Three meetings, three defeats
Two points separate Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid after six rounds of La Liga, which makes Sunday’s derby at the Metropolitano look like a coin toss. One number argues otherwise. Diego Simeone has faced José Mourinho three times in La Liga and lost all three. The only coach against whom his record in the competition is worse over more games is Xavi Hernández, five meetings and five defeats.
Mourinho’s return to Madrid has gone close to plan. Five wins from six league matches, the single blemish a 1-0 loss at Real Betis, and a 3-2 win over Elche last weekend settled in stoppage time. That result lifted them to second, three points behind Barcelona.
Atlético sit two points back and would climb above their neighbours with a win. Simeone’s side answered consecutive defeats to Athletic Club and Liverpool by beating Real Sociedad and Osasuna, seven goals scored and none conceded across the two.
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Madrid finish games late
No team in La Liga has collected more points than Madrid from goals scored in the 85th minute or later. Four, and Carlos Espí is responsible for two of them, including the winner at Elche. Both of the forward’s goals this season have arrived in the 90th minute or beyond.
Kylian Mbappé leads the club’s scoring with seven. He also sits on 499 goal involvements at club level, 377 goals and 122 assists, so a goal or an assist on Sunday takes him to 500. Vinícius Júnior has warmed to this fixture rather late: two goal involvements across his first nine La Liga games against Atlético, both assists, then four in the last four.
There is a weakness for Atlético to work with. Madrid have lost three of their last five league visits to the Metropolitano, having lost once in the 20 before that. Atlético, for their part, are on the longest home winning run in derbies against Madrid clubs in their history, six.
Where Atlético are vulnerable
Every goal Atlético have conceded in La Liga this season, six of six, has come after the interval. Against a side that scores late and often, that pattern is the obvious thing for Mourinho to press.
Jonathan David has two goals in his first two league games for the Rojiblancos, and a third on Sunday would make him the first player to score in each of his opening three La Liga appearances for the club this century. Atlético lost the last derby 3-2 in March, ending a six-match unbeaten run. Under Simeone they have dropped consecutive league meetings to Madrid only twice, in 2013 and 2020. Opta’s simulations lean Madrid at 46.6%, Atlético at 28.3%, the draw at 25.1%.
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