- 1 Lorient vs Brest: Mvogo’s clean sheets against a Brest side that creates plenty
- 2 Lorient: 0.8 goals conceded per game and three straight shutouts
- 3 Brest: second for expected goals, still waiting for a clean sheet
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lorient vs Brest
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Lorient vs Brest: Mvogo’s clean sheets against a Brest side that creates plenty 
Yvon Mvogo has kept four clean sheets in Ligue 1 this season, level with Lille’s Berke Ozer for the most in the division, and Lorient haven’t conceded a league goal in three matches. Brest, their visitors at the Moustoir on Monday 2 November (19:45 UK time), rank second in the league for expected goals.
The Breton derby was due to be played on Saturday night. The Lorient sub-prefecture asked for it to be moved because of national protests planned for 31 October, and the authorities class it as a high-risk fixture that would tie up several mobile police units. The league agreed and kept the same evening kick-off, 20:45 local time, two days later. It’s now the last game of the ninth round, so both clubs will know every other result before kick-off.
Lorient sit ninth, four places above Brest in 13th. Alexandre Dujeux’s side have taken points in five of their last six league games, with 1-0 wins over Paris FC and Monaco and a 1-0 win at Lens in that run.
Brest come in after a home defeat to Nice. Ludovic Ajorque scored first at the Francis-Le Blé, and Nice turned it round in the second half to win 2-1. That fits a pattern that has cost Brest heavily: they’ve dropped 10 points from winning positions this season, seven of them away from home.
Recent meetings favour the visitors. Brest are unbeaten in their last four games against Lorient and have taken points on both of their last two trips to the Moustoir. I don’t think that history counts for much against the way Lorient are defending this autumn.
Lorient: 0.8 goals conceded per game and three straight shutouts 
Dujeux’s approach is cautious, and the numbers reflect it. Lorient concede 0.8 goals per game, joint-best in the league with Lille, and they score 0.9. Their 13 big chances created is the joint-lowest total in Ligue 1, and they’ve still climbed into the top half.
That profile produces narrow games. Three of their last six league matches finished 1-0 in their favour, and last weekend’s trip to Angers ended 0-0. Every one of their last six league games was either drawn or decided by a single goal.
Dujeux arrived from Angers in the summer, and the club belongs to the same multi-club ownership group as AFC Bournemouth. His Lorient side are rated among the least proactive in the division, which fits with the low number of big chances they create.
The shape is a back three of Adjei, Talbi and Toure, with wing-backs on either side of Cadiou and Avom. Makengo and Jensen play behind Ibrahima Balde, who leads the line on his own.
Injuries could disturb that structure. Panos Katseris is out with a hamstring problem, Bandiougou Fadiga and Noah Mbamba are doubtful, and Mohamed Bamba may miss the game with physical discomfort.
Home form has been steady. Lorient are unbeaten in their last three league games at the Moustoir, and the only league defeat in their last six came away at Le Mans, 2-1.
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Brest: second for expected goals, still waiting for a clean sheet 
Brest create chances. Their expected goals figure of 16.9 is second in the league, and Kamory Doumbia, with four goals, and Ajorque, with three, give them two scorers in the same front line.
The other half of their game is much weaker. Brest haven’t kept a clean sheet all season, and they’ve won once in their last nine away league games, 2-1 at Le Havre in early September.
Their recent results swing widely. They beat Angers 5-1 at the Francis-Le Blé and drew 1-1 at Lille, but they also lost 1-0 at home to PSG and 2-1 at Auxerre before the Nice defeat. The draw at Lille, who share the league’s best defensive record with Lorient, is the result that suggests they can score against a well-organised back line.
The defence is short of bodies. Brendan Chardonnet has a sore calf and Raphael Le Guen is still recovering from a broken fibula, while Giovani Versini and Romain Cagnon are doubtful.
The probable side has Selvik in goal, Lala, Tousart, Lloris and Locko across the back, and Chotard and Magnetti in midfield. Mboup and M. Balde should start either side of Doumbia, with Ajorque up front.
Probable lineup Lorient: Mvogo; Adjei, Talbi, Toure; Le Bris, Cadiou, Avom, Kouassi; Makengo, Jensen; I. Balde
Probable lineup Brest: Selvik; Lala, Tousart, Lloris, Locko; Chotard, Magnetti; M. Balde, Doumbia, Mboup; Ajorque
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lorient vs Brest
Our prediction: Lorient to win (2.36)
Lorient are priced at 2.36, with Brest at 2.86 and the draw at 3.17. For a side that hasn’t conceded in three league games, at home to a team with one away win in nine, I think that price is generous.
Brest will create something, because their expected goals numbers say they always do. Holding on is what they struggle with: seven points dropped from winning positions on the road and no clean sheet all season mean Lorient’s limited attack only needs one chance to go in.
The head-to-head is the honest argument against, with Brest unbeaten in four meetings. Lorient’s 1-0 wins over Paris FC, Monaco and Lens all came against sides sitting above Brest in the table, and another 1-0 is the result I expect on Monday night.
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