Five quarterbacks, five empty thrones
At the start of 2026 camp, five franchises still havent settled on the man under center. Opta has sliced up these quarterback duels with its advanced data, and the verdict often leans toward experience. In Atlanta, Kevin Stefanski has to choose between Tua Tagovailoa, cut loose by Miami after a 6-8 record, and Michael Penix Jr., his 2024 first-round pick who was derailed by a torn ACL. Tagovailoas numbers fit almost perfectly with the system inherited from Cleveland. Edge to the veteran.
In Minnesota, Kevin OConnell is torn between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray. The youngster is coming off a season with 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 57.6% completion rate. Murray, even after a shortened spell because of a foot injury, beats those marks in almost every category. With Justin Jefferson as the No. 1 target, the spreadsheet logic points to the former No. 1 overall pick.
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Cleveland, Las Vegas and Arizona left in limbo
Todd Monken wants a quarterback who can stretch the field and create when the play breaks down. Deshaun Watson, back after eighteen months out, fits that brief better than Shedeur Sanders, who is still a bit short on the key indicators. Advantage Watson.
In Las Vegas, the battle is between Kirk Cousins, reunited with former coordinator Klint Kubiak, and Fernando Mendoza, the latest No. 1 overall pick and Heisman winner. The history books throw in a neat little wrinkle: Baker Mayfield, in 2018, remains the last No. 1 overall pick not to start the first game of his rookie season. So Cousins goes in front, though theres no promise he holds the job all year.
Arizona, the final puzzle
Mike LaFleur, long a member of the Shanahan coaching tree, finally gets the keys to an offense. Jacoby Brissett brings a rare kind of consistency from one system to the next, which puts him ahead of Carson Beck and Gardner Minshew. But none of this is settled on paper. Camp reps and preseason games will decide it, and recent history says a coach rarely follows the stats sheet alone.
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