- 1 Houston Rockets vs Boston Celtics: an unbeaten Rockets team against the Celtics’ third game in four nights
- 2 Houston Rockets: 51.7% from the field, and depth that has covered for Sengun and Smart
- 3 Boston Celtics: Tatum at 28.0 points, but three wins at home and a defeat on the road
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Boston Celtics
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Houston Rockets vs Boston Celtics: an unbeaten Rockets team against the Celtics’ third game in four nights 
Fred VanVleet missed all of last season with a torn ACL. In Milwaukee on Wednesday he scored 24 points, Amen Thompson added 23 and Houston won 132-100, a fifth straight win to open the season. The Rockets shot 54.8% that night and made 17 of 38 threes without Alperen Sengun or Marcus Smart in uniform.
That last detail is what makes Houston’s start worth taking seriously. The Rockets went into Friday’s game in Dallas at 5-0, first in the Western Conference, and they’ve done it while rotating injured players in and out. They beat Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta twice and Milwaukee, and three of those wins came on the road.
Boston visits Toyota Center on Monday 2 November, tip-off 8:30pm ET. The Celtics were 3-1 before Friday’s home game against Chicago, but the schedule around this trip is heavy. They play the Bulls on Friday, fly to Orlando for a 3:30pm ET game on Sunday and then go on to Houston, which makes Monday the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights.
Houston plays Oklahoma City at home on Saturday and then has Sunday off. That’s one day of rest against none, and it lands on a Boston team whose only defeat so far came on the road, 121-113 at Detroit on opening night after leading by 22.
The two teams split last season’s series. Houston won 128-101 in Boston on 1 November 2025, and the Celtics won 114-93 in Houston in February. Boston has changed a lot since, with Jaylen Brown traded to Philadelphia for Paul George in July, and the second meeting this season isn’t until 11 January.
Houston Rockets: 51.7% from the field, and depth that has covered for Sengun and Smart 
Houston’s offense is scoring 123.0 points per game, third in the league, on 51.7% shooting and 40.4% from three. It’s also assisting on 28.5 baskets a game. Those numbers came with Sengun playing four of five games and Smart missing three straight with a forearm strain, which points to how deep Ime Udoka’s rotation runs.
Sengun leads the team at 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists on 58.1% shooting. He has a mild lower-back strain and was questionable for Friday, but Udoka said it would cost him a few games at most. If he’s back by Monday, Houston gets its main playmaker against a Boston frontcourt built around Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta.
Kevin Durant, at 38, has played all five games and averages 22.4 points and 6.2 rebounds while taking a smaller share of the offense than at any point in his career. Amen Thompson adds 18.2 points and 8.0 rebounds, and Jabari Smith Jr. 16.2. That spread of scoring is why the Rockets haven’t dropped a game while their starting lineup has changed from night to night.
The defense holds up as well. Houston allows 108.8 points per game and forces around 10 steals a night, and no opponent has scored more than 114 against it. Steven Adams is out with a calf injury and Reed Sheppard with a back problem, though both were projected to return around this game.
One thing to watch is the Saturday game against Oklahoma City. Houston plays Dallas on Friday and the Thunder at Toyota Center on Saturday, so it also has a back-to-back this weekend, but Sunday is free and Boston won’t get that day.
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Boston Celtics: Tatum at 28.0 points, but three wins at home and a defeat on the road 
Jayson Tatum scored 40 points against Brooklyn on Tuesday, went 18-of-22 from the free-throw line and hit the jumper at the overtime buzzer that won it 125-124. He’s averaging 28.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists through four games, with Jaylen Brown now playing in Philadelphia.
Paul George has slotted in as the second scorer at 22.3 points per game. He had 20 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in the Brooklyn game. Payton Pritchard adds 13.3 points off the bench and Derrick White 12.5 points with 6.3 assists, so Joe Mazzulla’s team still has the shooting that defined it last season, with 38.6% from three and 16 made threes per game early on.
Look at where the wins came from, though. All three were at TD Garden, against New York, Chicago and Brooklyn, and the Nets game needed overtime against a team that was 0-3 at the time. The one road game, in Detroit, ended in a defeat after Boston had led by 22. The Celtics also turn it over 16.0 times per game.
Devin Carter is out with an illness reported as mononucleosis, with return estimates ranging from 7 or 8 November to indefinitely. The rest of the rotation is healthy, which matters for a back-to-back but doesn’t change the travel: Boston to Orlando to Houston across Sunday and Monday.
The Celtics play the Orlando game at 3:30pm ET, which gives them a little more time to fly than a night game would. It’s still a second game in roughly 29 hours, against a Houston team that will have slept in its own beds.
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun (if fit; Tari Eason started without him in Milwaukee)
Probable lineup Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jordan Walsh, Jayson Tatum, Paul George, Mitchell Robinson
Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Boston Celtics
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win by 5 points or more (handicap -4.5)
The only price available at the time of writing was a moneyline around 1.43 on Houston, which is too short to take, so the handicap is where the value is. No spread had been posted for Monday yet, and I’d want -4.5 or shorter.
The case is mostly about legs and shooting. Houston has made 51.7% of its shots and allowed 108.8 points a game, and it’ll have a day of rest. Boston plays its second game in about 29 hours after a trip through Orlando, and its only road game so far ended in a defeat in Detroit.
Tatum is the reason not to go bigger on the spread: a 40-point night can close any gap. But the Rockets have won five straight with different players out each night, and their 132-100 win in Milwaukee came without Sengun or Smart.
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