- 1 Juventus vs Rennes: two bruised sides meet with the Europa League table leaders at home
- 2 Juventus: four straight clean sheets at home in Europe, despite a long injury list
- 3 Rennes: Ligue 1’s joint-highest scorers, but one away win all season
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Juventus vs Rennes
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Juventus vs Rennes: two bruised sides meet with the Europa League table leaders at home 
Esteban Lepaul scored three penalties at the Stade Jean-Bouin on Saturday, in the 29th, 74th and 88th minutes, and Rennes still lost 4-3 to Paris FC. Lassine Sinayoko won it with a penalty of his own in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Juventus had a worse weekend. Lazio won 3-0 at the Allianz Stadium, with goals from Oliver Provstgaard, Gustav Isaksen and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, and Luciano Spalletti was serving a Serie A ban after his dismissal at Cagliari. That suspension doesn’t apply in Europe.
Thursday’s game in Turin kicks off at 5.45pm UK time, and the European table puts things in a kinder light for the home side. Juventus top it with six points from two games, after a 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen and a 2-1 win at Celta Vigo settled by Randal Kolo Muani in the third minute of stoppage time.
Rennes have four points. They drew 0-0 at Sturm Graz in September despite 23 shots, then needed a 92nd-minute winner from Abdelhamid Ait-Boudlal to beat OFI Crete 2-1 last Thursday. That was Franck Haise’s first Europa League win at the 18th attempt.
The prices reflect the gap: Juventus are 1.53 to win, the draw is 4.00 and Rennes are out at 5.25.
As far as the records show, the clubs have never met in a competitive game.
Both play league games three days later, so some rotation is likely on both sides. I still think the gap in quality between these two squads is wide enough to survive it.
Juventus: four straight clean sheets at home in Europe, despite a long injury list 
Juventus have won their last four home games in European competition without conceding. Across their last ten matches they’ve let in 0.7 goals a game, and at home that drops to 0.33.
That’s why the Lazio result stands out. Before Saturday their only Serie A defeat was 3-2 at Sassuolo, and they sit on 11 points from seven league games after drawing 1-1 at Cagliari on 11 October.
The injury list is long. Kenan Yildiz has been out since late August with a foot problem, and Manuel Locatelli, Khephren Thuram, Jeremie Boga, Emmanuel Ekhator and Grabara are all missing. Juan Cabal is a doubt with a thigh problem, and Edon Zhegrova, who scored twice at Sassuolo, isn’t on the Europa League squad list.
The European goals have come from all over the pitch. Nico Gonzalez, Kerim Alajbegovic, Nick Woltemade, Zeki Celik and Kolo Muani all scored against NEC, and Woltemade, on loan from Newcastle, opened the scoring at Celta before Kolo Muani’s late winner.
Against Lazio Spalletti picked Vicario; Celik, Lucumi, Bremer, Kalulu; Sarr, Douglas Luiz; Alajbegovic, McKennie, Gonzalez; Kolo Muani. Woltemade is the obvious change up front if he wants to freshen it, and Spalletti will be back on the touchline after missing Saturday’s game.
Over their last ten matches Juventus have scored 1.8 goals a game, and 2.0 at home.
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Rennes: Ligue 1’s joint-highest scorers, but one away win all season 
Rennes went into the weekend averaging two league goals a game, level with the best attack in Ligue 1, and fourth on 13 points. They’re still on 13 after Saturday’s defeat.
Roazhon Park is where they’ve done most of it. Rennes drew 2-2 with PSG, beat Le Mans 3-2 and Marseille 1-0, thrashed Auxerre 4-1 on 11 October with two goals from Lepaul and then beat OFI.
The road is a different matter. Apart from a 2-1 win at Angers, their away record this season reads 0-0 at Sturm Graz, 4-0 defeat at Lyon and 4-3 defeat at Paris FC. Across their last ten matches they’ve won 20% of their away games and failed to score in 60% of them.
Lepaul is the man Juventus have to deal with. He has a hat-trick and a brace in his last two league games, and he’s been linked with several Premier League clubs.
Haise has few absences to worry about, and no suspensions from Saturday’s defeat. Quentin Merlin has been left out since the Lyon defeat, and Eliezer Mayenda, signed from Sunderland in the summer, offers another option up front.
The expected side has Samba in goal behind Reynolds, Cresswell, Ait-Boudlal and Nagida, with Rongier holding and Camara and Thomasson either side of him. Mahamadou Nagida scored the equaliser against OFI and his shot led to the winner, which Ait-Boudlal turned in from the rebound. Al-Tamari and Soumare are expected either side of Lepaul in attack.
Probable lineup Juventus: Vicario; Kalulu, Bremer, Lucumi, Celik; Sarr, Douglas Luiz; Alajbegovic, McKennie, N. Gonzalez; Kolo Muani
Probable lineup Rennes: Samba; Reynolds, Cresswell, Ait-Boudlal, Nagida; Rongier; Camara, Thomasson; Al-Tamari, Lepaul, Soumare
Free Europa League Prediction: Juventus vs Rennes
Our prediction: Juventus to win
I’d back Juventus. They’ve kept four straight clean sheets at home in Europe, they’ve won both Europa League games so far, and Rennes have won once away from home all season.
The Lazio defeat is the reason this price isn’t shorter, and Juventus are missing Yildiz, Locatelli and Thuram. But Rennes conceded four at both Lyon and Paris FC, and Lepaul’s three goals on Saturday all came from the spot.
Juventus to win at 1.53 is the pick. I’d expect Spalletti’s side to react to Saturday, and Rennes haven’t shown me they can defend for 90 minutes away from Roazhon Park.
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