Astros – Milwaukee: Riding the wave at home 
The Astros are back at their own ballpark full of confidence after a sharp road run in Arlington. They took three of four there and showed real progress on the mound. Milwaukee still sit top of their division and own the better overall record, but our read goes more with Houston’s current form. The home side have found a groove, and Kai-Wei Teng gives them a real edge on the hill against a dangerous opponent.
The Astros are rolling 
The Astros are 26-32, but that record does not tell the full story. They have won nine of their last 13 and have allowed just 13 runs across those wins. Last night they cruised to a 5-1 victory, sparked by an early Jeremy Pena homer in a one-sided first inning. Even with a few injuries hanging around the roster, the Astros look like a different outfit now: the bats are jumping early to back the pitching, and the bullpen slammed the door in the last game without breaking a sweat.
Milwaukee arrive with plenty of belief
The visitors have put together a strong season at 33-20, posting excellent numbers on the road and scoring close to five runs a game. Their mix of speed, patience and depth makes them a nasty side to face, and their rotation has generally been more reliable than Houston’s since Opening Day. Still, this should not be a one-way street. The Brewers’ bats now have to deal with Teng, who is locked in right now, while young starter Coleman Crow comes in with very little top-level experience to try to check the Astros.
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MLB Pick Astros vs Milwaukee
Astros to win
Milwaukee have been the steadier side over the full season, but Houston are playing like a team that has finally found its feet. This run is not built on a few flashy swings alone. The Astros have stepped up on the mound, getting quality innings from their starters and setting the tone early at the plate.
Teng is coming off two straight scoreless outings, which is a serious weapon against a visiting side that could struggle to impose itself away from home. Crow has talent, but the lack of experience is a real concern against an Astros team that is flying at home. The smart play here is Houston to win.
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