- 1 FC Utrecht vs Willem II: the league’s worst defence meets one of its weakest attacks
- 2 FC Utrecht: an injury list as long as the goals-against column
- 3 Willem II: two points, six goals and a long road ahead
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Utrecht vs Willem II
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Utrecht vs Willem II: the league’s worst defence meets one of its weakest attacks 
Twenty-four goals conceded in seven Eredivisie games. Nobody in the division has shipped more than FC Utrecht, and that number frames everything about Sunday’s meeting with Willem II at Stadion Galgenwaard, kick-off 12:15 Paris time.
The data paints a specific picture here. Utrecht are giving away 3.4 goals per game, the worst rate in the league. Willem II, the promoted side sitting bottom of the table, are scoring 0.9 per game and landing just 2.7 shots on target per match, 17th of 18. Something has to give, and the question is which weakness wins out.
Context matters. Utrecht’s fixture list has been brutal: home defeats to AZ Alkmaar (1-4) and PSV Eindhoven (1-6), then a 5-0 hammering at Feyenoord just before the international break. Those three results alone account for 15 of the 24 goals against. Strip them out and the picture looks less like a collapse and more like a side that ran into the top three at the worst possible moment.
Willem II can’t point to the same excuse. They’ve collected two points from seven matches, lost 1-0 at home to Fortuna Sittard last time out and haven’t won a league game since coming back up. Three places separate the clubs in the table, with Utrecht sitting one spot above the relegation playoff place.
History backs the hosts too. Willem II have lost seven of the last ten meetings, and their only two wins in that run came in January 2019 and May 2022. Utrecht have taken three of the last four, including a 3-2 home win in September 2024. Is this the fixture where Utrecht finally steady the ship? The evidence says it’s the best chance they’ll get for a while.
FC Utrecht: an injury list as long as the goals-against column 
Anthony Correia’s arrival from Telstar to replace the retired Ron Jans hasn’t been smooth. One league win, at Excelsior (2-1), two 3-3 draws against Sparta Rotterdam and Go Ahead Eagles, and three heavy defeats. That’s the season so far.
The draws tell you plenty. Six goals conceded in two games against mid-table opposition isn’t bad luck, it’s a structural problem. This backline concedes in clusters, and Correia hasn’t found the fix yet.
Going forward, though, Utrecht function. Eleven league goals is more than every bottom-half side except NEC Nijmegen, and they’re averaging 1.6 per game. The problem is who’s available to score them. Artem Stepanov, the joint-top scorer in the Eredivisie with five, is a doubt with an ankle injury.
The treatment room is crowded. Noah Ohio (knee), Alonzo Engwanda (hamstring), Kevin Paredes (knee), Miliano Jonathans (ACL) and Victor Jensen (knee) are all expected to miss out. That’s a serious chunk of the squad.
If Stepanov sits, the load falls on Adrian Blake and Dani de Wit, two league goals each. De Wit’s numbers stand out: nine shots on target across his last ten games, more than anyone else in the squad. He’s the one who has to carry this.
One more detail worth flagging. Utrecht commit 17.3 fouls per game, the highest in the league. Against a side that struggles to create from open play, giving away set-pieces is the one gift they can’t afford.
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Willem II: two points, six goals and a long road ahead 
Six league goals in seven matches. Only Telstar have scored fewer, and that’s the number that makes Willem II’s survival bid look so difficult right now.
John Stegeman’s side have actually been a shade tighter than their hosts, conceding 20 to Utrecht’s 24. But the results don’t bear close inspection: 1-4 at home to NEC, 0-3 at home to Excelsior, 5-1 at Ajax. When this team falls behind, it doesn’t have the firepower to come back.
There have been flashes. A 1-1 draw away at AZ Alkmaar was a genuine result, and the 2-2 with Heerenveen showed they can score twice when the game opens up. Two draws and five defeats, though. That’s the record.
Devin Haen is the only real source of goals. Three league strikes and 18 shots across the last ten games, well clear of Jaden Slory (14) and Uriel van Aalst (13). Take Haen out of the equation and the attack barely registers.
The absences don’t help. Thomas Didillon-Hodl (hamstring), Justin Hoogma (knee), Amine Lachkar (groin) and Armin Culum (foot) are all out, while Kasper Boogaard’s ankle will be checked before kick-off. Losing Hoogma in particular strips experience from a defence that needs every bit of it.
What does that leave Willem II with? A compact block, Haen up top and the hope that Utrecht’s defence hands them something. It’s happened to plenty of sides this season. It can’t be the plan for a whole campaign.
Probable lineup FC Utrecht: Barkas; Horemans, Didden, Panagiotou; Vesterlund, Van Overeem, Broholm, Zagre; Alarcon, De Wit, Blake
Probable lineup Willem II: Delanghe; Ter Avest, Stam, Dekker, Tjoe-A-On; Twigt, Vilhena; Gurbuz, Van Aalst, Slory; Haen
Free Football Prediction: FC Utrecht vs Willem II
Our prediction: FC Utrecht to win (odds 1.51)
Utrecht’s defensive record is ugly, but most of the damage came against AZ, PSV and Feyenoord. Willem II aren’t in that bracket. They’re scoring under a goal a game, landing fewer than three shots on target per match and have lost seven of the last ten meetings in this fixture.
Even without Stepanov, Utrecht have enough through De Wit and Blake to create against a side that has already conceded three or more on three occasions this season. Home advantage, a three-week break to reset after Feyenoord and an opponent without a league win all point in the same direction.
A Willem II goal wouldn’t surprise anyone given Utrecht’s leaks, so we’re not touching a clean sheet. The home win at 1.51 is the cleanest reading of the numbers.
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