- 1 Israel vs Republic of Ireland: one shot on target each on matchday one
- 2 Israel Analysis
- 3 Republic of Ireland Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Israel vs Republic of Ireland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Israel vs Republic of Ireland: one shot on target each on matchday one 
One shot on target each: that was the offensive return of Israel and the Republic of Ireland on Nations League matchday one. Both lost, and both now meet on Sunday 27 September at 20h45 Paris time at the Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen.
The venue is neutral and the stands will be empty. Israel host their home fixtures away from Israel for security reasons, and this game in Hungary is being played behind closed doors.
Off the pitch, the context is heavy: widespread calls in Ireland to boycott both games against Israel were turned down by the FAI, with UEFA insisting all fixtures must be played. Ireland’s own home leg against Israel will be staged behind closed doors in Serbia next week.
The table sets the stakes. Austria and Kosovo lead League B Group 3 after winning on Thursday, and a second defeat for either side here would leave them already chasing the top two.
Finishing first or second in the group carries a concrete reward, a guaranteed place in pot two for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw in December. Ireland, partial co-hosts of that tournament, have a direct interest in that seeding.
History points towards a tight contest. Three of the five previous meetings between these nations ended level, including both 2005 World Cup qualifiers, 1-1 in Ramat Gan and 2-2 in Dublin.
The market reflects that uncertainty, with Ireland at 7/5 and Israel at 9/5 with bet365. That gap is too small to call either side a clear favourite.
Given the attacking data from Thursday and the key absentees on both sides, the most readable market here is not the winner, but the number of teams that find the net.
Israel Analysis 
Israel lost 3-1 to Austria in Linz on Thursday. Sayed Abu Farkhi equalised shortly after half-time before two late Austrian goals decided it.
The score stayed level from that equaliser until the closing stages. Keeping the game tight for as long as possible is the realistic plan for Ran Ben Shimon in Debrecen.
Abu Farkhi was then sent off, and his suspension removes Israel’s only scorer of the campaign. Dor Turgeman or Tai Baribo, both playing their club football in MLS, are the candidates to replace him up front.
The defensive options are also reduced. Stav Lemkin, Itay Rotman and Or Blorian all missed this camp through injury, forcing Ben Shimon to reshape his back line.
The longer-term data is not encouraging for Israel. They sit 76th in the FIFA rankings, finished behind Norway and Italy in World Cup qualifying, and were relegated from the previous Nations League edition with one win from six.
With one shot on target in Linz and their scorer suspended, Israel’s attacking ceiling in Debrecen is low. Solomon and Gloukh remain the creative references in the probable eleven.
That relegation means this group is Israel’s chance to rebuild credibility at League B level. A draw against Ireland would already be a measurable improvement on the previous campaign’s return of one win from six.
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Republic of Ireland Analysis 
Ireland’s defeat in Pristina was decided by Vedat Muriqi in the 83rd minute, and it followed a familiar pattern. The Boys in Green registered just one shot on target across the whole match.
The historical data confirms the issue. Ireland have never won their opening fixture in any Nations League edition and average only 0.7 goals per game in the competition.
The absentee list is significant for Heimir Hallgrimsson. Captain Nathan Collins is out with a calf injury, and Evan Ferguson, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor, Mikey Johnston and Jamie McGrath are also unavailable.
Former captain Seamus Coleman was left out while he remains without a club. Most of the senior players missing from the experimental summer squad have returned, so the group is stronger on paper than the absentee list suggests.
The main attacking reference is Troy Parrott, now at Real Betis. Own goals aside, he has scored Ireland’s last six goals in competitive matches, and he scored a hat-trick on his previous trip to Hungary.
In Pristina, Kosovo spent most of the match attacking the Irish area and only broke through late. That resistance shows Ireland can keep a game low-scoring even when they are second best.
Dependence on a single scorer is the decisive point for this match. Ireland have tightened up with a five-man defence, but their route to goal runs almost entirely through Parrott.
Probable lineup Israel: Da. Peretz; Dasa, Nachmias, Shlomo, Revivo; E. Peretz, Do. Peretz; Khalaily, Gloukh, Solomon; Turgeman
Probable lineup Republic of Ireland: Kelleher; O’Brien, Abankwah, Egan, O’Shea, Manning; Molumby, Knight; Azaz, Ogbene; Parrott
Free Football Prediction: Israel vs Republic of Ireland
Our prediction: Both teams to score: No
The central data point is the attacking output from matchday one: one shot on target for Israel in Linz, one for Ireland in Pristina. Israel are also without Abu Farkhi, their only scorer, and Ireland without Evan Ferguson.
Head-to-head history and context point the same way, with three draws in five meetings and a closed-doors game on neutral ground. Neither side can count on home momentum to lift its attack.
Behind closed doors, without crowd pressure on either side, the tempo is likely to stay low. Both teams need a first point, and fear of a second defeat usually translates into caution.
On this basis, the most likely outcome is at least one blank scoresheet. Both teams to score: No is priced at 11/10 (2.10) with the top bookmakers, and that is our pick.
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