- 1 Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: an unbeaten defense against an offense running on empty
- 2 Minnesota Vikings Analysis
- 3 Miami Dolphins Analysis
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: an unbeaten defense against an offense running on empty 
Twenty-three points in two games. That is Miami’s total output over the last fortnight, and the Dolphins now travel to face one of the stingiest defenses in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday 4 October at U.S. Bank Stadium, in Week 4 of the NFL season. Kick-off is set for 22:05 Paris time (4:05 p.m. ET).
The standings could not be further apart. Minnesota are 3-0 after a 23-16 win in Tampa, while Miami are 0-3 after a 24-10 loss to Kansas City.
The Vikings are 10.5-point favourites, and the total sits at 38.5 after falling from the low 40s. That drop followed another heavy blow to the Miami offense.
The game is indoors, so weather will not interfere. Everything comes down to whether Miami can move the ball at all against Brian Flores’ defense.
We do not think they can, and we do not think Minnesota need to run up the score to win comfortably. That combination leads us straight to the total.
Minnesota Vikings Analysis 
Minnesota have built this unbeaten start on defense and field position. That identity fits this matchup perfectly.
Brian Flores’ unit changes the pressure picture after the snap, which is a nightmare for a quarterback who needs simple reads. Linebacker Blake Cashman remained limited in practice but is expected to play.
Kyler Murray runs the offense after being named the starter over J.J. McCarthy, who has since been traded to the Giants. Murray does not need a huge day here, because Miami have not recorded a single sack in three games.
The concern is Justin Jefferson. He hurt his left ankle in the Week 3 win in Tampa and has missed consecutive practices this week.
Aaron Jones returned to practice, which gives Minnesota a reliable way to lean on the ground game. Without Jefferson, the Vikings are likely to play patient, clock-friendly football.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Miami Dolphins Analysis 
Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season. That removes the most explosive weapon on a roster that was already struggling to score.
Malik Willis now leads an offense with even fewer big-play options. Starting center Aaron Brewer was also limited on Thursday with a hand injury.
The Dolphins have the league’s worst early point differential. They scored only 10 points against Kansas City last week and have managed 23 across their last two outings.
The defensive side offers little relief. A pass rush with zero sacks in three games cannot rattle Murray or force the turnovers Miami need to stay in the game.
Miami’s realistic path is to keep the game ugly and hope for short fields. That plan protects the under far more than it threatens the spread.
Probable lineup Minnesota Vikings: QB Kyler Murray, RB Aaron Jones, WR Justin Jefferson (questionable, ankle). Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: QB Malik Willis, C Aaron Brewer (limited, hand). Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins
Our prediction: Under 38.5 total points (odds 1.91)
Miami’s scoring ceiling dropped again with Achane gone, and Minnesota may be without their best receiver. Both factors push this game toward a low total.
The Vikings can win by two scores with defense and a run game, which is exactly what a 27-10 type of result looks like. That still lands under 38.5.
The danger is a defensive touchdown from Minnesota’s pressure. We accept it, because Miami simply do not have the tools to turn this into a shootout.
in your pocket.
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