- 1 New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders: a five-point line move that tells its own story
- 2 New England Patriots: Maye’s breakout week against a stingier secondary
- 3 Las Vegas Raiders: nine takeaways and a perfect record against the spread
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders: a five-point line move that tells its own story 
Before the season started, New England were 8.5-point favourites for this game on the lookahead line. Today they’re laying 3.5. That five-point slide says a lot about how the first month of the 2026 season has gone for both of these clubs.
The Las Vegas Raiders arrive at Gillette Stadium at 3-1, and they’ve covered the spread in all four of their games. Their only loss came last week against Kansas City, and even that one was decided by a late fumble. Nobody had them pencilled in as a contender in August. They’ve earned the respect now.
The Patriots are 2-2 and coming off their best afternoon of the season, a 29-26 win over Buffalo in which Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns. The question is whether that was a turning point or a one-off. Here’s the thing about New England so far: they’ve turned the ball over twice in every single game.
That’s the collision at the heart of Sunday’s game. Las Vegas lead the league with nine takeaways. New England give the ball away like clockwork.
Kick-off is Sunday 11 October at 1:00 p.m. ET, which means 19:00 in Paris, with CBS carrying the game. The total sits around 45.5, and the market prices the Patriots at roughly 1.52 on the moneyline against 2.60 for the Raiders.
New England Patriots: Maye’s breakout week against a stingier secondary 
Drake Maye finally looked like a franchise quarterback last Sunday. Three touchdown passes, 269 yards through the air and another 54 on the ground against the Bills. For a player who’d spent September under heavy criticism, it was the kind of answer the building needed.
Still, the full picture is less flattering. Maye has thrown seven interceptions in four games. That’s a lot. Even in the Buffalo win he gave one away, and the Raiders’ defence is built to punish exactly that kind of mistake.
There’s also the matter of who he was throwing against. Buffalo’s pass defence ranks 27th in the league, so last week’s numbers came against one of the friendliest secondaries he’ll see all year. Las Vegas haven’t allowed more than 233 passing yards in any game and sit eighth in passing yards allowed per game. Different test entirely.
The encouraging part for New England is on the other side of the ball. Despite the slow start, their defence ranks eighth in opponent success rate, which is better than the Raiders manage. Christian Barmore was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder issue, and his availability on the interior will matter against a Las Vegas offence that can’t run the ball well.
Home field helps too. The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games, and the Under has landed in three of their four outings this season. Does that sound like a side that blows teams away? Not really. It sounds like a side that grinds out close ones.
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Las Vegas Raiders: nine takeaways and a perfect record against the spread 
Four games, four covers. That’s the Raiders’ record against the number this season, including 2-0 on the road. They’ve also covered in each of the last three meetings with New England.
The defence is the reason. Nine takeaways lead the NFL, and this is a unit that doesn’t just wait for mistakes, it forces them. Against a quarterback who’s already thrown seven interceptions, that’s a matchup Las Vegas will relish.
The offence is a different story. The Raiders rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate, which leaves Kirk Cousins carrying most of the load through the air. It’s worked so far. Whether it holds up for seventeen weeks is another question entirely.
The injury report needs watching. Brock Bowers was limited on Wednesday with a knee problem, Jalen Nailor didn’t practise after a concussion and Ashton Jeanty is dealing with an ankle issue. If Bowers is restricted, Cousins loses his most reliable target over the middle.
The body clock is a factor as well. A West Coast side kicking off at 10 a.m. their time, on the East Coast, a week after an emotional loss to the Chiefs. It isn’t ideal. But this group has handled awkward spots all season, and they came within one fumble of beating Kansas City last week.
Probable lineup New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye; TE Hunter Henry; DT Christian Barmore (shoulder, limited); CB Christian Gonzalez. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Las Vegas Raiders: QB Kirk Cousins; RB Ashton Jeanty (ankle); TE Brock Bowers (knee, limited); TE Ian Thomas. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders
Our prediction: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (1.91)
The line has moved five points since the summer, and there’s a good reason for that. Las Vegas have covered every week, they lead the league in takeaways and they’re facing a team that has turned it over twice in each of its four games. That combination keeps the Raiders within a score for most of the afternoon.
New England’s defence is good enough to slow Cousins down, and we don’t expect a shootout. That’s exactly why the hook matters. In a game projected around 45 points, with the Under hitting in three of the Patriots’ four games, three and a half points is a meaningful cushion.
Maye’s breakout against Buffalo came against a poor pass defence. Repeating it against the Raiders’ secondary is a much harder ask, and one more turnover could swing it completely. We’ll take the points with Las Vegas, and a Raiders upset at 2.60 wouldn’t surprise us either.
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