- 1 Section Paloise vs Stade Toulousain: the Hameau’s perfect record against a depleted leader
- 2 Section Paloise: 259 points scored, but six internationals in Marcoussis
- 3 Stade Toulousain: top of the table, but 107 points conceded in three games
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Section Paloise vs Stade Toulousain
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Section Paloise vs Stade Toulousain: the Hameau’s perfect record against a depleted leader 
Toulon beat Pau 41-20 at Mayol last Saturday and took the attacking bonus point. It was Pau’s second league defeat of the season, both away from home, and it cut short a run of four wins in five Top 14 games.
The response comes against the leaders. Section Paloise host Stade Toulousain at the Stade du Hameau on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 20:05 UK time, in round eight. The ground is reported sold out.
Toulouse are top on 28 points from seven games, with six wins, four bonus points and a points difference of +78. Pau are third on 22, six points behind, with five wins and a difference of +37.
No side in the league has scored more than Pau’s 259 points. They’ve also conceded 222, against 157 for Toulouse.
At home, though, the picture is cleaner. Pau have won all three league games at the Hameau, 70-28 against Bayonne, 39-17 against La Rochelle and 35-26 against Castres, and added a 41-17 win over Leicester in the Champions Cup.
The international window decides most of this fixture. Both clubs have six players in France’s squad of 42 for the November Tests, and Toulouse’s injury list was already long before Fabien Galthié picked his group.
Section Paloise: 259 points scored, but six internationals in Marcoussis 
Sébastien Piqueronies’ side opened with a 27-19 win at Montpellier, lost 51-25 at Lyon in round three and then won three in a row, including a 43-40 win at Vannes. Their seven league games have produced 481 points in total, an average of almost 69 per match.
Marta has six tries, joint top of the league’s try-scoring list. Axel Desperes has 53 points, third in the league, and Joe Simmonds has 46. Théo Attissogbe, Hugo Auradou and Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang have three tries each.
Four of those names are in the France squad. Auradou, Attissogbe, Desperes, Grandidier-Nkanang and Gailleton were all called up, along with Fabien Brau-Boirie, who has since withdrawn with a knee injury that will keep him out for a long spell. Prop Thomas Laclayat has joined them as Karl Sorin’s replacement.
Galthié is due to release 19 players on Thursday evening and hasn’t said who. The working assumption has to be that most of Pau’s internationals miss Sunday, which takes away their top points scorer and three of their leading try scorers from the side that started at Toulon.
Prop Siate Tokolahi is waiting for a surgeon’s opinion on his shoulder. Baptiste Pesenti took a knock to the neck at Toulon, but the scans were reassuring and he could train at the end of the week.
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Stade Toulousain: top of the table, but 107 points conceded in three games 
Toulouse lost 30-27 at La Rochelle on the opening night and haven’t lost since. They’ve beaten Bordeaux-Bègles 48-12, Montpellier 40-18 and Bayonne 45-34 at home, and won 29-23 at Vannes and 8-7 at Castres.
The defence has loosened over the last three weeks. Bayonne scored 34 at Ernest-Wallon, Exeter 40 in the Champions Cup, and Perpignan 33 last Saturday after Toulouse had led 38-7 with 20 minutes left. That’s 107 points conceded in three games.
Away from home they’ve won two of three, scoring 64 points and conceding 60, which is still the best away record in the league. The two away wins came by six points and by one.
Ugo Mola has had scoring from all over the side. Ntamack has 42 points, Teddy Thomas 25 points and five tries, and Dupont and Marchand four tries each.
The absences are the bigger issue. Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Cros, Mauvaka, Gourgues and Brennan are the six Toulouse players in the France squad, and reports in Toulouse expect Dupont, Ntamack and Cros to be kept by France this weekend. Between internationals and injuries, around 20 players were missing from training at the start of the week.
Meafou (knee) and Flament (shoulder) are out long term. Thomas Ramos isn’t back in full training, Julien Marchand has a thigh problem, Aldegheri was concussed against Perpignan, and Rodrigue Neti is suspended. A move for Tongan lock Jimmy Tupou as a medical joker fell through when he failed his medical. Alexandre Roumat is back in training and could return, subject to medical clearance.
Probable lineup Section Paloise: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Stade Toulousain: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Section Paloise vs Stade Toulousain
Our prediction: Section Paloise to win at 1.45
We’re backing Pau. They’ve won all four home games this season in league and Europe, scoring 185 points and conceding 88, and they beat Toulouse 30-26 at the Hameau in October 2025. Toulouse travel without Dupont, Ntamack and Cros, and with a casualty list that has already forced them to look for a medical joker.
The counter-argument is the head-to-head. Toulouse have won four of the last five meetings, including 59-22 in January, and they won 22-14 on this ground in October 2024. Pau lose internationals too, and their own depth will be tested.
The difference is the scale. Pau lose six players to the France camp; Toulouse lose six to France, have their Argentina internationals in doubt and carry more than ten injured players on top. At 1.45, with a second listing at 1.50, we’d take the home side.
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