- 1 Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets: the league’s top net rating against a road team fresh from Mexico City
- 2 Houston Rockets: 122.6 offensive rating, 22 turnovers on Wednesday and two centers hurt
- 3 Denver Nuggets: a 25th-ranked defense and Jokic’s triple-double in three quarters
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets: the league’s top net rating against a road team fresh from Mexico City 
Denver plays Indiana at Arena CDMX in Mexico City at 5:00pm ET on Saturday. Roughly 51 hours later it tips off at Toyota Center, on Monday 9 November at 8:30pm ET, against the team that went into this week with the best net rating in the NBA.
That rating was +13.2 through Houston’s first eight games, built on a league-leading offensive rating of 122.6 and a defense that ranked eighth at 109.4. The Rockets are 7-2 and third in the West, and their one bad night at home came on Wednesday, a 117-107 loss to Minnesota.
Houston committed 22 turnovers in that game, and they turned into 33 Minnesota points. Kevin Durant scored 21, Alperen Sengun had a 17-12-10 triple-double, and the Timberwolves still won the fourth quarter 35-23 to end the Rockets’ unbeaten home run.
Denver is 4-3 and ninth in the West after a 128-109 win over Toronto on Wednesday. It’s the same team that beat Houston three times in four meetings last season, including 112-109 at Toyota Center on 21 November 2025 and 129-93 in Denver on 11 March.
Monday is the first meeting of this season. Each team has one day off beforehand, since Houston is in Phoenix on Saturday night, but only one of them will be coming back from another country. No line had been posted at the time of writing.
Houston Rockets: 122.6 offensive rating, 22 turnovers on Wednesday and two centers hurt 
Sengun leads this team in points, rebounds and assists among its regulars. He went into Wednesday averaging 23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists, and Durant was next at 20.8. Jabari Smith Jr. adds 18.4 points and 6.4 rebounds, and Amen Thompson 16.0.
The depth is what separates Houston from most of the West. Smith scored 30 and Marcus Smart hit seven threes on his way to 24 in a 119-98 win over Oklahoma City on 31 October. Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard both average at least 10 points as well, which gives Houston eight players in double figures.
Defensively the Rockets have held their last five opponents to an average of 104.8 points, with Boston scoring 93 and Milwaukee 100. They allow 107.6 a game for the season against 117.9 scored, a margin of 10.3 that reflects a slow game: Houston ranked 25th in pace at 97.2.
Injuries have thinned the frontcourt. Clint Capela’s right ankle has him out through at least Saturday, and Steven Adams is listed out through at least Monday with a calf problem. Fred VanVleet sat out on 2 November under an injury management protocol, but he was back on Wednesday and averages 12.2 points and 6.8 assists.
That shortage matters against Jokic, and it puts more of the job on Sengun, who’d rather be spending his energy on offense. The Rockets went 1-3 against Denver last season, and their one win, 115-101 in Denver on 20 December, came when they kept the Nuggets near 100 points.
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Denver Nuggets: a 25th-ranked defense and Jokic’s triple-double in three quarters 
Jokic needed three quarters to put up 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists against Toronto on Wednesday. Jamal Murray had 14 points and seven assists, and Denver’s bench added 42 as the team shot 62%.
Murray has been the scorer this season, averaging 27.3 points going into that game to Jokic’s 22.0, with Jokic at 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists. Christian Braun is at 15.2 and scored a career-high 31 on 7-of-9 from three in a 127-120 win in Phoenix on 30 October.
The defense is a different matter. Through six games Denver ranked 25th in defensive rating at 117.5, and the Nuggets allow 114.7 points a game even after holding Toronto to 109. Golden State scored 134 at Ball Arena on 26 October, and Portland won there 118-110 a week later.
Wednesday’s win came with a late scratch, because DeMar DeRozan’s back spasms kept him out and he’s listed through at least Saturday. Spencer Jones has a hamstring problem until at least 11 November, and Julian Strawther is out through at least 29 November with a knee injury. Without them, Denver’s second unit has fewer scoring options than it showed against Toronto.
Denver ranked 27th in pace at 96.7, which suits a game with Houston, and it has won on the road this season in New Orleans and Phoenix. Neither of those teams resembles the Rockets, and Mexico City on Saturday means the Nuggets will be on their second flight in three days before they see the Toyota Center floor.
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Denver Nuggets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win
The gap between these teams this season is defensive. Houston’s rating of 109.4 ranks eighth, and Denver’s 117.5 ranks 25th. Add a net rating of +13.2 against Denver’s -2.4 and the Rockets have the stronger case on nearly everything measured so far, along with a home floor and the shorter trip.
We’re not ignoring last season’s 3-1 series or the fact that Houston’s center rotation may be short against the best passer at the position. Jokic could easily post another triple-double, and 22 turnovers against Minnesota shows that the Rockets can give games away.
That game looks like an exception, because the same offense ranked first in the league before it. We’d rather back that group at home than a Denver team coming off an international trip with DeRozan’s back still in question. Check Capela and Adams on Monday afternoon, and confirm the price clears our 1.45 floor.
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