- 1 Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: six straight Denver wins, and a Pelicans team on no rest
- 2 Denver Nuggets: 84 points in Oklahoma City and Cam Johnson’s ankle
- 3 New Orleans Pelicans: 0-2, 50.6% shooting allowed and a 12-in-13 losing run
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: six straight Denver wins, and a Pelicans team on no rest 
Denver has beaten New Orleans six times in a row and won eight of the last ten meetings. The most recent was a 122-116 Nuggets win in New Orleans, and on Saturday the series moves to Ball Arena for Denver’s home opener, tip-off 9pm ET.
Both teams are winless. The Nuggets opened with a 96-84 loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday, a game in which they shot 37.8% from the field and 26.7% from three. New Orleans is 0-2 after a home loss to Indiana and a 120-119 defeat in Utah on Friday night.
That Friday game is the context that matters most. The Pelicans played in Salt Lake City last night and fly into Denver for the second half of a back-to-back, while the Nuggets have had Friday off after their trip to Oklahoma City.
The record in that spot is ugly for New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost their last eight road games on the second night of a back-to-back, and they’ve failed to cover in each of their last six road games as an underdog.
Bookmakers have Denver at 11.5 points with the spread priced at 1.91 on both sides. The Nuggets’ moneyline sits between 1.19 and 1.21, New Orleans is out at 4.70 to 5.00, and the total is 237.5.
We think the spread is fair rather than generous. Denver has won 13 of its last 14 regular-season games going back to last season, and it has won its last eight home games against teams with a losing record.
Denver Nuggets: 84 points in Oklahoma City and Cam Johnson’s ankle 
Denver scored 84 points at Paycom Center on Thursday. Aaron Gordon led with 20, DeMar DeRozan scored 13 and Nikola Jokic was held to 13.
Denver led the league in three-point percentage last season at 39.6%, and a 26.7% night with 63.6% from the free-throw line looks like an outlier against that baseline.
The effort on the glass was there. The Nuggets pulled down 53 rebounds in Oklahoma City and held the Thunder to 96 points on 37.9% shooting, which is the kind of defensive line that wins most nights.
Cam Johnson won’t play. He sprained his right ankle in the first half on Thursday, left after 11 minutes with five points, and has been ruled out for Saturday. Johnson averaged 14.8 points over his last 19 games, and Alpha Diallo replaced him to start the second half, though Diallo is himself questionable with a wrist sprain.
Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are also out. Jamal Murray stays in the backcourt, and he has gone under 7.5 assists in each of his last eight games while clearing 4.5 rebounds in six of them.
Denver’s weakness from last season was forcing mistakes. The Nuggets ranked 30th in opponent turnovers at 11.8 per game, which means they win games by scoring efficiency rather than by creating extra possessions.
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New Orleans Pelicans: 0-2, 50.6% shooting allowed and a 12-in-13 losing run 
New Orleans has lost 12 of its last 13 games dating back to last season. Over its last ten, the team went 1-9 while allowing 125.6 points per game.
The Pelicans are scoring 119.5 points per game on 46.6% shooting this season, and they finished second in the league in points in the paint last year at 57.7 per game.
Zion Williamson is averaging 22.5 points and scored 23 in Utah. Saddiq Bey added 20 on Friday and Dejounte Murray 16, and Murray is at 19.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game through two outings.
The defense is where the games are lost. Opponents have shot 50.6% from the field against New Orleans and scored 121.5 per game, and last season the Pelicans ranked 28th in offensive rebounds allowed at 12.7 per game.
That rebounding figure is a problem against this opponent. Denver grabbed 53 boards in its opener, and Jokic and Gordon will get second chances against a frontcourt that has to play its second game in two nights at altitude.
Malik Dia, Jaron Pierre Jr. and Julian Reese are all out. New Orleans has covered nine of its last 12 games against Western Conference teams with losing records, but Denver doesn’t fit that profile, and the Pelicans’ last three games on the second night of a back-to-back all went under the total.
Probable lineup Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, fifth starter to be confirmed after Cam Johnson’s ankle sprain
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Not announced at time of publication (Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson have led the scoring)
Free NBA Prediction: Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
Our prediction: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (1.91)
We’re laying the points with Denver. The Nuggets have beaten New Orleans six straight times, they’ve had a day off while the Pelicans played in Utah last night, and New Orleans has lost its last eight road games on the second night of a back-to-back.
Double digits is a big number for a team that scored 84 in its opener, and Cam Johnson’s absence takes a reliable 14.8 points out of the rotation. We still expect Denver’s shooting to recover at home, and a Pelicans defense allowing 50.6% from the field gives the Nuggets the easiest possible place to find it.
The rebounding gap backs the pick. Denver pulled down 53 boards on Thursday, New Orleans ranked 28th in offensive rebounds allowed last season, and second-chance points are how a 10-point lead becomes a 15-point one in the fourth quarter.
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