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Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen - Free Football Prediction

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen – Free Football Prediction

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: a first four-win run since 2017 against a side without a league win in seven Eredivisie

Heerenveen have won four games in a row for the first time since September 2017. The latest was a 2-0 KNVB Beker win at Excelsior Maassluis on Wednesday, three days after a 3-2 league win at ADO Den Haag.

Robin Veldman’s side are seventh in the Eredivisie with 15 points from ten games, 18 goals scored and 13 conceded. Before the ADO game they beat Excelsior 4-0 at the Abe Lenstra Stadion, and in September they won 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam.

NEC Nijmegen are 12th on 11 points after two wins, five draws and three defeats, with 17 scored and 18 conceded. They were seventh not long ago, but they’ve gone seven league games without a win and collected five points in that time.

The last three league results were all draws: 1-1 at Ajax on 10 October, 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard on 18 October and 2-2 with Groningen last Sunday. In between, Dick Schreuder’s side drew 1-1 with Levski Sofia and won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League.

Kick-off in Heerenveen is 17:45 UK time on Saturday 31 October. NEC are without a win in their last three meetings with Heerenveen and lost on each of their last two visits to the Abe Lenstra.

The most recent meeting finished 2-2 in Nijmegen on 22 March, with Tjaronn Chery scoring both NEC goals and Trenskow and Meerveld replying. Over the longer history the record is close and slightly favours the visitors: 22 meetings, five Heerenveen wins and eight for NEC. The home win is priced at 2.05, the draw at 3.80 and NEC at 2.90.

Heerenveen: Trenskow in form and three clean sheets in five home games Heerenveen

Jacob Trenskow has five goals and two assists in his last five matches. He’s the main reason a side that drew 0-0 at home to Telstar in September now scores freely.

Heerenveen average 1.4 goals per league game at the Abe Lenstra and have kept three clean sheets in five home matches, including the last two.

They’ve also scored first in four of their last five games. Their most recent league defeat came at PSV, 2-0 on 9 October.

The season started with a 1-0 home win over Twente. AZ won 3-2 at the Abe Lenstra later on, and that’s the only home league defeat on the list.

Heerenveen’s last five matches in all competitions read four wins and one defeat, with 13 goals scored and four conceded. Levi Smans has missed the last two games and isn’t expected back yet. Dirk Proper has a hamstring problem and is day to day.

The cup trip to Excelsior Maassluis on Wednesday was the only midweek game Heerenveen have had in this run, while NEC have played twice a week since the second week of October. Veldman named the same starting eleven for three league games running before the cup tie. I’d expect Vente to lead the line again, with Trenskow, Meerveld and Rivera behind him.

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NEC Nijmegen: seven league games without a win and a stretched squad NEC Nijmegen

NEC have conceded ten of their 18 league goals before half-time. They’ve also gone behind first in four of their last five games, and five of their last seven league matches have ended in draws.

Philippe Sandler isn’t due back until early November, Bram Nuytinck has an ankle injury that should keep him out until late November, Yassin Moslih is out and Emre Mor has a groin problem.

Dusan Tadic is also listed as missing with a calf injury. Ayodele Thomas is back in contention after his own spell out.

Tjaronn Chery has scored in each of his last two away games. He also scored twice in the last meeting with Heerenveen, so he’s the one NEC player Veldman will plan around.

The Europa League has added to the load. Since 10 October NEC have played league games on the weekend and European ties on the Thursday in between, five matches in 16 days.

They are unbeaten in five across all competitions, one win and four draws, with both teams scoring in every one of those games. Away from home over their last five, they’ve won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring eight and conceding 12.

Probable lineup Heerenveen: Klaverboer; Braude, Kersten, Willemsen, Zagaritis; Linday, Courtens; Trenskow, Meerveld, Rivera; Vente

Probable lineup NEC Nijmegen: Crettaz; Fonville, Kaplan, Schuurs; Bischoff, Monteiro, Nejasmic, Kers; Lebreton, Chery, Linssen

Free Football Prediction: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Our prediction: Heerenveen to win (odds 2.05)

I’d take Heerenveen at 2.05. They’ve won four straight, kept clean sheets in their last two home league games and scored first in four of five, while NEC haven’t won a league match in seven and are missing Sandler, Nuytinck, Mor and Tadic.

The prices make NEC 2.90 outsiders, and the market isn’t far off, given NEC have scored in every game of their current unbeaten run. NEC’s run of draws shows they’re hard to put away, and Heerenveen played a cup tie on Wednesday. Against that, NEC have conceded more than half their goals before the break, and Heerenveen are the side that usually scores first.

The head-to-head points the same way, with NEC beaten on their last two visits here, 3-2 in September 2025 and 1-0 the season before. A 2-1 home win is the score I’d expect.

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  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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