- 1 Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks: a full week of preparation meets the league’s weakest defence
- 2 Melbourne United Analysis
- 3 Illawarra Hawks Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks: a full week of preparation meets the league’s weakest defence 
Melbourne United host the Illawarra Hawks at John Cain Arena on Sunday 18 October, with tip-off at 8h00 Paris time. It is the closing game of a seven-game Round 5 in NBL27.
United sit sixth on the ladder at 3-3 with a point percentage of 103.53. The Hawks are last at 1-6 with a point percentage of 92.33.
The Hawks have lost three straight, the latest a 110-100 defeat at home to Cairns. Before that they lost 122-112 to Tasmania, which gave them a combined 222 points conceded in two games.
United have had an inconsistent start by their usual standards but come in with a full week to prepare. They won both Round 4 games, beating Adelaide 96-91 and the Phoenix 104-99.
The central statistic is defence. Illawarra allow 108.0 points per game, the highest in the league, while scoring 99.71, the second highest.
Melbourne United Analysis 
United are 3-3 and have won their last two games. Both wins were close, by five points each, which is a sign of resilience rather than dominance.
Josh Oduro scored 84 SuperCoach points in Round 4, the second-best round total. Cole Anthony scored 78 and Luke Travers scored 72.
The win over the Phoenix came after an earlier 86-61 win over that same team. In the Adelaide game, Rakocevic scored 33 points and 14 rebounds for the opponent, and United still prevailed.
Chris Goulding is listed with a calf injury and Sean Macdonald is out for the season with an ACL injury, according to the most recent injury table consulted. The roster is otherwise strong and experienced.
The previews describe United’s experienced roster as well suited to the matchup against weaker defences. A full week of preparation is an advantage heading into the game.
The home court at John Cain Arena adds a familiar setting. United have the profile of a side that should convert favourable matchups.
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Illawarra Hawks Analysis 
Illawarra are 1-6 after three straight losses. Their only win came against Adelaide, and the defence has not held since.
Against Cairns the Hawks shot 37-of-76 from the field and 11-of-30 from three, and grabbed 42 rebounds including 13 offensive. Coach Justin Tatum blamed one-on-one defence for the loss.
Makur Maker scored 18 points and 9 rebounds off the bench on 6-of-7 shooting, and Sam Froling had 16 points and 12 rebounds. Milton Doyle went 0-for-5 from three in that game.
Against Tasmania, Kelan Martin scored 23 points, William Hickey scored 21 and Doyle scored 20. The Hawks scored 112 points and still lost by 10.
The team parted ways with Darius Days and is still looking for a new import. Todd Blanchfield and Mason Peatling are listed as injured.
The offence can produce, with bench scoring of 54 against Cairns. The problem is the defence, which has been outscored in each of the recent losses.
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Illawarra Hawks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks
Our prediction: Melbourne United win
Illawarra concede 108.0 points per game, the highest figure in the league, and have allowed 222 points in their last two games. United have won both of their Round 4 games and have a full week to prepare.
The Hawks can score, so the total may run high. The win should still go to the side with the better defence and the better record.
We pick Melbourne United at home.
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