- 1 Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings: a team losing by a possession meets a team winning by twenty
- 2 Melbourne United Analysis
- 3 Sydney Kings Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings: a team losing by a possession meets a team winning by twenty 
Melbourne United host the Sydney Kings at John Cain Arena on Sunday 25 October, with tip-off at 7h00 Paris time. It is a Round 6 fixture in NBL27, and the two clubs have not met yet in the regular season.
United arrive on a two-game losing run that looks worse on paper than it felt on court. They dropped an 89-91 game to the Illawarra Hawks on 18 October and a 102-103 game at Perth on Friday, two defeats by a combined three points.
The Kings come in from the other end of the mood chart. They beat the Illawarra Hawks 108-82 on Thursday night, a result that lifted their regular-season record to 5-2.
Both rosters have played within the last three days, so nobody walks in fresh. Sydney travelled to Wollongong on Thursday, United flew in from Perth after Friday night’s one-point loss.
The league schedule gives these clubs two more dates, 29 December and 10 January, both at Afterpay Arena. Until then this Sunday game is the only meeting on the books, and it sets the tone for the season series.
Scoring leaders give the league context. Bryce Cotton leads on 27.4 points per game, with Parker Jackson-Cartwright on 26.6, Sam Mennenga on 23.3, Cole Anthony on 23.0 and Kendric Davis on 22.9, so United’s guard sits among the best scorers in the competition.
The question is blunt: does a United side that keeps losing on the last possession finally close one out? Or does a Kings side that has cleared 100 points in five of its seven games keep rolling?
Melbourne United Analysis 
United’s last five results read like a coin that keeps landing on its edge. A 95-107 loss to Cairns, wins at Adelaide (96-91) and at Phoenix (104-99), then losses to Illawarra (89-91) and Perth (102-103).
That is a 2-3 run in which four of the five games were decided by five points or fewer. Margins that thin say the team is competitive but short of a late-game answer.
The season so far matches that feel. United’s results page shows seven wins and seven losses across preseason, Blitz and regular-season games, a record as up and down as the last fortnight.
The Perth defeat stung for another reason. United had beaten the Wildcats 97-82 at the Blitz on 4 September, so Friday’s one-point loss was a reversal of an earlier statement.
The home record on their results page shows the same split. They beat Phoenix 86-61 on 24 September, the widest margin of their season, then lost 95-107 to Cairns and 89-91 to Illawarra.
Cole Anthony is listed as the starting point guard and sits on 23.0 points per game, fourth in the league scoring list. When he carries the load, United score, but the defence has given up 99 or more in three of the last five.
The injury list thins the backcourt. Chris Goulding is out with a calf injury, with the NBL listing a Round 7 return, and Sean Macdonald is out for the season after a second ACL reconstruction.
The decisive point is the closing minutes. United have lost two straight on the final possession, and a Kings team scoring 100 plus will not hand them a third chance.
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Sydney Kings Analysis 
The Kings opened the season with three straight wins. They beat Cairns 111-90, Illawarra 121-100 and Brisbane 93-78.
Then came two losses: 78-84 at home to Adelaide and 101-102 at the Breakers. Those are the only two regular-season defeats on their schedule page, by six points and one.
The response was emphatic. Sydney beat Perth 102-81 on 17 October and Illawarra 108-82 on Thursday, winning those two games by a combined 47 points.
Travel has not been the issue. Sydney have played two regular-season road games, a one-point loss at the Breakers and a 26-point win at Illawarra.
Scoring is the engine. The Kings have cleared 100 points in five of their seven regular-season games, and they have held three opponents to 82 or fewer.
The injury report is the one worry. Matthew Dellavedova is out with a calf injury, the NBL lists a Round 7 return and the club said he would be re-evaluated, while Keli Leaupepe is out for the season with an ACL injury.
The schedule is the other test. Sunday in Melbourne is followed by a trip to Perth on 28 October and a trip to Tasmania on 30 October, three road games in six days.
The decisive point is depth. Sydney won its last two games without Dellavedova, so the missing guard is already priced into the current form.
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Sydney Kings: Not announced at time of publication.
Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings
Our prediction: Sydney Kings win
Form is the clearest signal on the page. The Kings won their last two by 21 and 26 points, while United lost their last two by a combined three.
The numbers on both sides of the ball back it up. Sydney has scored 100 or more in five of seven games, and United have conceded 99 or more in three of their last five.
United’s home dates on the list include a 25-point win and two losses, so the venue offers no safety net. This is a Kings pick built on current form, not on reputation.
Goulding’s absence thins United behind Anthony, and Dellavedova’s absence is already built into Sydney’s current form. Take the Kings.
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