- 1 Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix: a +7.5 differential meets a 31.7% three-point team
- 2 Melbourne United Analysis
- 3 South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix: a +7.5 differential meets a 31.7% three-point team 
Melbourne United score 98.4 points per game and concede 90.9, a margin of +7.5 that only the ladder leaders better. They host South East Melbourne Phoenix at John Cain Arena on Saturday 14 November, with tip-off at 9h30 Paris time.
This is a Round 9 fixture in NBL27 and the third Melbourne derby of the season. United sit third on the ladder at 7-5, while the Phoenix are ninth at 4-8.
The two sides arrive on opposite trajectories. United have won four in a row, and the Phoenix have lost three straight, the latest a 120-110 home defeat to Illawarra on Wednesday.
The season series already reads 2-0 to United. The first meeting finished 86-61 in Round 2, and the second went 104-99 in Round 4 after the Phoenix had led by as many as 15 points.
The analytical question is narrow: can a team that shoots the most threes in the league at the lowest accuracy keep pace with the NBL’s second-highest scorer? The numbers below frame the answer.
Both previous derbies were played at John Cain Arena, the venue for Saturday. United have already won twice in this building against this opponent in NBL27.
Melbourne United Analysis 
The four-game run is not a set of narrow escapes. United beat Sydney 105-95 on 25 October, won 113-97 in Cairns on 31 October, handled New Zealand 94-74 on 2 November and crushed Brisbane 120-92 on 7 November.
That 28-point win over the Bullets was their largest of the season. Across the four games, the average winning margin sits above 17 points, which is the profile of a side controlling games rather than surviving them.
The defensive figure deserves attention. Conceding 90.9 points per game places United among the stingiest units in the league, and only one of those four opponents reached 97 points.
Cole Anthony is the engine, averaging 24.3 points per game, second in the NBL. He has 292 points through 12 games, a record for the 40-minute era, and went 13 of 14 from the field against Brisbane, where he and Josh Oduro combined for 60 points.
Oduro adds 20.1 points per game and posted 21 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in the Round 4 derby. Captain Chris Goulding is back from injury on around 15 minutes a night, and the only long-term absence is Sean Macdonald (ACL, out for the season).
The Round 4 derby shows how United handle pressure. Down 30-17 after the first quarter and trailing by as many as 15, they came back to win 104-99, with Luke Travers scoring 24 points.
Thursday’s trip to Adelaide is the only scheduling concern. Saturday is United’s second game of the round, so the minutes of Goulding and the starters will be managed closely.
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South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis 
The Phoenix record over their last five reads 2-3. They beat Cairns 115-83 on 17 October and Adelaide 108-94 on 24 October, then lost 98-89 to Tasmania, 110-99 in Sydney and 120-110 to Illawarra.
The Sydney defeat is the most telling data point. The Phoenix led by 21 points in that game and still lost by 11, which points to a team that cannot sustain its peaks over 40 minutes.
Wednesday’s loss exposed the defence. Illawarra shot 56% from the field and led 71-54 at half-time, so the Phoenix spent the second half chasing a 17-point deficit.
The shooting profile is the core issue. The Phoenix attempt a league-high 38.2 threes per game but convert a league-low 31.7%, and in the Round 2 derby they went 4 of 41 from deep.
Nathan Sobey carries the scoring at 18.8 points per game, with 33 against Sydney and 19 plus 9 assists on Wednesday. Skylar Mays (11.7 points, 4.0 assists) has been released and will not be replaced, Daniel Foster remains out with a back injury, and Hunter Goodrick (knee) faces an evaluation before this game.
The offensive glass is the one area where the Phoenix lead the league. They grab 16.4 offensive rebounds per game, which gives them extra possessions to offset their poor shooting.
D’Shawn Schwartz scored 22 points with 8 rebounds on Wednesday, Dash Daniels added 17 and Angus Glover 15. Daniels averages 12.4 points per game, which makes him the second scoring option behind Sobey.
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup South East Melbourne Phoenix: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Our prediction: Melbourne United win
United hold the better differential, the longer winning streak and a 2-0 record in this matchup this season. The Phoenix arrive on three straight losses, one guard lighter after the Mays release, with Foster out and Goodrick in doubt.
The Phoenix conceded 120 points to Illawarra on Wednesday. United’s offence, built around Anthony and Oduro, produced 120 against Brisbane only a week ago.
The visitors’ best weapon is the offensive rebound, at 16.4 per game. Oduro’s rim protection, with 4 blocks in the Round 4 derby, is the direct counter.
The one variable that could flip it is a hot shooting night from the Phoenix, who did lead by 15 in Round 4. United play in Adelaide on Thursday, yet their depth and Anthony’s efficiency cover that short turnaround.
Our pick is Melbourne United to win. The data points in one direction, and a team shooting 31.7% from three needs more than one good quarter to beat this opponent.
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