- 1 Hearts vs FC Nordsjaelland: Tynecastle’s one-in-32 record meets a side that keeps losing away
- 2 Hearts: nine unbeaten after a nightmare start, and Tynecastle back to its best
- 3 FC Nordsjaelland: two defeats in their first 15, but every loss has come on the road
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Hearts vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hearts vs FC Nordsjaelland: Tynecastle’s one-in-32 record meets a side that keeps losing away 
One defeat in 32 matches at Tynecastle Park. That’s the record Hearts take into their Conference League opener on Thursday night, and the only blemish came against Sturm Graz earlier this season.
It’s a number that matters more than usual here. FC Nordsjaelland have lost three times this season, and all three came away from home. The latest, a 4-1 hammering at Viborg, was their most recent trip on the road.
Hearts arrive in decent shape too. Saturday’s 5-0 win over St Mirren followed a 2-1 loss at Falkirk and a 1-1 draw at Kilmarnock, and it was the kind of result that resets the mood before a European night.
The Danish side’s recent run is flatter. Two league games without a win, a 0-0 with Odense and that Viborg defeat, plus a 3-0 friendly loss to Malmo during the international break. Not the ideal build-up for a trip to Edinburgh.
Kick-off is at 21:00 Paris time on Thursday 15 October, matchday one of the league phase for both clubs.
Wouter Vrancken has already said publicly that Nordsjaelland and Thun are the strongest of the sides Hearts drew from pots five and six. He’s right to be wary. The data paints a specific picture, though, and it leans one way.
Hearts: nine unbeaten after a nightmare start, and Tynecastle back to its best 
Four games, four defeats. That was the start to Vrancken’s reign, including the Champions League exit against Sturm Graz. There’s no sugarcoating it: the season could’ve unravelled right there.
It didn’t. A 4-0 win over Dundee United kicked off a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions, six wins and three draws, and that run carried Hearts into the league phase via a penalty shoot-out against Rapid Vienna after 2-2 draws home and away.
The St Mirren win showed the attacking depth. Calvin Miller, Claudio Braga and Josh McPake all scored, and the trio should keep their places behind James Wilson. That’s a front four with goals spread across it.
The absences are the concern. Craig Halkett, Tom Renaud and Blair Spittal are injured, and Tomas Magnusson is suspended. Losing Halkett hurts a defence that’ll face a quick, patient passing side.
Three straight home wins coming in. One defeat in 32 at Tynecastle. Not a great place to visit.
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FC Nordsjaelland: two defeats in their first 15, but every loss has come on the road 
Just two defeats in their first 15 matches across all competitions. That was Nordsjaelland’s flying start, and it carried them through Conference League qualifying after an opening loss to GAIS.
After that GAIS defeat they won five straight in qualifying, including both legs against St Gallen. Hjalte Boe Rasmussen and Nicklas Rojkjaer scored three goals each during that run, and both should start here.
The issue is what’s happened since. A 2-0 defeat at Copenhagen, a 2-2 draw at Midtjylland, the 4-1 loss at Viborg and a 0-0 with Odense. On the road, this side has looked far more fragile than at home, and every one of their defeats this season has come away from Farum.
There are fitness doubts too. Araphat Mohammed and Souleymane Alio are both touch and go, although both could make it. Off the pitch, assistant sporting director Hossam El Zanaty left the club during the break to return to Egypt for personal reasons. A small change, but not a welcome one before a European opener.
This is a young, well-drilled side that’ll want the ball. Can they keep it at Tynecastle on a European night? That’s a very different question.
Probable lineup Hearts: Reus; Altena, Fagan-Walcott, McCart, Milne; Ageu, Mendy; Miller, Braga, McPake; Wilson
Probable lineup FC Nordsjaelland: Hansen; Nelsson, Salquist, Markmann; Walker, Janssen, Rojkjaer, Norheim; Rasmussen, Berthelsen, Adel
Free Conference League Prediction: Hearts vs FC Nordsjaelland
Our prediction: Hearts to win
One home defeat in 32, three straight home wins and a 5-0 result at the weekend. Against a visitor whose three defeats this season have all come on the road, the home win stands out.
Nordsjaelland’s qualifying run shows they can’t be dismissed, and Rasmussen and Rojkjaer will create chances. But a friendly loss to Malmo and two league games without a win suggest the sharpness from August has faded.
Hearts are missing Halkett, Spittal, Renaud and Magnusson, which keeps us away from any clean-sheet angle. The win itself is well supported by the numbers. Back Hearts.
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