- 1 Montpellier Herault Rugby vs Castres Olympique: the meanest defence against the worst travellers
- 2 Montpellier Herault Rugby: 28-0 against Toulon, and nobody scoring freely against them
- 3 Castres Olympique: three home wins, three away defeats, and a lineout under strain
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Montpellier Herault Rugby vs Castres Olympique
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montpellier Herault Rugby vs Castres Olympique: the meanest defence against the worst travellers 
Montpellier have conceded 139 points in seven Top 14 games, fewer than any other club in the division. Toulouse, top of the table, have let in 157. Castres travel to Montpellier on Saturday with the worst away record in the league: three trips, three defeats.
Kick-off is Saturday 31 October at 15:35 UK time, part of the round 8 multiplex. Montpellier sit seventh on 18 points with four wins and three defeats. Castres are eleventh on 13, a place and a point above Clermont, and only two points clear of the relegation play-off spot.
Both sides won last weekend, and both did it the hard way. Montpellier held on 20-17 against Racing 92 in Le Mans after Jordan Joseph’s late try was ruled out by the video referee. Castres beat Stade Français 16-8 at the Stade Pierre-Fabre with one try, from Adrea Cocagi, and three kicks from Louis Le Brun.
That Castres win ended a run of three straight league defeats: 20-6 at Clermont, 8-7 against Toulouse and 35-26 at Pau. Two of those three came on the road, and the record away from Pierre-Fabre now reads played three, lost three.
The bookmakers have Montpellier at 1.08 and Castres at 8.00. A price that short tells me the result isn’t really the question here. How many points Castres can get on the board against this defence is.
Montpellier Herault Rugby: 28-0 against Toulon, and nobody scoring freely against them 
The headline result of Montpellier’s season so far is a 28-0 home win over Toulon. Toulon have since beaten Pau 41-20 with a bonus point, so that shutout looks better with every week that passes.
Joan Caudullo’s side have won two and lost one at home. The defeat was 27-19 against Pau, and they’ve also beaten Perpignan and Toulon in front of their own supporters. A 30-22 defeat at Stade Français is the other blot on the record.
Montpellier ground out the Le Mans win. They led 12-10 at half-time and 20-10 after Donovan Taofifenua’s try in the 48th minute and an Adam Hastings penalty on the hour. They had a man advantage for around 20 minutes in the first half and struggled to turn territory into points, and Racing’s Josua Tuisova try in the 68th minute made for a nervous finish.
Ruben van Heerden also crossed before the break, with Hastings converting, after a rolling maul had opened the scoring in the third minute. Montpellier have won two of their three away games across competitions recently, including a European win at Bath.
This is a squad that lost the Top 14 final to Toulouse and won the Challenge Cup last season. The attack has been modest, with 183 points scored, but a side conceding under 20 a game doesn’t need to score heavily to win at home.
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Castres Olympique: three home wins, three away defeats, and a lineout under strain 
Castres have built their whole season at home. The 16-8 win over Stade Français was their third at Pierre-Fabre this season, and it lifted them up the table after they’d started the weekend 13th.
Castres led 10-5 at half-time after Samuel Ezeala’s early try for Paris, and forwards coach Julien Tastet admitted his pack had struggled in the scrum and lost four lineout throws. Stade Français made a lot of handling errors, and Castres were happy to take the points those errors offered, without ever pulling clear on the scoreboard.
Le Brun converted Cocagi’s try and kicked two penalties, and Jérémy Fernandez added a third penalty in the 63rd minute. That’s a side winning through field position and goal-kicking, which works at home and has worked much less well on the road.
The away results are the reason for the 8.00 price. Castres lost at Perpignan, then 20-6 at Clermont, then 35-26 at Pau. Scoring six points at Marcel-Michelin is the clearest sign of how blunt this side becomes on the road, and the 35-26 defeat at Pau still came with no bonus point attached.
Across seven games Castres have scored 142 points, the lowest total in the Top 14, and they’ve picked up a single bonus point. Against the league’s best defence, I don’t see where the tries come from.
Probable lineup Montpellier Herault Rugby: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Castres Olympique: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Montpellier Herault Rugby vs Castres Olympique
Our prediction: Montpellier to win and under 45.5 total match points
Montpellier at 1.08 isn’t worth taking on its own, so I’d pair the home win with a low total. Montpellier games have averaged around 46 points this season and Castres games around 43, and the specific results point lower than those averages.
Castres scored six at Clermont and 16 at home against Stade Français. Montpellier kept Toulon scoreless and held Racing to 17. The likeliest shape is a Montpellier win built on territory and kicks, something in the 25-12 range, which sits comfortably under the line.
The risk is a Castres side chasing the game late and opening it up, as they did when they scored 26 in defeat at Pau. Pau have scored 259 points this season, the most in the division, and that game was always going to be open. Montpellier’s defence has conceded 139 in seven games, under 20 a match, and Castres haven’t scored more than 16 in any of the other results listed here.
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