- 1 Lille vs Lens: six home derby wins in seven since 2015, against a Lens side on a three-game run
- 2 Lille: a stingy league defence, but four games without a win in all competitions
- 3 Lens: three league wins in a row, and Thauvin leading the scoring
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lille vs Lens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lille vs Lens: six home derby wins in seven since 2015, against a Lens side on a three-game run 
Tanguy Nianzou was sent off on 66 minutes at Monaco on Sunday for a late challenge on Brunner, and Lille spent the last half-hour defending a lead they eventually lost. Berke Ozer made five saves to protect the 1-1, and the point was enough to put Davide Ancelotti’s side top of Ligue 1 for a few hours.
A straight red usually means a ban, so Lille are likely to go into Friday’s derby against Lens without Nianzou. The match is at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Friday 30 October, kick-off 20:05 UK time.
Lille are second on 15 points from eight games, with four wins, three draws and one defeat. Lens are seventh on 13, two points behind, and they arrive on a run of three straight league wins: 2-1 against Lyon, 3-1 at Troyes and 2-1 against Paris FC on Saturday.
Both sides have had a hard time in the Champions League this month. Lille lost 3-0 at Arsenal and 4-2 at home to Galatasaray, and Lens were beaten 2-0 at home by Sporting and 3-0 at Club Brugge on 21 October.
The derby history in Lille is lopsided. Since 2015, Lille have won six of their seven home league meetings with Lens, including the last four, the most recent a 3-0 win in April.
The prices are close: Lille 2.30, the draw 3.60 and Lens 2.75. I’m siding with the home side, and the reason is what this fixture usually looks like at Pierre-Mauroy rather than the last month of results.
Lille: a stingy league defence, but four games without a win in all competitions 
Lille have conceded six goals in eight league matches, and only Lyon among the top six have let in fewer. They’ve scored eleven, which is modest for a side in second place, and it makes them the kind of team that wins games by a goal.
Their league results have followed that pattern. They beat Troyes 2-0 and Le Havre 1-0 at home, drew 2-2 with PSG in August, and then drew 1-1 with Brest and 1-1 at Monaco either side of the European defeats.
The four-game run without a win is the concern. Since beating Le Havre on 10 October, Lille have drawn twice in the league and lost twice in the Champions League, conceding seven goals in those two European games.
Home form in Ligue 1 has held up. Lille are unbeaten in their last four league games at Pierre-Mauroy, a run that includes the 2-2 with PSG, the 1-1 with Brest and wins over Troyes and Le Havre.
Ethan Mbappé scored his first league goal of the season at Monaco, cutting in to finish Diaoune’s pass. Olivier Giroud stayed on the bench for the whole 90 minutes, and Mbappé, Giroud, Bakwa and Ueda are among several Lille players on two goals each this season, so the scoring is spread thin.
The Nianzou suspension is the main selection problem. Ngoy, Alexsandro Ribeiro and Perraud are the other defenders expected to start, with Andre and Bentaleb screening them in a 4-2-3-1.
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Lens: three league wins in a row, and Thauvin leading the scoring 
Lens have won three consecutive Ligue 1 games and scored seven goals in them. Before this run, Dino Toppmöller’s side had taken one point from their two September league games, losing 2-1 at Monaco and drawing 2-2 at Le Mans.
The league run has been built at home as much as away. Lyon and Paris FC were both beaten 2-1 at the Bollaert, and the 3-1 at Troyes was their most comfortable result of the month.
Florian Thauvin is the leading scorer with four league goals, and Ivanovic and Udol have two each. Toppmöller has used a 3-4-2-1, with Risser in goal and Todibo in the back three.
Europe has been a different story. Lens have lost both of their October Champions League games without scoring, 2-0 at home to Sporting and 3-0 at Club Brugge, conceding five across the two.
The derby record away from home isn’t encouraging either. Lens have won once at Lille in the league since 2015, and their last two visits ended 1-0 and 3-0 to Lille.
They did win the reverse fixture 3-0 in September 2025, so they know how to beat this opponent. That result came at the Bollaert, though, and the last four meetings in Lille have all ended in Lille wins.
Probable lineup Lille: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Lens: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lille vs Lens
Our prediction: Lille to win @ 2.30
Lille have won the last four league derbies at Pierre-Mauroy and six of seven there since 2015. They’ve conceded six goals in eight league games, and they’re unbeaten in their last four home league matches.
The case against the pick is real: Lens have won three league games in a row, Lille haven’t won in four across all competitions, and Nianzou’s red card at Monaco leaves a gap in the back line. But Lens have also lost both October Champions League games without scoring, and they’ve lost on both of their last two league visits to Pierre-Mauroy, 1-0 and 3-0.
At 2.30, the price gives Lille less credit than their home record in this fixture deserves. I’d back the home side to win.
in your pocket.
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