- 1 Malaga vs Villarreal: a newly promoted side on one point against a Yellow Submarine still hunting its first win
- 2 Malaga: one goal in three games and seven conceded
- 3 Villarreal: five games without a win and a defence that keeps folding
- 4 La Liga prediction Malaga vs Villarreal
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Malaga vs Villarreal: a newly promoted side on one point against a Yellow Submarine still hunting its first win 
Malaga have picked up just one point from their first three league games, Villarreal two. Both clubs go into Thursday facing the same ugly problem: they still havent won.
Kick-off is on Thursday 17 September at 21:30 CEST, at La Rosaleda. The Andalusian ground, with its 30 044 seats, closes out this sixth round of the season.
The newly promoted Malaga side are back in the top flight after eight years away, having beaten Almeria 2-1 in the playoff. The step up has been brutal.
Villarreal, meanwhile, were in Champions League action just ten days earlier and were eyeing Europe this summer. Their points tally, though, is hardly any better than their hosts.
Inigo Perez took charge of the Yellow Submarine on 1 June 2026 after Marcelino left. The former Rayo Vallecano boss is still waiting for his first win.
Across the divide, Juan Francisco Funes is discovering the Spanish top flight with a promoted squad. One goal in three games sums up the size of the attacking job in front of him.
So this is a meeting between two sides that inspire no confidence, just for different reasons. One cant score, the other cant defend.
That crossed imbalance is exactly what makes the game easy enough to read, despite the surface noise. The call rests on those two opposite weaknesses.
Malaga: one goal in three games and seven conceded 
Malaga have scored once in their first three league games, and conceded seven. One point, no wins, and the reality of the level hit fast.
On 19 August, the Andalusians lost 2-0 away to Atletico Madrid in their opening away trip. It never really looked like going their way.
Five days later, La Rosaleda hosted Deportivo La Coruna for a 1-1 draw, their only point so far. It was also the only game in which Malaga found the net.
The trip to the Santiago Bernabeu on 30 August ended in a tidy 0-4 defeat. Three games, three very different storylines, but one constant: the attack has gone missing.
That explains why Malaga were already down in 18th and in the relegation zone by the end of August. They have not climbed out of the bottom pack since.
Promotion, though, was earned the hard way, with that decisive 2-1 win over Almeria in the playoffs. Eight years later, the return to the big time is proving expensive.
Ramon Enriquez wears the armband for a side that has to learn how to turn half-chances into goals. Without end product, a promoted team does not survive.
Hosting an opponent that leaks goals is the clearest opening Malaga have had since August. They still have to hit the target, of course.
Try it for $0.99.
Villarreal: five games without a win and a defence that keeps folding 
Villarreal were on a run of five matches without a win in all competitions before hosting Real Betis. No other side at the top end of Spanish football has started quite so badly.
They opened with back-to-back 2-2 draws against Racing Santander and Atletico Madrid. Two games, four goals conceded, and the tone was set.
Then came two defeats: 1-0 at Mendizorrotza against Alaves, then 3-2 at home to Deportivo La Coruna. Losing at La Ceramica to a promoted side changed the mood around Inigo Perez.
In the Champions League, the Yellow Submarine lost 3-2 in Dortmund despite a Santiago Mouriño header and an own goal from the hosts in stoppage time. That made it five without a win, in a competition that gives nobody a second glance.
The defensive verdict is brutal: Villarreal have conceded at least two goals in four of their first five outings. The shape at the back has never really held up for a full 90 minutes.
Peter Gulacsi started in Dortmund ahead of Luiz Junior, a sign the coach is still searching for balance at the back. Carlos Romero and Juan Foyth have also missed several matches through injury.
The schedule is not helping, with three games in a week against Betis, Malaga and Levante before the international break. Rotation is no longer a choice.
There is one encouraging note: Villarreal do score. Four goals in their first three league matches and two more in Dortmund means the issue is not up front.
The tactical question of the night is simple: can Inigo Perez finally find some defensive control against the quietest attack in the division? Few fixtures on the Andalusian calendar offer a better chance.
Malaga, for their part, will have to come out and have a go if they want anything more than a draw. One point from three games says enough already, and sitting deep at home against a club in trouble is not a survival plan.
Expected Malaga line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Expected Villarreal line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
La Liga prediction Malaga vs Villarreal
Our prediction: Villarreal to win
Malaga have scored just once in three league games, and conceded seven. An attack producing at that level does not punish a shaky defence, it gets punished.
Villarreal, despite that winless run, have scored four league goals in three games and another two in Dortmund. The Yellow Submarine are dropping points because they keep conceding, not because they cant create.
On paper, this is exactly the sort of opponent Malaga should welcome. In reality, the Andalusians dont have the weapons to take advantage. Their only goal of the season came against another newly promoted side.
The call is clear: Villarreal finally get off the mark with a win at Malaga on Thursday night at La Rosaleda.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
First, a word on our free predictions
- What we publish on mathodds is analysis, nothing more. We share an opinion, a read on the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport is still sport: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a goal out of nowhere… and the script changes completely.
- Lets be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks obvious, nothing really is. And yes, that means you can lose. In fact, sooner or later, you will.
- The smart move is to stay sensible. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Do not touch money you need to live on. And above all: do not chase losses, it almost never ends well.
- A bet should stay a game, not a job or a source of income. If you feel it is taking up too much space in your life, making you angry or putting you under pressure, take a break. And if you need to, speak to a specialist support service. That is what it is there for.
- In the end, responsibility is yours. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and that it will never disappear, even with the best analysis in the world.
- Important reminder: betting is forbidden to minors and must comply with the law in your country. Gambling can quickly spiral out of control (money losses, family tension, addiction). Need Help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In the UK? Visit https://www.gambleaware.org/https://www.gambleaware.org/.
No commitment from us
Our predictions are not a contract. They carry no legal force. In plain English: you cannot use them to demand anything if a bet does not come through.
Information that changes
A prediction is always based on what we know when it is written. But in the meantime, a line-up changes (like Malaga’s, for example), a player gets injured, the weather turns nasty… and the analysis can quickly be out of date. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your role
Before you bet, check that wagering is legal where you are. If it is not, that is your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling first
We cannot say it enough: bet in moderation. If you are struggling to keep control, do not wait to get help. We cannot be responsible for compulsive or excessive use of the information published on the site.
Legal age
mathodds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm that you are old enough to bet under the law.
About the visuals…
The Malaga and Villarreal images and logos on mathodds, including those linked to La Liga, are used only to illustrate our articles. They do not mean we have any official link with a federation or sports body, and we do not claim any rights over them.
Those rights belong to the original creators. If, despite our care, any visual causes a problem, contact us: it will be removed without delay.
Our only aim with these images is to make the reading experience better. Nothing more. No commercial gain, no taking credit for anyone else’s work.
Leave a Reply