- 1 SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart: last season’s fourth-placed side sit 15th and need a reset
- 2 SC Paderborn: one win, one big performance, and a defence missing two centre-backs
- 3 Stuttgart: three defeats from four, but the only win came against the one non-elite opponent
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart: last season’s fourth-placed side sit 15th and need a reset 
Stuttgart finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season. Four games into this one, they’re 15th with three points. Sebastian Hoeness’s side travel to promoted SC Paderborn on Saturday, kick-off 15:30 Paris time, needing a result to stop the early-season slide becoming something bigger.
It’s worth being fair to them. Stuttgart’s opening schedule has been brutal. They’ve already faced Bayern Munich, Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund, and lost all three. The one easier assignment, at home to FC Koln, ended in a 4-1 win.
Paderborn’s story runs the other way. Ralf Kettemann’s side didn’t score in any of their first three top-flight games, drawing 0-0 at Mainz before losing 1-0 at home to Freiburg and 3-0 at Dortmund. Questions were being asked about whether they belonged at this level.
Then came a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim on 20 September. Two goals up by half-time, Steffen Tigges adding a third after the break. That result lifted them to 12th on four points, a point above their visitors.
So which trend wins out on Saturday? The newly promoted side riding a first win, or the established side with a much stronger squad but a poor run on the road? Stuttgart haven’t won any of their last five Bundesliga away games, losing three and drawing two.
The bookmakers have no doubt. Stuttgart are priced around 1.55 to win, with Paderborn out at 4.80. That’s a big gap for a game between two sides separated by a point.
SC Paderborn: one win, one big performance, and a defence missing two centre-backs 
Three goals in four Bundesliga games. All three came in the same match. That’s Paderborn’s attacking output in a nutshell, and it shows how much rested on that Hoffenheim win.
The performance itself was impressive. Paderborn raced into a two-goal lead before half-time and held their nerve after the break, with Tigges sealing it. It was the first sign that Kettemann’s side can compete with mid-table Bundesliga teams rather than simply survive against them.
Defensively, they’ve held up better than most expected. Five goals conceded in four games, 1.25 per match, which is respectable for a promoted side. The 0-0 at Mainz on the opening day showed they can shut a game down when they need to.
The problem is who’s available to do that this weekend. Centre-backs Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant (knee) and Marcel Hoffmeier (muscle) are both out. Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller and Mattes Hansen are expected to form the back three in their place. That’s a reshuffled defence facing a side with real attacking quality.
Midfield is stretched too. Sebastian Klaas misses out with a groin issue, and right winger Timur Gayret is still recovering from his ACL injury. Gabriel Vidovic, Laurin Ulrich and Santiago Castaneda should start in the middle, with Laurin Curda and Raphael Obermair providing the width.
Paderborn did keep busy over the break, winning 1-0 at DC United in a friendly on 30 September. It’s a modest positive. But a side that’s scored in only one of its four league games can ill afford to lose its defensive structure.
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Stuttgart: three defeats from four, but the only win came against the one non-elite opponent 
The 5-1 defeat at Bayern on the opening day set an uncomfortable tone. Stuttgart bounced back with a 4-1 home win over Koln on 4 September, and for a few days the Bayern result looked like a one-off.
It wasn’t. A 2-1 defeat at Hoffenheim followed, then a 1-0 home loss to Dortmund in which Stuttgart didn’t score. Three losses from four league games and nine goals conceded. That’s not where a side with Champions League football expected to be.
And yet the evidence away from the league is better. Stuttgart beat Viking FK 3-1 in the Champions League on 9 September. Over the international break, they beat Heidenheim 3-0 and Greuther Furth 5-0 in friendlies. Eight goals scored and none conceded across those two warm-up games.
The injury list is the issue. Centre-backs Ameen Al-Dakhil (knee) and Dan-Axel Zagadou (thigh strain) are both out, though Jeff Chabot and Finn Jeltsch should cover. Striker Tiago Tomas has a muscle injury, left winger Justin Diehl is recovering from a thigh problem, and Nikolas Nartey is still working back from a muscle issue.
That still leaves Hoeness with real quality in attack. Bilal El Khannouss, Deniz Undav and Chris Fuhrich are expected to play behind striker Dzenan Pejcinovic. Few promoted sides will face a front four with that much creativity this season.
The only previous competitive meeting between these two in recent years came in the DFB-Pokal in January 2023, when Stuttgart won 2-1 in Paderborn. Different squads, different moment. But this is the kind of fixture Stuttgart’s season needs right now.
Probable lineup SC Paderborn: Noll; Ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen; Curda, Castaneda, Ulrich, Vidovic, Obermair; Pieringer, Marino
Probable lineup Stuttgart: Seimen; Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Stiller, Promel; El Khannouss, Undav, Fuhrich; Pejcinovic
Free Bundesliga Prediction: SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart
Our prediction: Stuttgart to win (odds 1.55)
Stuttgart’s league record looks poor, but the context explains most of it. Three defeats came against Bayern, Hoffenheim and Dortmund. Against the one opponent outside that bracket, they scored four. Paderborn are a promoted side with a reshuffled back three and only one scoring performance in four games.
The away record is the counter-argument, and we take it seriously. Five Bundesliga away games without a win isn’t nothing. But Stuttgart’s attacking options, even without Tiago Tomas and Diehl, are far deeper than anything Paderborn have faced since that Dortmund defeat.
The friendly results over the break suggest the squad has used the time well. Stuttgart to win at 1.55 is the pick: a narrow away win, but a win all the same.
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