- 1 Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks: an 0-3 Heat team gets a Dallas roster missing its best player
- 2 Miami Heat: Giannis averages 28.3 points, and the defense behind him has fallen apart
- 3 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s shoulder decides how much is left after 112.3 points a game
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks: an 0-3 Heat team gets a Dallas roster missing its best player 
Miami is 0-3 and has allowed 131, 128 and 115 points. That works out to 124.7 points per game against, and it’s the number hanging over the Heat when the Dallas Mavericks visit Kaseya Center on Monday, October 26, with tip-off at 7:30pm ET.
The summer was supposed to change everything in South Florida. On July 6 Miami traded Tyler Herro, Jaquez, Ware, Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick and further picks and swaps to Milwaukee for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis. Klay Thompson, released by Dallas, followed on August 23.
Three games in, Giannis has done his part on two nights out of three. He scored 35 against Minnesota and 36 with 12 rebounds against Detroit, and Miami lost both by double digits. On Saturday in Charlotte he managed 14 points and fouled out with 1:57 left in a 110-115 loss.
Dallas comes in at 1-2, and its week turned on one play. Cooper Flagg left the 121-105 win in Indiana at halftime with a left shoulder injury after a flagrant foul from Aaron Nesmith, then sat out Saturday’s 106-122 home loss to San Antonio. Coach Dusty May said only that Flagg would be evaluated.
Both teams played back-to-backs on Friday and Saturday and get Sunday off, so neither has a rest edge. The Mavericks fly in from Dallas, and the Heat play their fourth game in six days after a road trip to Charlotte.
The season series was split 1-1 last year. Miami won 106-102 at home on November 24, 2025, and Dallas took the rematch 118-108 on December 3. Most of the players who decided those games have since moved: Herro and Ware scored 20 and 22 in the Dallas loss.
Miami Heat: Giannis averages 28.3 points, and the defense behind him has fallen apart 
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.3 points and 8.0 rebounds on 57.1% shooting. Those numbers haven’t been enough, because Miami’s opponents have scored at least 115 every night.
Anthony Edwards scored 45 at Kaseya Center on opening night and Minnesota won 131-106. Detroit followed with 128 points behind Collins with 23, Reed with 19 and 11 rebounds and Cade Cunningham with eight assists. On Saturday Charlotte got 34 from Miller, 25 from Dennis Schroder and 23 from Naz Reid.
Davion Mitchell has been the surprise of the start. He’s averaging 17.0 points and 8.7 assists, and he scored 22 in Charlotte. Bam Adebayo had 20 that night but is averaging 13.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, and Portis sits at 10.3 points and 6.7 rebounds.
Thompson hasn’t found his range yet. He’s averaging 10.0 points on 34.5% shooting from the floor, which limits the spacing coach Erik Spoelstra hoped to build around Giannis drives.
The injury report is short. Pelle Larsson, who scored 15 in Charlotte, is day-to-day with a finger problem, and no other Heat player was listed. Miami’s 109.0 points per game is enough to beat a Dallas team without Flagg if the defense gets anywhere near its old standard.
I’m not convinced by the 0-3 panic. Two of the three losses came against Minnesota and Detroit, and the third was a five-point game on the second night of a back-to-back with Giannis in foul trouble.
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Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s shoulder decides how much is left after 112.3 points a game 
Cooper Flagg scored 32 points in the season opener at Houston, a 110-128 loss. He added 15 points, five rebounds and six assists in the first half in Indiana before the shoulder injury, and he’s averaging 23.0 points over his two appearances.
Without him on Saturday, the scoring came from unexpected places. Sergio de Larrea, whose draft rights Dallas acquired on June 24, led the team with 21 points, five rebounds and four assists. Gafford had 12 and nine, and Marcus Sasser and P.J. Washington scored 12 each, but Dallas managed only 17 points in the fourth quarter.
Kyrie Irving is averaging 19.5 points. He scored 24 in the Indiana win, hitting 5 of 10 threes, and fouled out for the first time in his career. Washington is at 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds and posted 20 and 13 that night.
The injury list has been long all week. Dereck Lively II is still out after right foot surgery in December 2025. Caleb Martin (thumb), Santi Aldama (knee), Jett Howard (calf) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) are listed as day-to-day, which leaves May with a thin rotation.
Dallas has scored 112.3 points per game and allowed 118.3. May, hired on June 23 from Michigan to replace Jason Kidd, has had his full roster for exactly one half of basketball this season.
The Mavericks also added Zaccharie Risacher from Atlanta on July 19 for Ryan Nembhard, and Aldama and Sasser arrived on July 9. With half of those additions banged up, Dallas will lean on Irving to carry an offense that scored 46 points in the second half on Saturday.
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks
Our prediction: Miami Heat to win
Miami is the team in worse form, and I’m still backing it at home. Giannis has scored 35 and 36 in two of his three games, and Dallas has nobody healthy who matches up with him physically, with Lively out and Aldama day-to-day.
The argument against is plain: a defense allowing 124.7 points per game shouldn’t be trusted against anyone. But the three teams that hurt Miami had Edwards, Cunningham and Miller in form, and Dallas will likely be without its leading scorer for a second straight game. Irving is the one Maverick who can take over, and he’s already fouled out once this season.
No line had been posted at the time of writing. The Heat to win is the pick, and the case gets stronger if Flagg is ruled out before tip-off.
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