Vaka Aho is set for his NRL debut off the bench, where Sunia Turuva also appears after missing the last two rounds with a knee issue.
Terrell May, meanwhile, will play his 100th game in the Australian top flight.
Apisai Koroisau and Jarome Luai, both former Penrith men, face their old club in the final round.
Jock Madden partners Luai in the halves, with Jahream Bula at fullback.
The pack leans on Terrell May and Fonua Pole to handle Penrith’s front row.
Bunty Afoa and Ethan Roberts complete a bench reshaped by the return of injured players.
The 661 points conceded by the Wests Tigers are beaten only by the Dragons this season.
That leaves them 324 points worse off than Penrith over the course of the campaign.
Likely Penrith Panthers team: Edwards ; Jenkins, Garner, McLean, To’o ; Cole, Cleary ; Leota, Kenny, Henry, Papali’i, Martin, L. Smith. Interchange: Lussick, Sorensen, Patea, Phillips.
Likely Wests Tigers team: Bula ; Tupou, Saukuru, Herbert, Skelton ; Luai, Madden ; May, Koroisau, Pole, Sa. Fainu, Si. Fainu, Seyfarth. Interchange: L. Fainu, Aho, Roberts, Afoa.
NRL Prediction Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers
Our pick: Penrith Panthers to win with a -12.5 point handicap
Penrith are fighting for a minor premiership that comes down to a single point difference, so there is every reason for them to keep the foot down and score heavily.
Against a defence that has coughed up 661 points this season, and a side that loses three out of four away from home, this is about as good as it gets.
Six wins in the last seven meetings, plus 14 wins in the last 15 games played in September or October, make the case. Penrith should win comfortably.
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