- 1 Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: 17th against 27th, one point apart
- 2 Levski Sofia: 0.80 conceded a game, but only one home win in three
- 3 Jagiellonia Bialystok: three straight wins before Europe, and 1.6 conceded a game
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: 17th against 27th, one point apart 
Levski Sofia have collected 2.14 points a game away from home over their last ten matches, and 1.00 at home. That split is the first thing we looked at for Thursday 5 November, when Julio Velazquez’s side host Jagiellonia Bialystok in Sofia with kick-off at 17:45 UK time.
The league-phase table puts Levski 17th on four points and Jagiellonia 27th on three, so a home win would take Levski to seven from four and open a four-point gap on this opponent.
Both clubs started slowly and recovered part of the ground. Levski lost 1-0 at home to Salzburg, drew 1-1 at NEC Nijmegen, then won 2-1 at Viktoria Plzen on 22 October. Jagiellonia lost 2-1 at Olympiacos, beat Ararat-Armenia 3-1 and then lost 3-0 at home to Anderlecht.
The goal totals point in different directions. Levski have scored three and conceded three in the league phase. Jagiellonia have scored four and conceded six, and they’ve let in at least two goals in each of the two games they’ve lost.
We found no record of a previous meeting between these clubs, so there’s no head-to-head to weigh. Bookmakers have Levski at 1.95, the draw at 3.50 and Jagiellonia at 3.50.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80 and both teams to score at 1.70, which suggests a match the market expects to be open. We’d go a step further and take a side, because Jagiellonia’s defensive figures are the weakest numbers on either team sheet.
Levski Sofia: 0.80 conceded a game, but only one home win in three 
Velazquez’s side have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten in all competitions. They’ve conceded 0.80 goals a game over that spell and kept five clean sheets, which is half of those matches.
Almost all of that defensive record has been built on the road. Away from home they’ve conceded 0.43 a game and kept clean sheets in 57% of their matches. In the three home games in the same sample they’ve let in 1.67 a game.
We read that as a small sample rather than a trend, and the underlying numbers back us up: their expected goals against is 1.17 overall and 1.43 at home, which sits below what they’ve actually allowed in Sofia.
Their own chance creation has outrun their finishing. Levski have scored 1.20 a game from an expected 1.65, and at 1.29 a game they’ve scored more away than the 1.00 they’ve managed at home.
Reinaldo has two European goals this season and should lead the line. Fellow scorer Mota de Castro has one, and Levski’s 4-2-3-1 is expected to have Serginho and Grujic in midfield behind him.
Kirilov (knee), Mitkov and Trdin are all listed as injured, while Hristov, Kamdem and Sangare are off the roster. None of them feature in the expected side.
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Jagiellonia Bialystok: three straight wins before Europe, and 1.6 conceded a game 
Adrian Siemieniec’s side arrive with their form improving. Over their last ten they’ve won four and lost six, with no draws, and the three most recent entries are wins after a run of four straight defeats earlier in that sequence.
They’ve conceded 1.60 goals a game in that period and kept two clean sheets. Their expected goals against is 1.72 overall and 1.91 away from home, the highest defensive figure of any split for either team.
Anderlecht exposed that on 22 October, winning 3-0 at Jagiellonia’s own ground. Olympiacos had already scored twice against them on the opening night.
The attack offers more. Away from home they’ve scored 2.00 a game, and nine different players have scored in Europe this season, with Imaz and Szmyt on two each. Prelec and Sow, also among those scorers, are expected to start in a front three with Szmyt.
Their record on the road is mixed. The last five away games read three defeats followed by two wins, which works out at 1.20 points a game.
Drachal, Polak, Rallis and Zalewski are off the roster, and Wojtuszek is inactive. We’ve seen no fresh injury news on the expected starting eleven.
Probable lineup Levski Sofia: Vutsov; Dimitrov, Aldair, Makoun, Centelles; El Moubarik, Serginho; Grujic, Soula, Bouras; Reinaldo
Probable lineup Jagiellonia Bialystok: Abramowicz; Rodrigo Conceicao, Montoia, Bernardo Vital, Kobayashi; Imaz, Klynge, Romanczuk; Sow, Prelec, Szmyt
Free Europa League Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
Our prediction: Levski Sofia to win @ 1.95
Levski have the better defensive record over ten games, 0.80 conceded against 1.60, and the better league-phase position after their win in Pilsen. Jagiellonia have conceded at least twice in both of their league-phase defeats and carry the higher expected goals against on the road.
We concede that Levski’s home form has been poor in a small sample, and Jagiellonia’s 2.00 goals a game away from home means they’ll create chances. We still hold the pick, because Levski’s one home defeat in this league phase came against Salzburg by a single goal, and Jagiellonia have kept one clean sheet in their last five away games.
At 1.95 we’d back the home win, and we prefer it to over 2.5 goals at 1.80, because Levski’s games over the last ten have averaged only 2.00 goals.
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