- 1 Manly Sea Eagles vs St. George Illawarra Dragons: two wins or bust for Manly
- 2 Manly Sea Eagles: the attack is firing again and home suits them
- 3 St. George Illawarra Dragons: the worst away record in the competition
- 4 NRL prediction Manly Sea Eagles vs St. George Illawarra Dragons
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Manly Sea Eagles vs St. George Illawarra Dragons: two wins or bust for Manly 
The task facing the Sea Eagles is simple on paper and brutal in reality: win their last two games and hope the Rabbitohs, Cowboys or Bulldogs slip up. Sitting 10th heading into round 26, they have no room left for errors.
The schedule, at least, gives them a decent opening. The Dragons are 17th, rooted to the bottom, and come in off a flat showing against the Bulldogs. The wooden spoon is now theirs, with St George Illawarra unable to escape last place.
Manly sent out a clear message last weekend with a 44-24 win at Newcastle. The performance mattered as much as the result, because the Sea Eagles finally had some of the fluency that had been missing.
Tom Trbojevic is back at fullback and trying to finish a stop-start season on a high. His presence changes the whole shape of Manly’s attack.
The club also arrives with serious momentum: seven wins from eight since Kieran Foran took charge. That run has dragged the Sea Eagles right back into the hunt.
The sides already met in round 6, in Wollongong, where Manly won 28-18.
That clash offers a useful pointer. Reuben Garrick scored twice and ran for 240 metres, while Tom Trbojevic piled up 195.
Manly Sea Eagles: the attack is firing again and home suits them 
The 44 points put on the Knights last week say plenty about where Manly’s attack is right now. They scored from everywhere, with set-piece shape and broken-play scraps both doing damage.
Josh Feledy bagged a hat-trick in Newcastle, including the first try of his NRL career, and rode that burst to two more. That display earns him a call-up to centre in place of Tolu Koula, who is out with an ankle injury. Tom Trbojevic, meanwhile, racked up 154 metres on his return from injury and instantly gave the attack a different look.
4 Pines Park is a handy venue in this matchup. Manly have won six of their last eight home games against the Dragons.
Jason Saab brings his own eye-catching stat: five tries in his last four outings at this ground. The winger remains the first target on the high ball.
Onitoni Large, 19, comes onto the bench and is in line for his first NRL minutes. Kieran Foran is backing youth in a game where depth could matter late on.
The pack, though, still has its backbone, with the Trbojevic brothers and Haumole Olakau’atu in place. Nathan Brown will play his 200th top-flight match, a marker that matters in a week when Manly need their leaders to stand up.
The Clayton Faulalo-Jamal Fogarty halves pairing is still the main question mark. Against a Dragons defence that has been leaking badly, they should still get enough clean ball to control the pace.
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St. George Illawarra Dragons: the worst away record in the competition 
One stat says all you need to know about the Dragons’ mission: just two wins from their last 18 away trips. No other side in the competition has a worse return on the road.
Last time out did nothing to improve the mood. Trailing 24-0 at half-time against the Bulldogs, the Dragons shipped seven tries in all, with Matt Burton grabbing two despite spending 10 minutes in the sin bin. It was a team collapse that wiped out any hint of progress from the previous few weeks.
The hooking situation has also been turned upside down. Jacob Liddle is out with a calf injury, which sends captain Damien Cook back into the starting side at No 9.
Connor Muhleisen is named on the bench for his first NRL appearance since round 27 of the 2024 season. He is back from an ACL injury suffered in last year’s NSW Cup final and has played four games at that level in August.
Tyrell Sloan is the Dragons’ main individual threat. The winger has scored six tries in seven games against Manly, a rare return for a side that does not score enough.
The issue is structural: without any punch through the middle, Kyle Flanagan is forced to play off slow ball and the line is stuck flat. That is exactly the sort of picture Manly’s aggressive defensive line wants to create.
Projected Manly Sea Eagles line-up: T. Trbojevic; Saab, Feledy, Garrick, Hopoate; Faulalo, Fogarty; Laiafi, Wakeham, Brown, Olakau’atu, B. Trbojevic, J. Trbojevic. Bench : Simpkin, Lenaz, Waddell, Navale.
Projected St. George Illawarra Dragons line-up: Atkinson; M. Feagai, Suli, Holmes, Sloan; King-Togia, Flanagan; Pasifiki Tonga, Cook, T. Couchman, Egan, Stewart, R. Couchman. Bench : Muhleisen, Kerr, Halangahu, Webster.
NRL prediction Manly Sea Eagles vs St. George Illawarra Dragons
Our prediction: Manly Sea Eagles to win with a -5.5 handicap
The Dragons’ two wins from 18 away games make the spread the only sensible angle here. The price on a straight Manly win offers no value.
Manly put 44 points on the Knights last week and have won six of the last eight meetings at 4 Pines Park. The table situation also pushes the Sea Eagles to chase points, not just results.
Manly should win by at least nine. The race for the top eight means the home side cannot afford to coast through this one.
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