- 1 Lens vs Marseille: a 9-1 home defeat on Wednesday, a win in Leverkusen on Thursday
- 2 Lens: three Champions League defeats, 14-1 on aggregate, and a thinning squad
- 3 Marseille: four straight league wins and two clean sheets in a row
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lens vs Marseille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lens vs Marseille: a 9-1 home defeat on Wednesday, a win in Leverkusen on Thursday 
Lens conceded nine goals at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Wednesday night. Como won 9-1 there in the Champions League, the first side to score nine in a single game in the competition, and Ruben Aguilar’s goal was the only one the home crowd had to cheer.
Four days later the same ground hosts Marseille, on Sunday 8 November at 19:45 UK time, and the timing couldn’t be much worse for Yannick Cahuzac. His side had already lost 1-0 at Lille the previous Friday, so another defeat would mean three straight competitive losses for the first time this season.
The table still keeps the two clubs close together. Marseille are sixth with 15 points from nine games, two ahead of ninth-placed Lens, and both have conceded 13 league goals. The difference is at the other end, where Marseille have scored 20 and Lens 16.
Marseille’s week went in the opposite direction. Amine Gouiri scored in the 77th minute at the BayArena on Thursday to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0, their first Europa League win of the season, and that followed a 2-0 home win over Toulouse. Bruno Genesio’s side have now won four league games in a row.
History is the one thing pulling the other way. Lens have won three of their last four home league meetings with Marseille, including a 2-1 comeback win at Bollaert in October 2025, although Marseille won the most recent meeting 3-1 at the Velodrome on 24 January.
The bookmakers still make Lens favourites at 2.10, with Marseille at 2.70 and the draw at 3.70. I think that price leans heavily on home advantage and not enough on what both clubs have just been through.
Lens: three Champions League defeats, 14-1 on aggregate, and a thinning squad 
The Como result didn’t come out of nowhere. Lens beat Slavia Prague in their opening Champions League game and have since lost 2-0 at home to Sporting CP, 3-0 at Club Brugge and 9-1 to Como, which adds up to 14 goals conceded and one scored across three matches.
Ligue 1 has been kinder, though not by much lately. Lens won 3-1 at Troyes on 17 October and beat Paris FC 2-1 at home a week later, before losing 1-0 at Lille on 30 October. Earlier in the campaign they beat Lyon 2-1 at Bollaert, lost 2-1 in Monaco and drew 2-2 at Le Mans.
Home form has slipped alongside the European results. Across their last five home games in all competitions Lens have won two and lost three, scoring five and conceding 14. Nine of their 16 league goals have come at Bollaert, so the attack still functions there, but the defence has been badly exposed.
The injury list doesn’t help Cahuzac fix that. Nawrocki is out with a cruciate ligament injury, Ganiou has a knee problem and Sima a thigh injury, while Edouard, sidelined after surgery at the end of October, is listed as doubtful at best. Chavez has also been missing with a sore thigh.
Florian Thauvin carries most of the creative load, with four goals this season and three goal involvements in Lens’ last two league home games. Cahuzac, promoted from assistant after Dino Toppmöller’s departure early in the season, has 96 hours to lift a dressing room that has just conceded nine at home, and the French press has already started questioning his position.
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Marseille: four straight league wins and two clean sheets in a row 
Marseille’s league run began in Angers on 18 October with a 5-2 win. A 4-3 home win over Le Havre followed, then the 2-0 against Toulouse on 1 November, with Gouiri and Amine Harit scoring. The only blot in that spell was a 1-0 Europa League defeat at Sturm Graz on 22 October.
Leverkusen was the more revealing result. Marseille arrived at the BayArena with no points from three Europa League games and left with a 1-0 win, their first away win in the competition since 2023, and they did it without conceding for a second game in a row.
Gouiri leads their scoring with six goals this season and has scored in back-to-back matches, and Marseille average 2.2 league goals a game, the second-highest rate in Ligue 1, with 55.7% of the ball.
Away from the Velodrome the numbers hold up too. Marseille have won three of their last four competitive away games and scored seven goals in their last two league trips, 5-2 at Angers and 2-0 at Troyes. The 1-0 defeat at Rennes earlier in the season is the reminder that they can be kept quiet on the road.
Genesio does have fitness questions to answer. Cornelius is out with a hip problem, Emerson Palmieri is doubtful with a knee injury, Keyliane Abdallah has a knock and Harit limped off last weekend. With a Thursday night in Germany behind them, some rotation is expected, and that’s the strongest argument against backing them here.
Probable lineup Lens: Risser; Aguilar, Baidoo, Antonio; Abdulhamid, Bulatovic, Cuisance, Udol; Thauvin, Sotoca; Hazard
Probable lineup Marseille: De Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Garcia; Hojbjerg, Nnadi, Abdelli; Mmadi, Gouiri, Paixao
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lens vs Marseille
Our prediction: Marseille to win (2.70)
Lens have lost their last two games and conceded ten goals doing it, and they go into Sunday without Nawrocki, Ganiou and Sima. Marseille have won five of their last six matches in all competitions, kept two straight clean sheets and have the league’s second most productive attack, led by a striker who has scored in consecutive games.
The case for Lens rests on Bollaert and on recent meetings, three home wins in four against Marseille, and Genesio may rotate after Leverkusen. I take that seriously, but a home side that has conceded 14 in its last five games at that ground is a weak foundation for a 2.10 favourite.
At 2.70, Marseille are the bet. Their league form is the stronger of the two by some distance, and a week like the one Lens have just had rarely ends with a clean recovery four days later.
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