- 1 Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning: a 16-3-0 home record against a 2-3-2 road team
- 2 Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov’s 15 goals and the question of who starts in goal
- 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s request and a power play at 15.2%
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning: a 16-3-0 home record against a 2-3-2 road team 
Minnesota is 16-3-0 all time against Tampa Bay at Grand Casino Arena, and its .658 point percentage against the Lightning is the second best it has against any active franchise. The Wild won 10 straight at home in the series between 2011 and 2024.
The rematch of the 8 October game is on Saturday 7 November in St. Paul, puck drop 8:00pm ET. Tampa Bay won the first meeting 3-2 at home, with John Carlson scoring twice and Dennis Hildeby making 34 saves on his debut. Quinn Hughes and Blake Coleman scored for Minnesota, and Jesper Wallstedt made 32 saves.
The standings have moved apart since. Minnesota went into this week first in the Central Division at 10-3-3, with points in five straight games. Tampa Bay was 8-3-2 with 18 points, fourth in the Atlantic, and its season has split almost entirely by building.
The Lightning have won all six of their home games and are 2-3-2 away. They’ve lost 5-1 and 4-1 at Madison Square Garden and 6-3 in Colorado, then dropped extra-time games in Utah and Nashville.
The schedule is the one thing working against the hosts. Minnesota plays at Philadelphia on Tuesday and hosts San Jose on Friday, so Saturday is the second night of a home back-to-back. Tampa Bay hosts Detroit on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday, then has Friday off before this game.
Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov’s 15 goals and the question of who starts in goal 
Kirill Kaprizov has 15 goals in 16 games, the most in the NHL, and 25 points. His empty-netter in the 5-1 win in Washington on Sunday was also the 500th point of his career, and he’s on a five-game point streak with Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek on his line.
Quinn Hughes has 16 assists from the blue line and scored in Washington as well. Maksim Shabanov and Danila Yurov both found the net in the third period of that game, which pulled a 2-1 score out of reach. Minnesota took two minutes in penalties that night to Washington’s 20.
The team’s goal-prevention numbers have held up despite its injuries. The Wild allow 2.3 goals a game, third in the league, and score 3.3. Brock Faber was only recently cleared to skate after a fractured skull in the preseason, Jared Spurgeon is out week to week after blocking two shots against Utah, and Filip Gustavsson is recovering from hip surgery.
Goaltending is the question for Saturday specifically. Wallstedt went 8-2-3 with a 2.14 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage through 13 starts, then stopped 26 of 27 in Washington. Calvin Pickard has started twice with an .833 save percentage. With back-to-back games at home, one of them will get a start, and we’d want Wallstedt in this one.
The special teams are sound. Minnesota’s power play runs at 25.5% and its penalty kill at 80.9%. At home the Wild were 4-0-1 through their first five, with the only loss a 4-3 overtime defeat to the Islanders on 29 October.
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Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s request and a power play at 15.2% 
Nikita Kucherov asked Tampa Bay for a trade last week and told the club he won’t re-sign when his contract expires next summer. He told teammates on the flight to Nashville, then had three assists there on Saturday in a 5-4 shootout loss. He leads the team with 18 points, 4 goals and 14 assists, from 13 games.
Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel have eight goals each, Hagel with 16 points and Guentzel with 14, and Brayden Point has 11. Carlson has five goals from the blue line, and Victor Hedman scored in Nashville. The Lightning average 3.69 goals a game.
The power play is the part that hasn’t worked. It has converted seven of 46 chances, 15.2%, with Kucherov, Point and Guentzel all on it. Against Minnesota’s 80.9% kill that doesn’t point to a big night with the extra man.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is 5-3-1 with an .883 save percentage and a 2.89 goals-against average, and he allowed four goals on 33 shots in Nashville before losing the shootout. Hildeby is 2-0-1 with an .885. Neither number compares well with Wallstedt’s, and the Lightning allow 3.23 goals a game.
Injuries are minor by comparison with Minnesota’s. Erik Cernak has been day to day, Zemgus Girgensons was listed out until around this week, and Yanni Gourde is on injured reserve until at least 2 December.
Probable lineup Minnesota Wild: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Our prediction: Minnesota Wild to win (moneyline)
We’d weigh the building and the goaltending above the schedule here. The Wild allow nearly a goal a game fewer than Tampa Bay, Kaprizov is scoring at a rate no other player in the league has matched, and the Lightning’s seven road games have produced two wins. Tampa Bay’s .883 starter also has to deal with a Minnesota power play at 25.5%.
The back-to-back is the concession. Minnesota will be playing its second game in two nights against a Lightning team that has had a day off, and if Pickard starts we’d step away. Tampa Bay won the first meeting by one goal, so we aren’t expecting a one-sided game.
Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing. We’d expect Minnesota to be priced as a modest home favorite, above our 1.45 minimum, and we’d confirm the starting goalie before placing anything.
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