- 1 Lazio vs AC Milan: two unbeaten sides, only one will stay top of the table
- 2 Lazio keep winning, even as the squad gets smaller
- 3 Amorim’s Milan score everywhere, but they wobble late
- 4 Serie A prediction Lazio vs AC Milan
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Lazio vs AC Milan: two unbeaten sides, only one will stay top of the table 
Lazio have won their first three Serie A games while conceding just one goal. No other team in Italy’s top four has been that stingy after three rounds.
AC Milan sit one point behind with two wins and a draw. Five goals scored, two conceded: the attack is doing its job, the defence is a step off the pace.
Kick-off is set for Saturday, September 12 at 18:00 local time at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Third against fourth, with top spot in the crosshairs for the winner.
Ruben Amorim is into his first season in Italy under unusual circumstances. Sacked by Manchester United in January 2026, the Portuguese coach was hired by Milan last June.
Maurizio Sarri, meanwhile, is working with a squad stripped to the bone. Five players are out, and the Rome club have not played a single European match this season after missing out on qualification.
That matters. Neither side has had a midweek game, and Milan only enter the Europa League three days after this one.
There is one more angle in Lazio’s favour: they have won their last two meetings with Milan. The bookmakers don’t seem bothered, though, and still make the Rossoneri favourites.
The market has Milan as the stronger side. A Milan win is priced around 2.25, with Lazio at roughly 3.23.
Goals are also attracting attention. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.65, a price that points to the expectation of an open game.
Sarri barely added to his squad in the summer and spent the break plugging holes. Amorim is getting to know Italian football with a reshaped team and instant pressure.
Lazio keep winning, even as the squad gets smaller 
Nine points from nine, four goals scored, one conceded. Lazio’s start to the season is as clean as it gets.
That single goal against is the best defensive record among Serie A’s top four. Sarri has built that base without any major summer reinforcement.
The flip side is a squad that’s unusually thin for a club of this size. Every extra absence strips away more of the manager’s options.
Alessio Furlanetto is out long term after knee ligament surgery. Adam Marusic, Danilo Cataldi, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Nicolò Rovella are also in the Rome treatment room.
Losing Rovella and Cataldi at the same time leaves Sarri without two central midfield runners. That is exactly the area where Milan have the most depth.
Even so, Lazio are still scoring at more than a goal a game without breaking stride. Saturday’s issue is less about their attack and more about whether the team can physically hold up.
This perfect start has come without any European matches clogging the calendar. Lazio did not qualify for continental competition, so they have a full week to prepare for each game.
Luca Pellegrini and Patric are also listed among the absentees ahead of the match. The injury list keeps growing, and rotation is now a luxury Sarri can barely afford.
One final point leans Lazio’s way: they have beaten Milan in their last two meetings. The Olimpico is no neutral venue for the Rossoneri.
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Amorim’s Milan score everywhere, but they wobble late 
Seven points from three games, two wins and a draw: Amorim’s start in Serie A has been solid enough. The Rossoneri are still unbeaten and sit fourth.
Milan have scored in every game so far. Five goals in three matches is one more than Lazio over the same stretch.
The third round did leave a sour taste, though. In Turin on September 6, Alphadjo Cisse put Milan ahead before Federico Gatti levelled it in the 91st minute.
Taking a point away from Juventus is no disaster. Dropping it in stoppage time, however, raises questions about how Milan are seeing games out.
Christian Pulisic has started recent matches on the bench rather than in the XI. His status in Rome had not been confirmed by any source at the time of writing.
Milan have conceded twice as many goals as their hosts so far this season. That is the one stat that clearly tilts against the visitors.
Amorim was dismissed by Manchester United in January 2026 before landing at Milan five months later. His first spell in Italy begins with a confidence gap to fill.
The calendar gives him room to breathe this week. Milan only enter the Europa League three days after this trip to Rome, with no European match beforehand.
That freshness is a real factor against a Lazio side whose squad depth is fading fast. This could be decided in the final 20 minutes just as much as in the first half.
Probable Lazio line-up: Not confirmed at time of publication.
Probable AC Milan line-up: Not confirmed at time of publication.
Serie A prediction Lazio vs AC Milan
Our pick: AC Milan to win
Five Lazio absentees, including two central midfielders, against a Milan side that has had a full week to prepare. That is where this match is likely to be decided, not in the league table.
The Rossoneri have scored in all three games and come into this off a strong away point at Juventus. They arrive in Rome with no European miles in the legs.
The bookies have Milan around 2.25 for the win, with Lazio near 3.23. We are backing AC Milan at the Olimpico.
Over 2.5 goals, priced at 1.65, is the alternative for anyone who does not want to pick a side. Milan have scored in every league game and Lazio are averaging more than a goal a match.
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