- 1 Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s thumb decides the shape of this one
- 2 Carolina Panthers: 29.2 points a game and a quarterback in rhythm
- 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: a 16-3 lead lost to Pittsburgh, and Irving held out of practice
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s thumb decides the shape of this one 
Baker Mayfield hasn’t played since he dislocated his right thumb late in Tampa Bay’s 23-16 loss to Minnesota in Week 3. He was due back at practice on Wednesday for the first time since the injury, and the Buccaneers won’t make a call on Sunday until late in the week.
If he isn’t cleared, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes a fourth straight start. Daniels is 1-2 as a starter, and across his snaps he’s completed 60 of 98 passes for 501 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions.
The game kicks off at 1:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina Panthers are 3-2 and lead the NFC South after winning 25-14 in Philadelphia last week. Tampa Bay are 1-5 and bottom of the division.
The line has swung hard. Tampa Bay opened as 1.5-point favourites. Carolina Panthers are now three-point favourites, with the Panthers around 1.59 on the moneyline and the Buccaneers at 2.42. The total sits at 44.5, and the forecast in Charlotte is 64F with almost no wind.
These two split their meetings in 2025, each winning at home. Carolina Panthers are 3-2 against the spread this season.
I’d want to see Mayfield take a full week of reps before believing he’s ready to win a road game in his first start back. A dislocated thumb on the throwing hand tends to show up late in games, and the fourth quarter is exactly where Tampa Bay lost last week.
Carolina Panthers: 29.2 points a game and a quarterback in rhythm 
Bryce Young has thrown for 1,549 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. In Philadelphia he went 20 of 39 for 281 yards and two scores, with Chuba Hubbard adding 120 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers average 29.2 points a game, among the most productive attacks in the league. They followed a 32-26 Sunday night win over Detroit in Week 4 with the bye, then went to Philadelphia and won by 11.
That Eagles side was without Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, which takes some shine off the result. Carolina Panthers were also flagged 13 times for 149 yards that day. Dave Canales won’t want a repeat against an opponent he knows well from his time as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator.
The defence is the weaker half. The Panthers allow 24.6 points a game, and the season began with 59 points conceded in Chicago. They’ve tightened up since, with a turnover differential of +3.
Injuries are starting to bite in the front seven. Jaelan Phillips aggravated a hamstring and Thomas Incoom hurt a calf in Philadelphia. Xavier Legette (knee) and Jonathon Brooks (core) are out, and A.J. Dillon is questionable with an ankle problem.
Kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is 11 from 11 on field goals. With the line at three points, a kicker who hasn’t missed counts for plenty in a division game.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: a 16-3 lead lost to Pittsburgh, and Irving held out of practice 
Tampa Bay led Pittsburgh 16-3 going into the fourth quarter last Sunday. They lost 26-19 in overtime after Aaron Rodgers threw two late touchdown passes and Daniels threw two fourth-quarter interceptions.
That defeat followed the season’s only win, 24-16 at Dallas on 8 October. Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns that night, and he has 452 rushing yards on 96 carries this season.
Irving didn’t practice on Wednesday, alongside Goedeke and McCollum. The Buccaneers haven’t given details. Without their lead back, an offence averaging 19.8 points and 292.7 yards a game loses its most reliable weapon.
The defence has kept them in games. Tampa Bay allow 23.0 points a game and sacked Rodgers five times last week. Antoine Winfield Jr. practiced in a non-contact jersey on Wednesday.
The receiving corps is thin. Jalen McMillan is out with a knee problem, Emeka Egbuka is listed as questionable and Sean Tucker is a doubt with a quad injury.
The betting record matches the results. Tampa Bay are 1-5 against the spread and 0-4 against it at home, and they’ve scored touchdowns on fewer than half their red-zone trips.
Probable lineup Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young; RB Chuba Hubbard; K Ryan Fitzgerald (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield or Jalon Daniels (decision expected late in the week); RB Bucky Irving if cleared (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our prediction: Carolina Panthers to win (odds 1.59)
Carolina have the better quarterback situation, the better offence and home field. Young has 11 touchdown passes, Hubbard has just run for 120 yards in Philadelphia, and the Panthers score nearly ten points a game more than Tampa Bay.
The case for the Buccaneers rests on a defence that held Pittsburgh to three points for three quarters and on Mayfield getting back in time. I don’t trust either. The same defence gave up 23 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, and a quarterback returning from a dislocated throwing thumb after three missed games is a big ask on the road.
I’d back the Panthers on the moneyline at 1.59. They lead the division, they’ve won two straight, and they face a 1-5 side that may be without both its starting quarterback and its lead running back.
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