- 1 Lille vs Le Havre: the only winless side in Ligue 1 visits a defence that’s conceded four
- 2 Lille: three clean sheets in five and a home record to protect
- 3 Le Havre: four goals, two points and a goalkeeping crisis
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lille vs Le Havre
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lille vs Le Havre: the only winless side in Ligue 1 visits a defence that’s conceded four 
Le Havre are the only team in Ligue 1 without a win. Five games, two points, bottom of the table. And they’ve scored four goals.
That’s what Lille face at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:15 Paris time. Davide Ancelotti’s side sit fourth on ten points, with three wins, a draw and one defeat, and one of the meanest defences in the division. Four goals conceded in five league games, three clean sheets.
There’s a sour note going into the weekend, though. Lille went into the international break off the back of a 2-1 defeat at Nice, a side that hadn’t won a league game until that afternoon. Ayase Ueda pulled one back late, but the damage was done. First league loss of the season.
So which Lille turns up? The one that won at Angers and Toulouse without conceding, or the one that let Nice off the hook? On home soil, against this opponent, the answer looks fairly clear.
Lille also have a Champions League date with Arsenal on the horizon. That’s a distraction, not an excuse. Ancelotti can ill afford to drop points against the bottom side with that fixture coming.
The market makes Lille around 1.45 to 1.48. For once, the favourite’s price holds up.
Lille: three clean sheets in five and a home record to protect 
Three clean sheets from five league games. That’s the foundation of Lille’s start.
They opened with a 2-0 win at Angers, drew 2-2 at home with PSG, won 1-0 at Toulouse and then beat Troyes 2-0 at the Pierre-Mauroy. Eight goals scored, four conceded. Not spectacular going forward. Very hard to break down.
The Nice defeat stings, but there’s context. It was Lille’s first loss in the league, it came away from home, and it followed a 3-2 Champions League defeat at home to Real Betis earlier in September. Two defeats in three matches across all competitions isn’t a crisis. It’s a wobble.
Ancelotti, appointed in the summer in a move that surprised plenty, has built a side that knows what it’s about. Berke Ozer in goal, Nathan Ngoy and Alexsandro in the middle of defence, Benjamin Andre and Nabil Bentaleb screening them. Ethan Mbappe, Hakon Haraldsson and Onal behind Ueda. Olivier Giroud is there off the bench if needed.
And the attack has more in it than eight goals suggests. Ueda has been the reference point, Haraldsson drifts inside to link play, and Mbappe gives the side legs on the right. Against a back three that’s conceded seven, the chances will come.
There are two absences to note. Hamza Igamane, the former Rangers striker, is still out with a knee injury. Tanguy Nianzou is a fresh doubt at centre-back. Neither changes the shape of the team.
At home, Lille haven’t lost in the league this season. The only league visitor to take anything from the Pierre-Mauroy was PSG. Le Havre aren’t PSG.
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Le Havre: four goals, two points and a goalkeeping crisis 
Lionel Mpasi ruptured his Achilles against Brest. That’s where Le Havre’s season really started to slide.
The results make for grim reading. A 1-0 home defeat to Monaco on the opening weekend, a creditable 1-1 draw at Lyon, then a 2-1 home loss to Brest. A goalless draw with Angers followed. Then Toulouse, 3-2 away, a game that Le Havre lost despite scoring twice and in which the scoreline arguably flattered them. Four goals in five games. Seven conceded.
The squad is thin right now. Mpasi is out long-term, which means Gallon in goal. Zagadou and Mambimbi are both injured. Timothee Pembele, the former Sunderland full-back, is working back from a groin problem and remains a doubt. That’s a lot of bodies missing for a side that was already short on quality.
The attacking output doesn’t bear close inspection. Le Havre have failed to score in two of their five league games, and they’ve never scored more than once at home. Maja, Samatta and Fofana form the front three, but the supply line behind them has been patchy all season.
There is one thing they can hold on to. Le Havre won 2-1 at Lille in February 2025, and they drew 1-1 at the Pierre-Mauroy last May. They’ve taken points from this ground twice in the last two visits.
That’s history, though. This version of Le Havre is bottom, winless, and travelling without their first-choice keeper. Not a great time to visit.
Probable lineup Lille: Ozer; Santos, Ngoy, Alexsandro, Perraud; Andre, Bentaleb; Mbappe, Haraldsson, Onal; Ueda
Probable lineup Le Havre: Gallon; Sasso, Seko, Touba; Jelert, Ebonog, Richardson, Ouziad; Fofana, Maja, Samatta
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lille vs Le Havre
Our prediction: Lille to win @ 1.48
Lille have conceded four goals in five league games and kept three clean sheets. Le Havre have scored four all season and haven’t won once. Put those two numbers side by side and the gap is obvious.
The Nice defeat and the Arsenal game on the horizon give the hosts something to prove, not something to worry about. At home, with their first-choice back line mostly intact, Lille should control this from the start.
Lille to win at 1.48. The bottom side don’t have the firepower to hurt them.
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