- 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers: 265 points in the first meeting and two offenses shooting from everywhere
- 2 Los Angeles Lakers: Doncic and Reaves at 60 a night, and a center who rarely misses
- 3 Portland Trail Blazers: 15.8 threes a game without Morant or Sharpe
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers: 265 points in the first meeting and two offenses shooting from everywhere 
Luka Doncic made 8 of 12 threes on Sunday night and finished with 45 points and 15 rebounds in a 131-125 win over Toronto. The number that matters for this preview is the one the Lakers gave up: 125 points, at home, to a Raptors team that had spent the first week of the season holding opponents near 102.
Portland has already shown what it can do in this building. The Trail Blazers won 136-129 at Crypto.com Arena on 27 October, Damian Lillard hit the three with 43 seconds left that closed it out, and the two teams combined for 265 points.
The rematch comes on Friday 6 November, tip-off 10:00pm ET, in the same arena. Portland punished Doncic’s giveaways in that first game, and his 5.8 turnovers a night remain the clearest weakness in the Los Angeles offense.
Both teams arrive with miles on them. The Lakers host Miami on Monday, the second night of a back-to-back, and then go to Sacramento on Wednesday, which makes Friday their fourth game in six nights. Portland plays in Denver on Monday and in Phoenix on Wednesday before finishing the trip in Los Angeles.
The Lakers have allowed 125 in their latest game, and Portland gave up 129 on its last visit here. The total is where I think the value sits, and the reasoning starts with how each of them gets its points.
Los Angeles Lakers: Doncic and Reaves at 60 a night, and a center who rarely misses 
Doncic went into Sunday’s game averaging 36.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists on 48.4% shooting and 39.6% from three, and his 45 will have pushed those numbers higher. Austin Reaves adds 24.4 points on 56.9% from the field and 48.1% from deep, so the two guards produce around 60 points on their own.
With LeBron James gone, nearly all the creation runs through that pair. Walker Kessler benefits most. He’s shooting 75.0% from the field, including 12 of 12 on his debut against Golden State, and he’s averaging 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks.
The Lakers had scored 125 or more in four of their first six games before they put up 131 on Toronto. Collin Sexton scores 12.0, and Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili add 10.2 each.
The worry is workload. Doncic missed the second night of a back-to-back on 28 October with back tightness, and the Lakers still won 103-87 at the Clippers without him. With Monday’s game against Miami coming straight after Sunday’s and a trip north to follow, he may need a night off this week, and that would change the numbers for Friday.
The other warning came at Golden State on 30 October, where the Lakers led 38-15 after one quarter, let a 25-point lead go and lost 112-95. Doncic scored 37 that night and Stephen Curry finished with 31.
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Portland Trail Blazers: 15.8 threes a game without Morant or Sharpe 
Portland acquired Ja Morant from Memphis in June, and he’s now out with a hamstring injury. Shaedon Sharpe is also out with a meniscus injury. The Trail Blazers went into this week 4-1 anyway, with a scoring margin of +11.4 a game, fourth in the league in scoring at 120.6.
The three-point line is the reason. Portland makes 15.8 a game, third in the NBA, and Toumani Camara has turned into the leading shooter at 4.0 made threes a night, fourth in the league. He’s scoring 15.2 points, and most of them come from out there.
Deni Avdija runs the offense, with 23.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists. Lillard adds 19.2 points and 3.2 threes, Jrue Holiday 12.4, and Donovan Clingan takes care of the glass with 9.0 rebounds a game. The team out-rebounds its opponents 46.4 to 40.6.
Portland’s defense has mostly done its job, allowing 109.2 points, 10th in the league, and it opened the season with a 124-83 win over Phoenix after leading 21-0. Memphis exposed it on 29 October, though, winning 124-103 at the Moda Center and outscoring the Trail Blazers 66-45 after halftime.
Sacramento lost to Portland by only eight at home on 23 October, while allowing 128. The 136 in Los Angeles remains the best evidence that this offense travels against a team with real scoring power.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Lakers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Portland Trail Blazers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers
Our prediction: Over on the game total
No total had been posted for Friday at the time of writing. I’d play the over at a price of 1.45 or better as long as the line opens below 240, and I’d pass if Doncic is ruled out.
The first meeting produced 265 points. Since then the Lakers have kept scoring 125 or more, Doncic has shot 8 of 12 from three on one night, and Portland has stayed third in the league in made threes without its two injured guards. Both teams will also be playing their third game in five nights or worse.
Portland’s defense does sit in the top 10, and the first meeting ran hot. I still hold the pick: the Lakers have the two best guards on the floor, Portland has the volume from three, and neither roster has shown it can slow the other down.
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