- 1 Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: a bruised Magpies side against a Villa team fresh from a 6-0 in Europe
- 2 Newcastle United: unbeaten at home, but the Coventry hammering exposed a stretched squad
- 3 Aston Villa: six goals in Europe on Wednesday, six in six league games
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: a bruised Magpies side against a Villa team fresh from a 6-0 in Europe 
Coventry 4, Newcastle 1. That was Monday night, and it’s still ringing around St James’ Park. Matthias Jaissle’s first months on Tyneside have been anything but smooth.
Aston Villa travel north in a very different mood. Unai Emery’s side hammered Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, the kind of result that can reset a season that’s started badly.
And it has started badly. Villa are 16th with five points from six league games: one win, two draws, three defeats. For a club that finished third last season and lifted the Europa League, that doesn’t bear close inspection.
Newcastle aren’t flying either. Eleventh, eight points, two wins, two draws, two defeats. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 13. Middle of the road, with a defence that leaks.
Kick-off is at 18:30 Paris time on Saturday, with Jarred Gillett in the middle. The bookmakers lean towards the home side, Newcastle at 2.20 at best and Villa at 3.00.
Is that fair after the week both clubs have just had? The gap is narrower than the prices suggest, but one number keeps the hosts ahead: Newcastle haven’t lost at St James’ Park this season.
Newcastle United: unbeaten at home, but the Coventry hammering exposed a stretched squad 
The treatment room makes for grim reading. Tino Livramento (knee) missed the Coventry trip, winger Elanga, on two league goals, is out, and young Ivorian midfielder Touré picked up a knock on Monday. Backup keeper Jaouen and Ramsey are unavailable too.
There’s some relief. Dan Burn, Joelinton and William Osula all returned to the bench at Coventry, which hands Jaissle options he didn’t have a fortnight ago. Whether any of them is ready to start is another matter.
Eddie Howe left after a 12th-place finish last season, and Jaissle, formerly in charge of Al-Ahli, was brought in over the summer to change the mood. Six games in, the jury’s still out. The 2-1 win over promoted Hull before the break felt like progress. Then Coventry happened.
Barnes has been the most productive attacker with a goal and two assists. Hall has a goal and an assist from full-back, and Nico, on loan from Manchester City, has chipped in with an assist. Up front, Wissa (one goal, one assist) and Fernandez-Pardo haven’t convinced anyone yet.
The home form is the hook. Newcastle are unbeaten at St James’ Park this term, and it’s the one thing propping up their campaign. Thirteen conceded overall tells you the defence won’t hold firm without the crowd behind it.
Not a great week to be a Newcastle fan. Home comfort still counts for something.
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Aston Villa: six goals in Europe on Wednesday, six in six league games 
Six goals against Fenerbahçe in one night. Six goals in the entire Premier League season so far. That contrast sums up Villa right now.
Emery’s side went four league games without a win before finally breaking through with a 3-2 victory at Tottenham ahead of the international break. Then came a 2-2 home draw with Brentford, two more points dropped at Villa Park. Eleven conceded in six is the worry nobody at the club can ignore.
Jackson, the Senegalese striker signed this summer, has two league goals and has scored in each of the last two league games. Manzambi (one goal, two assists), McGinn (one goal, two assists) and Buendia (one goal) provide the support, while Kamara and Joao Gomes hold the middle of the park.
The left side of defence is the soft spot. Matteo Ruggeri faces more than a month out, Ian Maatsen still isn’t available, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka has been filling in on the left. He coped against Fenerbahçe. Newcastle away is a different examination.
Amadou Onana remains out with a cruciate ligament tear, winger Hemmings is injured and Keba Cissé has only just returned to training. The good news is Leon Goretzka, who made his debut off the bench in the 83rd minute on Wednesday.
Then there’s the schedule. Villa played on Wednesday night, Emery made four changes for that game, and now it’s a trip to the north-east three days later. It won’t get easier from here.
Probable lineup Newcastle United: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Not announced at time of publication
Free Premier League Prediction: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Our prediction: Newcastle or Draw & Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.48)
Newcastle haven’t lost at home this season, and Villa have won once in six league matches. That’s the foundation. The 6-0 in Europe was eye-catching, but Villa’s league form is a separate story, and the numbers there are poor.
We’re covering the draw for a reason. Newcastle’s squad is stretched and the Coventry result showed how fragile they can look, so the double chance is the sensible way in against a Villa side carrying some momentum.
Goals should follow. Newcastle have scored 10 and conceded 13 in six games, Villa have let in 11, and both sides conceded at least twice in their last league outing. Two or more goals with Newcastle avoiding defeat: 1.48.
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