- 1 Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys: the league’s last-ranked defence on Sunday Night Football
- 2 Green Bay Packers: an eighth-ranked defence playing without Parsons, Hargrave and Cooper
- 3 Dallas Cowboys: 27 points a game, and a defence that ranks last in four categories
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys: the league’s last-ranked defence on Sunday Night Football 
Dallas lost 24-16 at home to Tampa Bay on 8 October as 9.5-point favourites, against a backup quarterback, Jalon Daniels, making only his second career start. That result dropped the Cowboys to 2-3 and kept alive a pattern of alternating wins and defeats through the first five weeks.
The Cowboys now head to Lambeau Field for Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Kick-off is 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday 18 October, which is 02:20 on Monday morning in Paris, with NBC carrying the game. The Green Bay Packers are 3-2 and have won two straight.
Green Bay’s Week 5 win over Chicago was their most convincing performance of the season. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns, although the Bears started backup Tyson Bagent. The earlier wins were narrow: an overtime victory over the New York Jets and a close one against Tampa Bay.
The defensive numbers on the Dallas side are as bad as the league has. The Cowboys rank last in EPA per play, success rate, EPA per pass and yards per play allowed, and 31st in total yards conceded. Their offence sits in the top ten for EPA per play and yards per play and averages more than 27 points per game.
The market has barely split them. Green Bay are 1.5-point favourites, priced at 1.85 on the moneyline, with Dallas at about 2.00 and the total set at 52.5.
The trends point toward points. The Over is 4-1 in Cowboys games this season, while the Under is 3-2 in Packers games, and we think the Dallas profile carries more weight than Green Bay’s.
Green Bay Packers: an eighth-ranked defence playing without Parsons, Hargrave and Cooper 
Green Bay’s defence ranks eighth in the league in EPA per play. That’s despite a long list of absentees at all three levels.
Micah Parsons remains on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL, and he isn’t expected back for this game. Javon Hargrave is out, Edgerrin Cooper is on injured reserve, and Benjamin St-Juste is questionable in the secondary.
The offence ranks 20th in EPA per play. Love has completed 60.5% of his passes for 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in five games, but he ranks 29th in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps.
The skill-position group is thin as well. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, and Jayden Reed and Chris Brooks are on injured reserve, while Skyy Moore is questionable. That puts more volume on Love’s arm, as the Chicago game showed.
Green Bay’s games have been lower-scoring than Dallas’s. Two of their five went over the total this season, against four of five for the Cowboys, and that contrast is the main argument against our pick.
Against the spread, Green Bay are 2-3 overall, 1-1 at home and 0-2-1 when favoured by 1.5 points or more. Lambeau hasn’t been a reliable source of covers this season.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Dallas Cowboys: 27 points a game, and a defence that ranks last in four categories 
Dak Prescott’s offence has carried Dallas through five weeks. A top-ten unit by EPA per play and yards per play, it has scored more than 27 points per game.
The Tampa Bay defeat was the exception, and it came with a cost. CeeDee Lamb was injured in the second half and is listed as questionable for Sunday.
The defensive injury report is longer. DeMarvion Overshown, Joey Porter Jr. and Cobie Durant are all questionable, which could leave an already last-ranked pass defence without its first-choice cornerbacks. Offensive linemen Tyler Guyton and Drew Shelton are also questionable.
Dallas are 3-2 against the spread and 2-0 as underdogs this season. They’ve been more reliable when the market expects less of them, which is the position they’re in at Lambeau.
The Over has landed in four of their five games. With the league’s worst defence by EPA per play and an offence averaging more than 27 points a game, Dallas games have consistently moved past the total.
Probable lineup Green Bay Packers: Starting QB Jordan Love; full depth chart not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: Starting QB Dak Prescott; full depth chart not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
Our prediction: Over 52.5 total points (odds 1.87)
Dallas rank last in EPA per play, success rate and yards per play allowed, and their cornerbacks Porter and Durant are both questionable. Green Bay’s passing game produced 367 yards against Chicago, and facing this defence, Love doesn’t need to be efficient to move the ball.
The other half of the total comes from Dallas. An offence scoring more than 27 points per game faces a Green Bay unit missing Parsons, Hargrave and Cooper, and the Over has cashed in four of five Cowboys games. Lamb’s status is the one real threat to the number, and we’ve accounted for it.
We don’t trust either side enough for the spread at 1.5 points. The total at 52.5 is high, but a game in the high 20s for both teams fits what each has shown this season, and at 1.87 the Over is the pick. With kick-off at 02:20 Paris time, final news on Lamb, Porter and Durant will land late on Sunday evening in Europe, and it’s worth checking the inactive list before placing it.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply