- 1 Le Mans vs Toulouse : two leaky defences, one Friday night, plenty of goals in sight
- 2 Le Mans: unbeaten at home for over a year, but six points dropped from winning positions
- 3 Toulouse: unbeaten away from home, and a habit of coming from behind
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Mans vs Toulouse
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Le Mans vs Toulouse : two leaky defences, one Friday night, plenty of goals in sight 
Every one of Le Mans’ six Ligue 1 games this season has seen both teams score. Every single one. That’s the first thing to know before Friday’s meeting with Toulouse at the Stade Marie-Marvingt, kick-off 20:45 Paris time.
It’s also the first time these two clubs have met in the French top flight in more than 16 years. Le Mans are newly promoted, Toulouse are trying to find some stability, and the table puts them right next to each other: Le Mans 14th, Toulouse 15th, separated only by goal difference.
Both sides have something to prove. Le Mans rather more than Toulouse, perhaps, since they’re still working out how to close games in this division.
The recent results tell a similar story for both clubs. Le Mans went down 3-1 at Paris Saint-Germain last weekend, a result nobody will hold against them. Toulouse came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Monaco, which says a lot about their character, and a fair amount about their defending too.
History favours the visitors. Toulouse have won their last four top-flight meetings with Le Mans, the most recent a 3-1 away win back in 2010. Le Mans last beat them at home in December 2006. That’s a long time ago, and neither squad bears any resemblance to those teams.
What really matters is how these two sides play right now. And right now, both are open, aggressive and far from airtight. Can either of them keep a clean sheet on Friday? Recent evidence says no.
Le Mans: unbeaten at home for over a year, but six points dropped from winning positions 
Here’s a stat that Patrick Videira can be proud of. Le Mans haven’t lost a home game in Ligue 1 or Ligue 2 for more than a year. Their last home defeat came against Rodez in September 2025.
The flip side is less comfortable. This side has dropped six points from leading positions in the second half of games this season. They get in front, then can’t see it out. That’s a problem they haven’t solved yet.
Discipline doesn’t help. Le Mans have conceded three penalties, more than any other side in the league, and they also top the charts for cautions with 14. Give away that many free shots at goal and you’ll always be vulnerable late on.
Look at the scorelines: 2-2 with Brest, 3-2 lost at Rennes, 1-1 at Nice, 2-2 with Lens, a 2-1 win over Lorient and the 3-1 loss at PSG. Both teams scored in all six. You can dress it up however you want, but that’s a defence that concedes every week.
Going forward, Louis Mafouta carries the threat. He scored his fourth league goal of the season at PSG, briefly levelling the game, and he’s the side’s top scorer. Djibril Sidibe, a former Toulouse defender, is available again after suspension.
There are some doubts in the squad. Adil Bourabaa has an ankle problem, Martin Rossignol is struggling with a knee injury and Erwan Colas has back pain. None of those are guaranteed to miss out, but none are guaranteed to play either.
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Toulouse: unbeaten away from home, and a habit of coming from behind 
Toulouse don’t make life easy for themselves. In two of their last three league games, they conceded first and still came back for a point. Saturday’s comeback at Monaco, where they were 2-0 down to the league leaders, was the most striking example.
The away record is the encouraging part for Jens Berthel Askou. Toulouse haven’t lost on the road this season: 2-2 at Brest, 2-2 at Lorient, 2-2 at Monaco. Three trips, three draws, six goals scored and six conceded. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a profile.
Askou is still waiting for his first Ligue 1 away win as head coach, though. Draws are nice. Wins are what this side needs.
The attacking numbers are better than the table suggests. Toulouse rank third in the league for touches in the opposition box, but they’re also fifth for big chances missed, with 14. They create plenty. They just aren’t clinical enough yet.
Casper Tengstedt scored a penalty in Monaco, and Sion Oppong grabbed his first goal of the campaign to complete the comeback. Aron Donnum is back from suspension, which gives Askou more options in midfield.
The home defeats are the worry. Toulouse lost 2-0 to Lyon and 1-0 to Lille at home, and they’ve won just once in six league games, 3-2 against Le Havre. On the road, they’ve been better than at their own ground. Odd, but true.
On the injury front, Abu Francis is doubtful with a sore hamstring and Rasmus Nicolaisen is carrying a knock. A win or a draw here would also see Toulouse equal their longest unbeaten domestic run of the year.
Probable lineup Le Mans: Kocik; Boisse, Sidibe, Voyer; Lauray; Gueye, Bretelle, Vercruysse, Caldodat; Diallo, Mafouta
Probable lineup Toulouse: Restes; Messali, Koumbassa, McKenzie, Tape; Casseres, Donnum; Tengstedt, Jorgensen, Oppong; Russell-Rowe
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Mans vs Toulouse
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Both teams have scored in all six of Le Mans’ Ligue 1 games this season, and in four of Toulouse’s six. Toulouse’s three away games all finished 2-2. The pattern on both sides is hard to ignore.
Le Mans concede penalties and drop leads late. Toulouse create a lot in the box and come back from deficits. Neither side has shown it can shut a game down, which is exactly why this pick makes sense.
Picking a winner here is a coin flip, with Le Mans strong at home and Toulouse unbeaten on the road. Goals at both ends, though, are what both teams have delivered week after week. We’re backing that trend to continue on Friday night.
in your pocket.
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