Opta’s supercomputer has made its call
Ten thousand simulations. That’s what Opta ran before kick-off in the Europa League league phase on Wednesday night. The verdict raised eyebrows: Bournemouth came out on top in 14.3% of scenarios. No other side did better.
The English club are into their first European campaign. No history, no yardstick, and a hectic summer with Andoni Iraola heading to Liverpool and Marcos Senesi moving to Tottenham on a free. Marco Rose has taken charge and the early-season form suggests he’s got it right. The Cherries also finish top of the league phase in 15.1% of simulations, again the best figure in the field.
The backdrop helps. Aston Villa won the C3 last year, Tottenham the year before that. Two Premier League clubs in a row. And with Villa having moved into the Champions League off the back of that title, this competition is guaranteed a new winner.
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Benfica keep pace, while Rennes and Lyon fall back
Benfica are next at 14.0%. Marco Silva replaced Jose Mourinho this summer and his side are flying: five wins and a draw from six league games, with 21 goals scored. Across Europe’s top 10 leagues, only Slavia Prague (23) and PSV (22) have more.
Bayer Leverkusen complete the favourites’ podium on 10.2%. Two years on from their unbeaten title under Xabi Alonso, the German club finished sixth in the Bundesliga and handed the reins to Carles Martinez Novell, the former Toulouse coach. A losing start against promoted Elversberg has already raised questions.
Behind them, Union Saint-Gilloise (8.6%), Sunderland (8.3%), Juventus (7.8%) and Crystal Palace (7.3%) make up the chasing pack. The two French sides are well adrift: Rennes are down at 3.9%, Lyon at 3.2%. Milan sit on 5.3%, with Hoffenheim bringing up the rear among the teams above 2%.
Sunderland, the oddity of the season
Sunderland are worth a closer look. The North East club have played in Europe just once before, back in 1973-74 in the Cup Winners’ Cup. They got through one round before losing to Sporting. More than half a century later, Opta gives them an 82.3% chance of reaching the last 16.
At the other end of the scale, two clubs failed to win the competition in 10,000 tries: Torreense and OFI Crete. Ararat-Armenia managed just one winning simulation, a mere 0.01%.
The league phase runs across eight matchdays until mid-January. The top eight go straight through to the last 16, while teams finishing ninth to 24th head into a play-off. The final takes place on May 26, 2027 at the Waldstadion in Frankfurt.
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