- 1 Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning: a 31.7% power play against a Lightning team 2-3-1 on the road
- 2 Nashville Predators: Stamkos and O’Reilly at seven goals each, and a power play converting 31.7%
- 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s franchise record, and question marks over Hedman and Hagel
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning: a 31.7% power play against a Lightning team 2-3-1 on the road 
Nashville has gone past regulation five times this season and lost all five. The latest was a 4-3 shootout defeat to the Islanders at Bridgestone Arena on Tuesday, after the Predators came back to earn the point.
That’s why the record reads 4-3-5 rather than something better. Thirteen points from 12 games put Nashville fifth in the Central going into Thursday’s home game against Washington, and the team has scored 34 and allowed 36.
Tampa Bay comes to Nashville on Saturday, 31 October, for a 2:00pm ET puck drop. The Lightning went into Thursday’s home game against Winnipeg at 7-3-1, sixth in the Atlantic, but the split is lopsided: 5-0-0 at Amalie Arena, 2-3-1 everywhere else.
Both teams play Thursday at home and neither plays Friday, so it isn’t a back-to-back. Tampa Bay has the travel; Nashville is in the middle of a five-game homestand.
The Lightning won both meetings last season, 5-2 on 28 October 2025, when Zemgus Girgensons scored twice, and 3-2 in Tampa on 29 March 2026. This is the first of two games this season; the second is on 29 December.
Nashville Predators: Stamkos and O’Reilly at seven goals each, and a power play converting 31.7% 
The power play is the headline. Nashville has 13 power-play goals on 41 chances, a 31.71% conversion rate, and it went 4 for 7 in a 6-2 win over Colorado on 25 October. The first unit is Forsberg, O’Reilly, Marchessault, Stamkos and Josi.
Steven Stamkos leads the team with 7 goals and 15 points. Ryan O’Reilly also has 7 goals, with 13 points, and Filip Forsberg has 13 points built mostly on 10 assists. Roman Josi has 11 assists from the back end.
Juuse Saros has started nine games and is 3-2-4 with a 2.81 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. Four of those decisions are overtime or shootout losses. Justus Annunen made 19 saves in the Colorado win.
The penalty kill is just as useful. Nashville kills 87.5% of penalties. The weaker side of the numbers is shot volume: the Predators average 25.6 shots a game and allow around 29, so they spend more time defending than attacking at even strength.
There was one bad night on the recent trip, a 6-0 loss in Boston on 22 October, followed by a 3-2 overtime loss in Pittsburgh. At home, Nashville is 3-2-2. Defenseman William Trudeau has been on injured reserve since 9 October.
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Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s franchise record, and question marks over Hedman and Hagel 
Nikita Kucherov became the Lightning’s all-time points leader on 24 October in Utah, reaching 1,138. He has 14 points this season, 10 of them assists. Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel have 7 goals each, with 13 and 12 points.
Hagel’s status is the first question. He was listed day-to-day as of Thursday. Victor Hedman left the 23 October game with a lower-body injury, missed the next night in Utah and is also day-to-day, and Girgensons is out with a return estimated around 31 October. Yanni Gourde is on injured reserve with a hip injury until around December.
The road trip that ended the last stretch went badly. Tampa Bay won 6-2 in Vegas on 20 October, then lost 6-3 in Colorado and 5-4 in overtime in Utah on consecutive nights. Hildeby took the second game of that back-to-back and stopped 23 of 28 shots.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has started eight games: 5-3-0, a 2.78 goals-against average and a .884 save percentage. Hildeby is 2-0-1 with a .885 save percentage. Neither number is what Tampa Bay is used to, and the team allows 3.09 goals a game.
The special teams split is the one that worries me for the Lightning. Their power play converts 15.0%, 6 for 40, and the penalty kill sits at 76.67%. They do outshoot opponents, 30.4 to 24.5 a game, and score 3.45 goals per game, so the five-on-five play is sound. John Carlson, signed for two years on 1 July, has 5 points on the blue line.
Probable lineup Nashville Predators: Stamkos, O’Reilly, Bourque; Forsberg, Kerfoot, Marchessault; Hoglander, Wood, Colton; Drury, Edstrom. Defense: Josi, Wilsby; Hague, Struble; Skjei, Perbix. Goalie not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel, Cirelli, Kucherov; Goncalves, Point, Guentzel; Mikheyev, Holmberg; Geekie, James. Defense: Moser, Carlson; McDonagh, Cernak; Hedman, Crozier. Hagel and Hedman day-to-day; goalie not announced at time of publication.
Free NHL Prediction: Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Our prediction: Nashville Predators to win (around 2.44)
I’d take Nashville at home at around 2.44. The early market makes Tampa Bay a clear favourite at roughly 1.61, but that price leans on the name and the home record. Away from Amalie Arena, the Lightning are 2-3-1 and have lost their last two road games, giving up 11 goals in them.
The special teams gap is the core of it. A Nashville power play at 31.7% faces a penalty kill at 76.7%, while Tampa Bay’s own power play is at 15.0% against a Predators kill at 87.5%. If Hedman or Hagel misses the game, that gap gets wider.
The risk is obvious from the standings: Nashville has lost five times beyond regulation, and Kucherov and Guentzel can decide a game on their own. Even so, at a price that implies Nashville wins little more than a third of the time, I think the Predators are the better side of the bet.
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