- 1 Section Paloise vs USA Perpignan: 44.5 points a game at the Hameau against a side still chasing an away win
- 2 Section Paloise: 293 points scored, the most in the Top 14
- 3 USA Perpignan: three home wins, and 33 points scored at Toulouse in a defeat
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Section Paloise vs USA Perpignan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Section Paloise vs USA Perpignan: 44.5 points a game at the Hameau against a side still chasing an away win 
Pau average 44.5 points a game at the Stade du Hameau this season. Four league visits have produced four home wins and 178 points, and Perpignan are the next side to try it, on Saturday 7 November at 15:35 UK time in round nine of the Top 14.
Sunday’s 34-14 win over Toulouse lifted Pau to third on 26 points, two behind the leaders. Toulouse still lead on 28 points, and Pau have now won six of their eight league games.
Perpignan arrive 11th on 15 points. They’ve won all three of their league wins at Aimé-Giral, against Castres, Bordeaux-Bègles and Vannes, and they’ve lost all four of their away games.
That away record needs a closer reading than the bare 0-4 suggests. Two of the defeats were by 37 and 30 points, at Montpellier and Racing. The other two were 28-26 at Stade Français and 38-33 at Toulouse, by a combined seven points.
The market has Pau at 1.25 and Perpignan at 4.20. We think the winner is settled, so our interest lies in the total, because both clubs have played in high-scoring games far more often than not.
Section Paloise: 293 points scored, the most in the Top 14 
Nobody in the league has scored more than Pau’s 293 points. Lyon are next on 272 and Bordeaux-Bègles have 259, so the gap at the top is 21 points after eight rounds.
The home results explain most of it. Pau beat Bayonne 70-28, La Rochelle 39-17, Castres 35-26 and Toulouse 34-14, and the closest of those four games was decided by nine points. They’ve conceded 85 in those four matches, 21.25 a game.
Defence is where the numbers turn less friendly. Their 236 points conceded is more than any other side in the top six except Lyon, and the away games show why: 51-25 at Lyon and 41-20 at Toulon. Both of those heavy defeats came away from home.
Their two away wins came in much the same way as their home ones, by outscoring people. They won 27-19 at Montpellier on the opening day and 43-40 at Vannes on 3 October, a game with 83 points in it.
Team sheets aren’t out yet, and both clubs in the Pau-Toulouse game were missing many internationals. We don’t know how much of that changes this weekend, so we’ve based our view on the season’s results and left the selection question open until the squads are named.
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USA Perpignan: three home wins, and 33 points scored at Toulouse in a defeat 
Perpignan have lost their last two games by a combined six points. They went down 38-33 at Toulouse on 24 October, then lost 25-24 at home to Toulon on Saturday, a result that ended their unbeaten league run at Aimé-Giral.
Before that, home form had carried their season. They beat Castres 43-29, Bordeaux-Bègles 38-25 and Vannes 21-12, and that win over Bordeaux stands as one of only two defeats the league’s second-placed club have taken on the road.
Their 223 points scored put them seventh in the division on attack, ahead of Toulon, Stade Français and La Rochelle. Their 262 conceded is the second-worst figure in the league, two better than Bayonne.
Those two numbers together produce a lot of points. Perpignan’s four away games have featured 54, 63, 80 and 71 points, an average of 67.
Scoring 33 at Toulouse, whose defence has let in 191 this season, tells us the attack travels. We’d give them a real chance of crossing the line several times at the Hameau, even if we don’t expect them to win.
Probable lineup Section Paloise: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup USA Perpignan: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Section Paloise vs USA Perpignan
Our prediction: Over 55.5 total match points
Pau at 1.25 is too short for us, so we’re taking the total. Pau’s four home games have produced 98, 56, 61 and 48 points. Perpignan’s four away games have produced 54, 63, 80 and 71. Six of those eight games went past 55, and the two that didn’t finished on 48 and 54.
The evidence against us is the 48 points in Pau’s win over Toulouse, the most recent of those home games. We’d still side with the season’s sample: the league’s top attack against its second-most generous defence, and a visiting side that scored 33 at Toulouse on 24 October.
We couldn’t find a published price for this line at the time of writing, so check that it’s at 1.45 or better before taking it. If the total opens higher than 60, we’d pass.
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