- 1 Luxembourg vs Estonia: 270 minutes without a goal, and no Barreiro
- 2 Luxembourg: Barreiro and Sinani out after three straight defeats
- 3 Estonia: unbeaten in six, with five clean sheets in that run
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Luxembourg vs Estonia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Luxembourg vs Estonia: 270 minutes without a goal, and no Barreiro 
Luxembourg have gone 270 minutes without scoring. After winning 2-1 in Plovdiv on the opening night of the group, Jeff Strasser’s side lost 3-0 at home to Iceland, 1-0 in Tallinn and 2-0 at home to Bulgaria.
Luxembourg vs Estonia is on Friday 13 November at the Stade de Luxembourg, kick-off 19:45 UK time, on matchday five of League C Group 4. Iceland lead on eight points, Estonia are second on six, Bulgaria have four and Luxembourg three.
Second place earns a promotion play-off against a League B side in March 2027. Estonia are two points behind Iceland and still have Bulgaria to come in Tallinn on Monday, so a result here keeps them in charge of that race. Luxembourg are trying to get off the bottom.
Estonia won the reverse fixture 1-0 on 3 October, Rasmus Peetson scoring after five minutes. It was their third win in four meetings with Luxembourg, who have never beaten them. The other game, a friendly in April 2000, finished 1-1.
The bookmakers still make Luxembourg favourites at 2.10, with Estonia at 3.45. I don’t agree with that order, and the team news makes it harder to agree with.
Luxembourg: Barreiro and Sinani out after three straight defeats 
Leandro Barreiro scored Luxembourg’s first goal of the campaign, on 37 minutes in Plovdiv, before Vincent Thill got the winner on 65. Barreiro, now at Benfica, is injured and misses this window.
Danel Sinani of Sampdoria is out too. He scored the only goal of Luxembourg’s 1-0 friendly win in Albania on 6 June. Christopher Martins and Yvandro Borges are injured as well, and Hellas Verona’s Seid Korac isn’t in the squad.
Captain Laurent Jans, who went off injured against Iceland on 29 September, is fit again. Strasser has also named two uncapped players, Farid Ikene of Racing Union and Patrick Macedo of Résidence Walferdange.
That leaves Waldhof Mannheim’s Vincent Thill as the only Luxembourg scorer from this campaign still available. Nobody else in the squad has scored in the group, and Mainz forward Videira led the line in Tallinn without a goal.
Two of the three defeats came at this ground. Iceland were 2-0 up by half-time on 29 September, and Bulgaria led 2-0 after 34 minutes on 6 October through Kristiyan Balov and Atanas Iliev.
Strasser’s side got through the March play-off against Malta without conceding, 2-0 away and 3-0 at home. That version of Luxembourg kept things tight, and it’s the one they’ll need against an opponent that rarely scores more than once.
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Estonia: unbeaten in six, with five clean sheets in that run 
Estonia have conceded one goal in six games. Since June they’ve beaten the Faroe Islands and Lithuania 1-0 at the Baltic Cup, drawn 1-1 in Iceland, drawn 0-0 in Bulgaria, beaten Luxembourg 1-0 and drawn 0-0 with Iceland in Tallinn.
Scoring is the other half of that record. Estonia have two goals in four group games, both from defenders: Gent’s Maksim Paskotši in Iceland and Peetson against Luxembourg. Jürgen Henn’s side have built their campaign on keeping the opposition out.
Henn has lost players for this trip. Märten Kuusk, who started the 1-0 win over Luxembourg, is out for health reasons, along with Rauno Sappinen, Vlasi Sinjavski, Markus Soomets and Robi Saarma.
The spine is intact. Bochum’s Karol Mets has 107 caps, Thun’s Mattias Käit has 11 international goals, and Werder Bremen’s Karl Jakob Hein and Matvei Igonen are both in the goalkeeping group. Portsmouth’s Rocco Robert Shein and Saint-Étienne’s Marten-Chris Paalberg come back into the squad.
In October Henn used a back three of Paskotši, Kuusk and Mets, with Käit and Markus Poom in midfield. The same shape is likely on Friday, with Kuusk’s place the obvious change.
Probable lineup Luxembourg: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Estonia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Luxembourg vs Estonia
Our prediction: Estonia +0.5 (draw or Estonia win) (odds 1.69)
Estonia haven’t lost since a 2-0 defeat in Rwanda in March and have kept five clean sheets in six games. Luxembourg haven’t scored in three and are without the player who scored first for them in September.
I’d take Estonia on the +0.5 line at 1.69, which pays on a draw or an away win. A 0-0 or a 1-1 looks as likely as anything else on Friday night.
The risk is Estonia’s own attack, with two goals in four group games, so a single Luxembourg goal could be enough to beat them. I’ll take that risk at this price. Under 2.5 goals at 1.56 is the other way in for anyone who’d rather stay off the result.
The goal counts back that up. Estonia’s four group games have produced two, zero, one and zero goals. Luxembourg’s have produced three, three, one and two, and the two three-goal games were the 2-1 win with Barreiro in the side and the 3-0 home defeat to Iceland, the group’s top scorers.
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