- 1 Japan vs France: Les Bleus must be ready for the pace in Tokyo
- 2 Japan want to rattle another major nation
- 3 France found their spark in Australia
- 4 Probable line-ups:
- 5 Nations Championship pick: Japan vs France
- 6 First, a word on our picks
- 7 No commitment from us
- 8 Information changes
- 9 Your role
- 10 Responsible gambling first
- 11 Legal age
- 12 About the visuals
Japan vs France: Les Bleus must be ready for the pace in Tokyo 
France continue their Southern Hemisphere tour with a trip to Tokyo that looks manageable on paper, but could turn awkward fast. Les Bleus have already responded in Australia after their narrow loss to New Zealand. Japan, meanwhile, have made it clear they are not here just to make up the numbers in this Nations Championship.
The Brave Blossoms started by beating Italy 27-10, then pushed Ireland for most of the next match. The final 36-20 scoreline does not tell the full story, because Japan only faded in the closing minutes. Against a France side still finding its feet, they have every reason to believe this could be another tight one.
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Japan want to rattle another major nation 
Japan’s start to the tournament has been anything but minor. After several rough months and five straight defeats before the competition, Eddie Jones’s players have found some confidence at exactly the right time. Their win over Italy was never in doubt, and their display against Ireland backed up the progress they have made.
As ever, Japan will look to move the ball at speed. The aim will be to avoid long, physical arm-wrestles up front, where the French pack holds a clear edge. Warner Dearns, Harry Hockings and Ben Gunter carry the burden of keeping the early phases secure so the backs can attack the wide channels quickly.
Home support at the National Olympic Stadium could matter too. Japan have never beaten France, but they did manage to hold Les Bleus to a draw back in 2017. They are not walking in blind here, especially against a French squad that is still being rotated.
France found their spark in Australia 
Les Bleus left Christchurch full of frustration after a two-point defeat to the All Blacks, 34-32. In Brisbane, it was again a messy first half. Nine points down at the break, France completely changed gear after the restart, scored four tries and won 42-26.
That response moved Fabien Galthie’s men up to second place in the Northern Hemisphere standings. It also showed this squad has enough depth to get the job done even with rotation. Alexandre Roumat, Jefferson Poirot, Regis Montagne and Maxime Lamothe are among the forwards drafted in for this one.
Behind them, the head coach has kept the same structure. Maxime Lucu remains captain and will run the show with Romain Ntamack, while Matthieu Jalibert is set to line up again at full-back. France’s power should tell in the end, especially at scrum time and on the driving maul. The question is how long it takes them to wrest control.
Probable line-ups:
Japan: Ishida – Tua, Riley, Nakamura, Matsunaga – Lee, Saito – Gunter, Leitch, Cornelsen – Dearns, Hockings – Takeuchi, Sakate, Kinoshita.
France: Jalibert – Attissogbe, Brau-Boirie, Moefana, Grandier-Nkanang – Ntamack, Lucu – Roumat, Gazzotti, Nouchi – Meafou, Verhaeghe – Montagne, Lamothe, Poirot.
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Nations Championship pick: Japan vs France
Japan either win or lose by 22 points or fewer
France have more power, more depth and more experience across the board. A Les Bleus win is still the most likely outcome. Even so, the line looks heavy given what Japan have shown in this tournament so far.
Japan held Italy to 10 and stayed in the fight against Ireland until the end. Their ability to speed up the game and string together long spells of possession could force the French defence to do plenty of chasing. In a match played in Tokyo, the Brave Blossoms should also feed off the energy from the crowd.
Les Bleus have already shown they can go flat, both against New Zealand and in the first half against Australia. With several changes in the pack and another trip to manage, they are not immune to a slow start. France may take over in the final third of the match without necessarily opening up a gap bigger than three converted tries.
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